Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Tuesday’s 15-game slate on DraftKings. We’ve also got rankings of the top plays at each position.

Pitching Perspective

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There are four pitchers priced above (or near) five figures tonight, and three are worth considering. But Jacob deGrom should not be on your radar tonight. The other three expensive options all have xFIPs under or near 3.00, while deGrom’s xFIP is in the upper-threes along with the value options who will be discussed below. No need to pay up for a guy who been pitching OK but not great when you can save $3,000 – $4,000 and get the same type of pitcher.

The three pricey options you should consider are Jon Lester, Masahiro Tanaka and Drew Smyly. We discussed Lester here yesterday, but his start was pushed back a day thanks to a postponement last night. He’ll have the same great matchup tonight against the Padres, but his price has jumped $400 for no apparent reason. I didn’t love his price yesterday and obviously love it less now, but the other options tonight aren’t as strong as they were last night. Given the quality of the matchup, he’s hard to pass on in cash games. But because the other options aren’t as great tonight, he’ll be heavily owned. I’d fade him in GPPs. Keep an eye on the weather in this one, though it seems another rainout should be avoided.

Tanaka and Smyly are in similar spots tonight. They both have matchups against teams that rank below average in wOBA against pitchers of their particular handedness, but both of their opponents have strikeout rates that rank among the ten lowest in the league. So they have good matchups, but perhaps the matchups lack upside. Tanaka and Smyly are also similar in how they have performed this season. Both have been very stingy with their walk rates, and both are inducing swings-and-misses at a rate better than 13 percent. Smyly has turned those whiffs into a strikeout rate over 30 percent while Tanaka’s strikeout rate isn’t far above league average, sitting at 22.5 percent. But with similar whiff rates, expect the gap between their strikeout rates to narrow at some point. Of the two, give me Tanaka and the $700 I can save by rostering him instead of Smyly.

As for value options, start by looking to the Minnesota at Baltimore game. Jose Berrios will start for the Twins today after having his scheduled start rained out last night. We discussed him here yesterday, and, to rehash that breakdown, the story on Berrios is that he’s striking lots of guys out but not pitching deep into games. For that reason he’s only a GPP option, but he’s a nice value option for that type of contest.

On the other side of that game, Kevin Gausman will make his scheduled start today while yesterday’s scheduled starter, Tyler Wilson, will be pushed back to Wednesday. Gausman has not pitched as well through three starts as his 1.42 ERA would indicate, but he has pitched well enough. His walk rate is 4.3 percent, and it’s supported by a much higher percentage of first pitch strikes. He’s still not producing the huge strikeout numbers that his big velocity leads you to believe he could put up, but he is striking guys out around a league average rate. The best thing going for Gausman today is ball park and matchup. He’s getting a positive park shift on the road in Minnesota, and the the matchup is good as the Twins rank 19th in wOBA and have the 10th highest strikeout rate in the league vs. RHP.

The only option cheaper than any discussed above  that I could consider is Alex Wood. Wood will face the Mets who have the 10th highest strikeout rate vs. LHP. They also have the 10th best wOBA vs. LHP, so there’s some risk and upside in this matchup. Wood has been decent on the season with strikeout and walk rates near league average and a very good ground ball rate of 57 percent. But what intrigues me about Wood is his last two starts. Against one bad opponent (San Diego) and one good opponent (Toronto) Wood has struck out 16 and walked just two over 12 innings. Wood has typical splits, and New York’s best bats are left-handed for the most part, so this may be the right matchup for a guy who’s on a bit of a roll.

Stack Options

It goes without saying that you can stack either team playing in Coors tonight. I fade Coors in GPPs, but if you’d like to stack Rockies or Diamondbacks, be my guest.

Boston Red Sox – The Sox have the second best wRC+ in the league in home games, but they’re below average against lefties and will face a left-hander today. The main reason they’ve posted poor numbers against lefties is that three right-handed hitters, Hanley, Pedroia, and Mookie, have all been well below average against lefties. But we’re talking about a sample size of about 20 PA for each guy. All three of those guys are well above average in their careers with the platoon advantage, so they’ll most definitely bounce back and Boston’s team wOBA against lefties will as well. Mookie and Hanley would be my preferred cash plays with Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts and David Ortiz being the others that could be included in a big Boston stack.

Chicago Cubs – Chicago will get the same matchup they were slated to get yesterday. Here’s what I wrote in yesterday’s post:

Cesar Vargas has a 1.10 ERA through three starts, but you can immediately see something’s wrong when you see his WHIP of 1.35. His xFIP is 4.58 thanks to below average strikeout and walk rates, particularly his walk rate of 13.4 percent. He has managed to strand 97.2 percent of base runners allowed, and that’s going to self-correct in a hurry. The two through five hitters for the Cubbies make for a great stack against Vargas. They can throw three left-handers at the righty, Jason Heyward, Anthony Rizzo and Ben Zobrist, plus RHH Kris Bryant who owns a .448 wOBA at home against RHP in his young career.

Houston Astros – Despite leaning a bit right-handed in their lineup, the Astros rank 10th in wOBA and fourth in ISO vs. RHP. Their studs, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa, really don’t have platoon issues, and George Springer is above average against righties as well. And then they have plenty of lefties down the order who can excel against right-handers, guys like Colby Rasmus, Luis Valbuena, Preston Tucker and Jason Castro. Springer and Correa are priced well for cash use, and Tucker is a nice value option if you need one. The rest could be included in a stack.

Oakland Athletics – It’s unclear to me why the Red Sox need to start Sean O’Sullivan, who was terrible in 13 starts with the Phillies last year, but that’s apparently what they’re doing tonight. O’Sullivan had a 6.18 ERA (5.37 xFIP) last year and gave up a little more than two home runs per nine innings. Lefties raked against him with a wOBA of .481, and he walked more lefties than he struck out. Josh Reddick, Coco Crisp, Stephen Vogt, Jed Lowrie and Yonder Alonso are all left-handed options with Lowrie and Crisp carrying the most value potential. Also feel free to include Khris Davis’ power bat in any Oakland stack.

Philadelphia Phillies – All of the stack options discussed above are somewhat chalky, though I think that matters less when there’s a Coors game. Enough ownership will be on Rockies and D’Backs that other ownership levels will be stifled a bit. But if you truly want to be contrarian, consider the Phils tonight. They’ll face Matt Wisler who is downright awful against left-handed hitters. In almost 150 big league innings lefties have a .391 wOBA against him, and his xFIP against lefties is an even 6.00. He’s given up 1.82 home runs per nine innings to lefties, and he has walked more of them than he has struck out. Ryan Howard, Odubel Herrera and Cesar Hernandez are your best options from the left side, and any other lefties that end up in the lineup are worth a look as well. Right-hander Maikel Franco could be included in a stack if necessary to give you a string of consecutive hitters.

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Buster Posey – $3,600
2. Brian McCann – $3,600
3. Stephen Vogt – $3,600
4. Welington Castillo – $4,700
5. Yadier Molina – $2,900

First Base

1. Paul Goldschmidt – $5,600
2. Hanley Ramirez – $4,400
3. Joey Votto – $4,500
4. John Jaso – $3,900
5. Steve Pearce – $2,900

Second Base

1. Jose Altuve – $5,000
2. Dustin Pedroia – $4,400
3. Jed Lowrie – $3,400
4. Derek Dietrich – $3,300
5. Cesar Hernandez – $2,600

Third Base

1. Kris Bryant – $4,700
2. Brandon Drury – $4,300
3. Nolan Arenado – $5,500
4. Maikel Franco – $3,300
5. Luis Valbuena – $2,900

Shortstop

1. Carlos Correa – $4,300
2. Xander Bogaerts – $4,500
3. Nick Ahmed – $3,200
4. Corey Seager – $3,200
5. Francisco Lindor – $4,000

Outfield

1. Carlos Gonzalez – $4,700
2. Mookie Betts – $4,800
3. Charlie Blackmon – $4,600
4. Andrew McCutchen – $4,900
5. George Springer – $4,100
6. Jason Heyward – $4,000
7. Matt Holliday – $3,200
8. Coco Crisp – $3,600
9. Josh Reddick – $4,300
10. Mike Trout – $5,100
11. Chris Owings – $3,400
12. Preston Tucker – $2,900

Starting Pitcher

1. Masahiro Tanaka – $9,800
2. Jon Lester – $12,200
3. Drew Smyly – $10,500
4. Kevin Gausman – $8,200
5. Alex Wood – $6,600
6. Jose Berrios – $7,000

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