Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Friday’s 14-game evening slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. We’ve also got projections derived from FanGraphs’ Depth Chart projections and rankings of the top plays at each position.

Pitching Perspective

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Don’t overthink it in cash games. Noah Syndergaard is just too obvious. He leads the league in xFIP and is second in K-BB%, trailing only Clayton Kershaw. And his matchup against San Diego is as good as it gets. The Padres have the second worst wOBA and third worst strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Relative to how far ahead of today’s other starters Syndergaard is in the projections embedded at the bottom of this post, his price on FD isn’t that far out ahead of the other expensive starters. On DK there is some separation between his price and the other expensive guys, so perhaps you could go with a different option there as your SP1. And you can also fade him in GPPs if you’d like. Despite this being an almost full slate and there being other ace options on the slate, he still figures to be highly owned.

The other expensive options I would consider are Madison Bumgarner, Chris Archer and Danny Salazar, but they all have warts. With Bumgarner, I’m still wary that he’s pitching hurt. He also has a high risk/high reward matchup against the Rockies who rank second in wOBA but also have the fourth highest strikeout rate against LHP. His price isn’t right on FD, so I wouldn’t take the risk there. But he is priced well enough to consider on DK.

Archer’s wart is obvious. His 5.01 ERA sticks out like a sore thumb. But there are reasons for optimism. For one thing, he ranks ninth among 104 qualified starters in strikeout rate. Were he simply to get some good batted ball luck for one start, all those strikeouts give him upside in every single start. And so far his batted ball luck hasn’t been good as he has a .358 BABIP and 25 percent HR/FB rate. He does have the highest hard hit rate allowed among qualified starters, but his 44.3 percent hard hit rate is nine points higher than the worst hard hit rate allowed by anyone in 2015. To some degree the hard contact he has allowed is most assuredly small sample size BS. The biggest problem tonight may be that his matchup neutralizes his biggest asset as the Angels have the second lowest strikeout rate against RHP, and they’re way below the team with the third lowest strikeout rate. But, like Bumgarner, he’s priced well on DK and could be worth a gamble there.

In terms of expected performance, I trust Bumgarner and Archer more than I do Salazar. I’m just wary Bumgarner is hurt, though there’s no solid confirmation that he is. And I see enough in Archer’s numbers to feel pretty confident he’s gonna be fine at some point soon. But Salazar worries me. He’s walking way too many guys, and it’s all being covered up by a .197 BABIP. But he still has to be considered because the strikeouts are there, and he’s a fair bit cheaper than Bumgarner and Archer, especially on FD. His matchup with the Royals is meh. They’re below average against RHP, but the also strikeout less than average. But Salazar is priced well enough that he could be a GPP option on FD.

Speaking of FD-only options, Wei-Yin Chen is an option to be your cash game pitcher on FD if you’re finding it too difficult to build a lineup you like with Syndergaard as your pitcher. Chen does not have strikeout stuff; he ranks 70th among 104 qualified starters in strikeout rate. But he could find a few more strikeouts tonight against a Phillies team that has the worst wOBA and the worst strikeout rate in the league against LHP. Forget about him on DK, but if you want a cheap cash pitcher on FD, here’s your guy.

Two other lefties are options tonight, Rich Hill against the Orioles and Drew Pomeranz against the Mets. Both teams have slightly above average strikeout rates against LHP, and both pitchers are striking out more than 11 batters per nine innings, so there’s strikeout upside here. The downsides are that the Mets rank fifth in wOBA against LHP, and Hill will have to start in hitter-friendly Baltimore as opposed to Oakland. Both guys are priced a bit better on DK but are also priced well enough on FD. Hill is probably a GPP-only option, and he and Salazar would be in consideration as FD GPP starters. Hill could also be a GPP option on DK. The same could be said of Pomeranz, but he also has a bit of cash appeal as your SP2 on DK.

Stack Options

Let’s start with two West Coast teams on the road playing in hitter-friendly ball parks against starters who struggle with left-handed hitters.

First, the Oakland Athletics will be in Baltimore facing Ubaldo Jimenez. Ubaldo isn’t off to a great start as he’s walking almost five batters per inning, and he’s really struggling against lefties who have a .429 wOBA against him. He was better against lefties last year, but a below average BABIP helped, and he was still allowing homers to them at an above average rate. Josh Reddick is likely to be in all my lineups tonight, and he shouldn’t be left out of any FD lineups as he’s way too cheap there. Billy Burns and Coco Crisp have been hitting fairly well lately, though Burns is too expensive on DK to be used outside of an Oakland stack. Jed Lowrie, Chris Coghlan, Stephen Vogt and Yonder Alonso haven’t been going so well, but they’re also stack options. Vogt is a cash option simply because of how shallow the catcher position is, and Coghlan could be a cash play on FD given that he’s only $100 over the minimum price and has been 10 percent better than league average against RHP in his career.

The Seattle Mariners are in a similar situation as they’ll be in Houston taking on Doug Fister. Fister has a 4.60 ERA overall (4.59 xFIP) and lefties have a .409 wOBA against him. He has faced 74 lefties total and five of them have homered, which works out to a home run about once every 15 plate appearances. The M’s can throw a lot of lefties at Fister, and Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager are the best options, though they’re not huge values or anything. In particular, Cano is pricey enough on DK that I might look elsewhere at 2B. Lefty value options include Seth Smith, Leonys Martin and Adam Lind. Of those three, Smith and Martin have been going well lately. Ketel Marte is also a consideration since shortstop is a shallow position, and Nelson Cruz can be included in any Seattle stack.

No game opened with a total higher than 8.5 runs in Vegas, and one of the games with an 8.5 total was Milwaukee at Cincinnati. The Reds will send Timothy Adleman to the hill for his second career start, and the Brewers will go with Tyler Cravy. Adleman was fine in his first start, but he’s a 28-year-old who has 23 innings above Double-A ball. In 150 innings at that level last year he had strikeout and walk rates that were worse than the major league average. The Brewers have been slightly above average against right-handed pitching and have the 10th highest ISO against RHP. Switch-hitting shortstop Jonathan Villar has been going well lately and is priced fairly well. Left-handed outfielder Kirk Nieuwenhuis is also a nice value option. Chris Carter and Ryan Braun have also been hitting well and make for good options, not even just as stack options. And Jonathan Lucroy is in consideration with Vogt at the thin catcher position.

As for the Reds, their lefties have a great matchup with Cravy who has a 5.28 career xFIP against lefties and as many walks against them as he has strikeouts. Jay Bruce and Joey Votto are your best (aka cash) options with Bruce being the better value of the two and Votto really only being priced for use on FD. Switch-hitters Billy Hamilton and Tucker Barnhart could also be used in a Cincy stack as could right-handers Brandon Phillips and Adam Duvall (who has homered in three straight games).

Player Rankings

**Players are listed according to their positional eligibility on FanDuel.

Catcher

1. Stephen Vogt (better value on FD)
2. Jonathan Lucroy
3. Hector Sanchez (better value on DK)
4. Yasmani Grandal
5. Tucker Barnhart
6. Dioner Navarro

First Base

1. Chris Carter (better value on FD)
2. Joey Votto (better value on FD)
3. Mark Teixeira
4. Adrian Gonzalez
5. Adam Lind (better value on FD)

Second Base

1. Robinson Cano (better value on FD)
2. Jason Kipnis
3. Brandon Phillips (better value on FD)
4. Colin Walsh
5. Rougned Odor (better value on DK)
6. Jed Lowrie

Third Base

1. Kyle Seager
2. Chris Coghlan (better value on FD)
3. Aaron Hill
4. Jake Lamb
5. Luis Valbuena

Shortstop

1. Jonathan Villar
2. Ketel Marte (better value on FD)
3. Carlos Correa
4. Brad Miller
5. Didi Gregorius

Outfield

1. Josh Reddick (better value on FD)
2. Jay Bruce
3. Ryan Braun
4. David Peralta
5. Adam Eaton
6. Kirk Nieuwenhuis (better value on FD)
7. Coco Crisp
8. Billy Hamilton (better value on FD)
9. Seth Smith
10. Michael Brantley
11. Adam Duvall

Starting Pitcher

1. Noah Syndergaard
2. Madison Bumgarner
3. Danny Salazar
4. Drew Pomeranz
5. Rich Hill
6. Wei-Yin Chen
7. Chris Archer

Research Chart

Below you’ll find my research chart for the day. Projections are derived from FanGraphs’ Depth Chart projections and adjusted for matchup and ballpark. The closer a color is to green the better and the closer a color is to red the worse. You can download the research chart here.

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