Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Friday’s 15-game slate on FanDuel. We’ve also got rankings of the top plays at each position.

Pitching Perspective

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Pitching is tough today. There are a lot of guys with bad peripherals going that some of the projection systems I look at still like despite the concerning underlying numbers. And then the pricing on the top options ranges from sharp to just plain over-priced. Jake Arietta is great, but I can’t pay 12K for him in a tough matchup against a Giants team that’s above average against right-handers and strikes out less than almost anyone in the league. Corey Kluber and Gerrit Cole are priced about right, but their matchups aren’t ideal either. Kluber will face Boston who has a 128 wRC+ vs. RHP, and Cole will face Colorado who has one of the five lowest strikeout rates of any team against the pitcher of the particular handedness they are facing today. But Cole’s matchup with the Rox isn’t overly scary as they’re below average against right-handers overall and are away from Coors, so Cole is the top option for me today.

Other guys with xFIPs below 4.00 this year that can’t be rostered include Steven Matz who will be on a limited pitch count tonight, Eddie Butler who is too bad against lefties to trust, and Aaron Sanchez and Tanner Roark who are plain over-priced. Jose Quintana and Aaron Nola also strike me as over-priced but far less risky than Sanchez and Roark. Both Quintana and Nola limit walks, and their strikeout rates are above average and well above average, respectively. The problem (in addition to slightly inflated price tags) is that their matchups lack upside. They’re both facing teams who have a wRC+ that is below average against pitchers of their particular handedness, but those teams also have lower-than-average strikeout rates. I don’t think they’re cheap enough not to just spend a bit extra and roster Cole, but they’re similar plays to Cole at a slightly reduced price point.

Cheaper, riskier pitching options are something I’m hesitant to roster on a one-pitcher site like FD, but Scott Kazmir and Tyler Duffey have some upside in their matchups. Kazmir will face the the Padres who have a 25.9 percent strikeout rate vs. LHP, which is the highest for any team against the pitcher of the particular handedness they are facing today. Duffey will face the Jays who have the fifth highest strikeout rate of any team against the pitcher of the particular handedness they are facing today. Duffey has pitched well this year with a 3.50 xFIP thanks to strikeout and walk rates both safely better than league average. Both guys would make for good GPP plays.

Stack Options

The Pittsburgh Pirates lead the way today in implied run totals with an implied total of 4.9 in Vegas. This makes plenty of sense against Eddie Butler who is brutally bad against left-handed hitters. Butler has faced 255 left-handers in his career (about 51 innings worth) and they have a .450 wOBA against Butler with more walks than strikeouts. John Jaso and Gregory Polanco are lefties who will likely hit first and third in the order, so they’re excellent options. Matt Joyce often hits in the six hole against righties and is a good option as well. To string together a Pirates stack, include Andrew McCutchen in the two hole.

After Pittsburgh there is a group of about eight teams with similar implied run totals, not as high as Pittsburgh but separated from the rest of the pack. Among these teams, the New York Mets and Houston Astros catch my eye.

The Mets will face RHP Wily Peralta who unsurprisingly struggles against lefties but isn’t much better against righties. Anytime hitters from both sides of the plate are in play, it’s much easier to string together a stack. The Mets I like most are Curtis Granderson, Yoenis Cespedes, Lucas Duda and David Wright. The Mets have been using a lot of different lineups lately, but if those four end up in the top five in the order, I’d like them as a stack. In the event one of those guys sits tonight or hits down the order, Michael Conforto would also be an option to include in a stack.

As for the Astros, they’re back home to take on Colby Lewis and the Rangers. The Astros are dangerous at home as they rank fifth in wRC+ at home dating back to last season (they rank seventh in wRC+ at home for just this season). Colby Lewis has no business having an ERA in the threes, much less all the way down at 3.12. Somehow, despite allowing 1.73 home runs per nine innings, his strand rate is above 90 percent. That’s sure to come down at some point, and his ERA will rise when it does. Houston’s best right-handers, Jose Altuve, George Springer and Carlos Correa don’t have huge split issues, so don’t hesitate to use them against Lewis. The same goes for Evan Gattis. Among their lefties, Colby Rasmus and Luis Valbuena are the best options. I’m not one for BvP stats, but if you like that sort of thing, Valbuena is 4-for-15 against Lewis with two home runs.

If you’re looking for less chalky options, consider the game between the Baltimore Orioles and the Los Angeles Angels. The O’s will send Mike Wright to the mound, and dating back to last year Wright has an xFIP over 5.00 against both left- and right-handed hitters. Again, that makes stacking a bit easier. The obvious guys to stack are Kole Calhoun, Mike Trout and Albert Pujols who hit 2-3-4 in the order. On either side of them in the lineup are Yunel Escobar and C.J. Cron. Both could be added to an Angels stack, though they play corner positions where you might prefer to use more consistent hitters. Escobar is probably easier to stomach at 3B.

The Angels will start Hector Santiago tonight. Santiago is a fly ball pitcher who has always dealt with home run issues. But he pitches in a good park for pitcher’s with that problem. Last year his ERA was two runs lower at home than it was on the road, and he gave up half a home run less per nine innings in home starts. That said, he still gave up multiple home runs in four home starts last year, and he allowed multiple home runs in a similarly pitcher-friendly park in Oakland earlier this year. If you’re going with an O’s stack, stick with the pop in the middle of the order, Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo, who usually hit 2-3-4-5 in the order.

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Evan Gattis
2. Wilson Ramos
3. Yan Gomes
4. Jason Castro
5. Brian McCann

First Base

1. Anthony Rizzo
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Joey Votto
4. Lucas Duda
5. John Jaso

Second Base

1. Jose Altuve
2. Robinson Cano
3. Jason Kipnis
4. Brian Dozier

Third Base

1. Josh Donaldson
2. Anthony Rendon
3. David Wright
4. Luis Valbuena

Shortstop

1. Manny Machado
2. Troy Tulowitzki
3. Marcus Semien
4. Asdrubal Cabrera

Outfield

1. Mike Trout
2. George Springer
3. Gregory Polanco
4. Andrew McCutchen
5. Giancarlo Stanton
6. Adam Jones
7. Curtis Granderson
8. Matt Kemp
9. Yasiel Puig
10. Oswaldo Arcia

Starting Pitcher

1. Gerrit Cole
2. Corey Kluber
3. Aaron Nola
4. Jose Quintana
5. Scott Kazmir
6. Tyler Duffey

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