Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Thursday’s eight-game evening slate on DraftKings. We’ve also got rankings of the top plays at each position.

Pitching Perspective

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Clayton Kershaw. He’s the only qualified starter with an xFIP under 2.00, and he leads all qualified starters in K-BB% by almost six percentage points. Tonight he’s facing the Mets who have the fourth highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers. Yeah, the Mets are slightly above average in wOBA vs. LHP, but that’s hardly enough to scare you off Kershaw. Feel free to fade him in GPPs as he’ll surely be highly owned, but I have no idea how you fade him in cash games.

Other expensive options worth considering are David Price and Vince Velasquez, but you can pass on Johnny Cueto. I have some concern about Price since he has lost velocity and is missing the zone a bit more than normal, which could indicate some sort of injury. But his strikeout and walk numbers are great, so he’s not someone I’m ignoring just yet. He has a tough matchup against Houston who ranks sixth in wOBA vs. LHP, but there’s some upside as the Astros have the 11th highest strikeout rate vs. LHP. Vince Velasquez has a matchup opposite to that of Price. He’ll face the Braves who rank dead last in wOBA vs. RHP but have a lower-than-average strikeout rate vs. RHP. I think both are over-priced but not so much so that they can’t be used in GPPs if you like them.

In the mid-price range Zack Greinke is worth a look if for no other reason than he’s never in the mid-price range. Yeah, he has a 5.15 ERA, but things aren’t as bad as they seem. For one thing, his xFIP is in the mid threes. That’s a bit worse than where it sat the last two seasons, but it’s still more than respectable. And his strikeout rate is down in the low 20’s, but his swinging strike rate is still where it’s been the last couple of seasons (around 12 percent), so his K rate could easily be back in the mid 20’s very soon. He’s still stingy with walks, his velocity isn’t down to a significant degree, and his ground ball rate is roughly the same. Now, his new home ball park hurts him and tonight’s matchup with the Giants is tough as they have the lowest strikeout rate in the league vs. RHP. But $8,400 is still too low of a price for this pitcher. He should be a bit more than $9,000 in my estimation, so there’s some value potential here. He’s a good option for GPPs.

The cheapest guy I can recommend today is Ubaldo Jimenez. Walks always make him a bit risky as he has walked four batters in half of his six starts. But he also has at least six strikeouts in four of six starts and is striking out almost a batter per inning. He’s also inducing ground balls at a very healthy clip (55.3 percent). He’s got a matchup with upside tonight against the Tigers who have the fifth highest strikeout rate in the league vs. RHP. And lest you think that’s just because Max Scherzer struck them out 20 times last night, they had the sixth highest strikeout rate in the league prior to Wednesday’s game. They’re a bit above average in terms of wOBA and ISO vs. RHP, but they’re not the scariest matchup. At $7,000, Ubaldo may have the most value potential of the night.

Stack Options

Baltimore Orioles – This is straight chalk as the O’s easily have the highest implied run total of the day in Vegas. But there aren’t many horrendously bad pitchers going today, and Mike Pelfrey is starting, so he sticks out like a sore thumb. The O’s have the second highest wOBA vs. RHP and the fourth highest wOBA at home, so they’re going to be all Pelfrey can handle. And Pelfrey can’t handle much as his 6.23 ERA and 1.78 HR/9 indicate. The best options are left-handed Chris Davis and reverse splits man Adam Jones. Baltimore stacks could be filled out with any of Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo,  Joey Rickard, and whoever starts behind the plate.

Boston Red Sox – The Sox started out slow against left-handed pitching, but they got right in the last couple of days by beating up on some bad Oakland left-handers. They now own the fifth best wOBA in the league vs. LHP. Tonight they’ll face another left-hander in Dallas Keuchel. He’s not Eric Surkamp, whom they faced yesterday, but he’s also not Dallas Keuchel who won the Cy Young last year. He has a 4.70 ERA and 4.01 SIERA, so he’s certainly hittable. His strikeout and walk rates are down as his ground ball rate, though it still remains well above average. His swinging strike rate is as good as it was last year (a bit better in fact), so some strikeouts may come back. But the larger point is that he’s been bad enough that the Sox are an option tonight. There’s not a lot of value with Sox since they’ve been going so well lately, but Mookie Betts could be used in cash games. Otherwise, Boston should just be used for stacking with Betts, Dustin Pedroia (though 2B is thin enough that Pedroia could be used in cash), Hanley Ramirez and Xander Boagerts.

Milwaukee Brewers – James Shields lost the zone and lost velocity last year, and he hasn’t gotten either back this year. His velocity is down another tick, and he’s added a bad first pitch strike rate to an already bad zone percentage. He covered it up last year by managing to maintain a high strikeout rate, but even that has left him as well this year. His ERA is somehow 3.60, but his SIERA and xFIP average out to be a full run higher than his ERA, so lesser run prevention should be coming. He’s away from PETCO tonight in hitter-friendly Milwaukee. Ryan Braun is a great option today, and whoever plays right field is an option. Domingo Santana usually plays there and is priced well, but Alex Presley has been playing there some as Santana deals with a shoulder issue. Presley is actually the preferable option as he would provide a ton of value at the minimum price. Milwaukee stacks could be filled out with Jonathan Lucroy, Jonathan Villar and Aaron Hill.

San Diego Padres – On the other side of that game, the Padres will take on Jimmy Nelson. Nelson has always struggled with walks and continues to do so, and he’s been unable to induce whiffs as his swinging strike rate is very, very low at only 6.3 percent. The Padres are obviously getting a positive park shift on the road in Milwaukee, and Nelson has given up 1.19 HR/9 at home in his career, so the Padres could put a couple over the fence. The best options are Matt Kemp and Wil Myers, while Alexei Ramirez, Melvin Upton and whoever starts behind the plate could be used in stacks. Of the stacks listed here, this is probably the only one that could be considered a bit contrarian, but the Pads do have an above average implied run total in Vegas.

St. Louis Cardinals – Jered Weaver has always been a fly ball pitcher, and formerly good stuff along with a favorable home ball park usually kept his home run rate lower than average. But since he’s lost the ability to throw it at least around 87 mph, his home run rate has jumped and doesn’t figure to come back down. The Cardinals rank third in the league in wOBA vs. RHP and have the highest ISO vs. RHP, so this is a terrible matchup for Weaver. Matt Carpenter is probably the best option, but Matt Holliday, Brandon Moss and Matt Adams are all good values. A Cards stack could also include Kolten Wong and Yadier Molina.

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Brian McCann – $3,500
2. Buster Posey – $4,000
3. Derek Norris – $3,000
4. Yasmani Grandal – $3,100

First Base

1. Chris Davis – $5,200
2. Wil Myers – $3,800
3. Matt Adams – $3,000
4. Miguel Cabrera – $5,100

Second Base

1. Dustin Pedroia – $4,300
2. Jose Altuve – $5,300
3. Kolten Wong – $3,400
4. Cesar Hernandez – $2,600

Third Base

1. Matt Carpenter – $4,400
2. Alex Rodriguez – $3,500
3. Maikel Franco – $3,400
4. Jake Lamb – $3,300

Shortstop

1. Carlos Correa – $4,200
2. Jonathan Villar – $4,000
3. Corey Seager – $3,700
4. Alexei Ramirez – $2,900

Outfield

1. Ryan Braun – $4,500
2. Adam Jones – $4,400
3. Matt Kemp – $4,300
4. Mike Trout – $4,800
5. George Springer – $4,100
6. Mookie Betts – $4,900
7. Alex Presley – $2,000
8. Matt Holliday – $3,400
9. Brandon Moss – $3,500
10. Domingo Santana – $3,100

Starting Pitcher

1. Clayton Kershaw – $13,300
2. Vincent Velasquez – $10,900
3. Ubaldo Jimenez – $7,000
4. Zack Greinke – $8,400
5. David Price – $11,100

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