Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Monday’s 13-game slate on DraftKings. We’ve also got rankings of the top plays at each position.

Pitching Perspective

There are five pitchers priced over $11,000 tonight, and the sixth most expensive guy is only $8,200, so let’s first parse the expensive guys. We can begin by throwing out Corey Kluber and Felix Hernandez. Kluber is significantly more expensive than the other four guys, and there’s nothing in his performance to date or his matchup that justifies such a gap in salary. I suppose there’s strikeout upside in his matchup with Houston, but that’s not a good enough reason for his salary to be more expensive than anyone else by $1,600. As for Felix, the dude is hurt. His fastball velocity is down over 2 mph, and his zone percentage is noticeably down. Those are usually good signs that a guy is pitching hurt.

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That leaves us with Jon Lester, Stephen Strasburg and Jose Fernandez. All three have plenty of strikeout upside in their matchup as their opponents all have the eighth highest strikeout rate or higher against pitchers of each starter’s handedness. The best matchup probably belongs to Lester against the Padres who have the fourth highest strikeout rate against lefties and rank 18th in wOBA. But Lester has the lowest strikeout rate of the trio by a decent margin, and he’s slightly more expensive than the other two. He understandably feels safe for cash games, but he lacks the upside and value potential of the other two options. Keep an eye on the weather in Chicago closer to lock as rain could be an issue.

Fernandez is the guy with the most upside. He’s striking out over 12 batters per nine and leads all qualified starters in strikeout rate. The problem is that he’s walking about four batters per inning, and with the Marlins mindful of his pitch counts, he’s not pitching deep into games. He hasn’t pitched more than six innings in any of his six starts. He probably makes less sense in cash games, but feel free to fire him up in GPPs.

And then there’s Strasburg who works both as a cash and a GPP option. He’s got the strikeout upside as he’s striking out about 10 batters per nine, and he’s been remarkably consistent recently. Since returning from an injury on June 23 of last year, he has made 19 starts and has a 1.96 ERA backed up by a 2.26 xFIP. His K:BB ratio over that time frame is about 7.5:1. He’s been dominant, and it’s hard to find any reason not to trust him. Rain could also potentially be an issue in this game, but Lester looks like a risker play based on weather.

As for value options, Jose Berrios and Mike Fiers are the names that jump off the spreadsheet. Berrios is a GPP option given that he’s struck out 13 batters in his first 9 1/3 major league innings. The problem is that he only has that many innings in two starts. He’s striking out a lot of batters and walking a lot of batters, so he’s not being efficient enough to pitch deep into games. He’s thrown between 90 and 100 pitches in each start, so it’s not like the Twins are being overly cautious with their young stud. But they’re not likely to let him throw much more than that, and he has to show he can be a little more efficient before cash game usage. Once again, rain could be an issue in this one.

Fiers is a different story. He has cut back his walk rate significantly this season and has been downright stingy with a walk rate of 2.8 percent. He’s also seen his strikeout rate fall, which isn’t ideal, but that efficiency gives him the chance to go deep in a game if he’s not bombed out of it. I say bombed because he has allowed eight home runs in six starts. His career HR/9 is higher than average a 1.2, but he’s certainly had a run of bad luck with a HR/9 of 2.14 so far this season. He’s definitely risky, and the Indians rank 10th in wOBA vs. RHP, but there’s value at his price point.

Other cheap options I could consider are Tyler Chatwood and, getting real cheap, Ivan Nova. Chatwood isn’t that much cheaper than Berrios and Fiers and probably not cheap enough to take on the Coors risk. But he has a solid xFIP of 3.71, and he keeps the ball on the ground a lot, so he could be worth a shot in a middling matchup with Arizona. Nova has been pitching in long relief, so who knows what to make of him in his first start of the season. There’s always some risk in situations like these that he won’t go deep into the game. Plus, he’s been striking out almost no one in his relief role. He’ll face the Royals who have been below average vs. RHP, but they don’t strike out much.

Stack Options

It goes without saying that you can stack either team playing in Coors tonight. I fade Coors in GPPs, but if you’d like to stack Rockies or Diamondbacks, be my guest.

Boston Red Sox – The Sox will face RHP Sonny Gray tonight, and they’ve been very good against RHP so far. They rank third in wOBA against them and second in slugging percentage. It’s a home game as well, and they rank fourth in wOBA in home games. They’ll face the semi-struggling Sonny Gray who has a 4.84 ERA (3.93 xFIP). Gray doesn’t have a traditional split, so there’s no need to avoid Boston’s right-handed hitters. Mookie Betts is a nice value, and Hanley, Pedroia and Bogaerts could all be used in a stack. From the left side, David Ortiz should be in a Boston stack, and Brock Holt is a value option if you need one.

Chicago Cubs – Cesar Vargas has a 1.10 ERA through three starts, but you can immediately see something’s wrong when you see his WHIP of 1.35. His xFIP is 4.58 thanks to below average strikeout and walk rates, particularly his walk rate of 13.4 percent. He has managed to strand 97.2 percent of base runners allowed, and that’s going to self-correct in a hurry. The two through five hitters for the Cubbies make for a great stack against Vargas. They can throw three left-handers at the righty, Jason Heyward, Anthony Rizzo and Ben Zobrist, plus RHH Kris Bryant who owns a .448 wOBA at home against RHP in his young career.

Chicago White Sox – Don’t let Colby Lewis’ 3.32 ERA fool you. He still sucks. His xFIP is 4.84, which is near his ERA of 4.66 from last year. Somehow he has managed to strand 93.1 percent of base runners allowed despite allowing almost two home runs per nine innings. Regression cometh and that right soon. Lefties hit him a bit better, so Adam Eaton at the top of the lineup is a good option, and Jimmy Rollins the switch-hitter will play. But the big bats, Jose Abreu and Todd Frazier, should certainly be included in a stack. Other options to throw in there are whoever starts behind the plate and Brett Lawrie.

New York Yankees – Fly ball machine Chris Young will face the Yankees in Yankee stadium tonight, and he’ll do so on a night where the wind will be blowing out nicely to right field. That benefits lefties the most, and lefties have a .419 wOBA against Young so far this season. This is one of those plays that feels so obvious that the Yankees are bound to put up a goose egg just because the universe hates us. Alas, Brett Gardner, Mark Teixeira and Brian McCann are all attractive options tonight at affordable price points. Didi Gregorius is also a cheap option if you need it, and despite being right-handed, Starlin Castro could be included in a stack. He hit out of the two-hole Sunday against a right-hander, so Gardner-Castro-McCann-Teixeira could well be 1-2-3-4 in the lineup tonight.

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Brian McCann – $3,600
2. Stephen Vogt – $3,400
3. Buster Posey – $4,000
4. Dustin Garneau – $3,000
5. Welington Castillo – $4,400

First Base

1. Paul Goldschmidt – $5,200
2. Mark Teixeira – $3,900
3. Anthony Rizzo – $5,400
4. Prince Fielder – $4,100
5. David Ortiz – $4,900
6. Jose Abreu – $4,800

Second Base

1. Jean Segura – $4,400
2. Dustin Pedroia – $4,000
3. Jose Altuve – $4,300
4. Starlin Castro – $3,300

Third Base

1. Kris Bryant – $4,700
2. Jake Lamb – $4,000
3. Miguel Sano – $4,200
4. Nolan Arenado – $5,500

Shortstop

1. Xander Bogaerts – $4,000
2. Jimmy Rollins – $3,600
3. Carlos Correa – $3,500
4. Brad Miller – $2,800
5. Trevor Story – $5,100

Outfield

1. Charlie Blackmon – $4,600
2. Carlos Gonzalez – $5,000
3. Bryce Harper – $4,800
4. Brett Gardner – $4,000
5. Mookie Betts – $4,500
6. Ben Revere – $3,600
7. Gerardo Parra – $4,300
8. Jason Heyward – $4,100
9. Alex Gordon – $3,600
10. Rickie Weeks Jr. – $2,200
11. Michael A. Taylor – $3,200
12. Curtis Granderso – $3,100

Starting Pitcher

1. Jose Fernandez – $11,300
2. Stephen Strasburg – $11,600
3. Jon Lester = $11,800
4. Mike Fiers – $7,300
5. Jose Berrios – $7,000
6. Tyler Chatwood – $6,600

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