Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by player rankings for Saturday’s nine-game evening slate of DraftKings contests starting at 7:00 P.M. ET. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of an old chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. Purple/blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the seventh one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players in action today. ‘Proj.’ is a projection from numberfire.com’s rest-of-season projections, which I have cut down to a per-game basis and adjusted for matchup. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players in action today. And then ‘Value’ is the projection z-score minus the player’s salary z-score.

All shot attempt numbers discussed are at even strength and score-adjusted unless otherwise noted.

And as always, make sure to check Twitter for any injury news, and check LeftWingLock for starting goalies and line combos.

Teams to Target

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Rangers on the road in Calgary

Calgary is in a virtual three-way tie for most shot attempts allowed per 60, they have the worst save percentage in the league, and, as a result, they’ve allowed the most goals per 60 by a decent margin. So the fact that the Rangers are playing for the second night in a row on the road is not enough to scare me off. This matchup is simply too good to ignore.

As has been discussed fairly frequently here, you typically want to pick skaters that are likely to avoid the Mark Giordano/T.J. Brodie pairing. However, that pairing has been playing with Calgary’s top line in recent home games, and that is Calgary’s weakest possession trio. Nonetheless, it’s probably best to pick on Calgary’s second line, centered by Markus Granlund, who will skate with Calgary’s lesser defensive pairs. And the Granlund line is no possession monster itself.

Giordano/Brodie will almost certainly see New York’s top line, so it might be best to avoid Derrick Brassard’s line. But the Granlund line will likely skate some against both New York’s second and third lines. My guess is Granlund will see more of New York’s third line, which makes Oscar Lindberg an interesting play. Lindberg is the only third liner to see power play time, so if you want to mini-stack him, you could do so with Keith Yandle who joins Lindberg on the second unit.

If you’re looking for a more stackable line, New York’s second line should see some favorable matchups as well. Kevin Hayes, Chris Kreider and Rick Nash are all in play. Nash plays on the top PP unit, while Hayes and Kreider play on the second unit. If you go with Nash, I’d strongly consider also using Ryan McDonagh who joins him on the top PP unit.

Los Angeles on the road in Buffalo

With Evander Kane playing on the second line with Jack Eichel recently, Buffalo’s second line should be a better possession unit. Eichel and right-winger Brian Gionta do not have good possession numbers, but Kane does and gives that line a boost. That said, the top line centered by Ryan O’Reilly is still a better possession unit, so if you’re going Kings, the idea is to avoid O’Reilly’s line.

Buffalo typically uses O’Reilly against the opposition’s top line in home games, and there’s no reason not to expect that to be the case tonight. The problem is knowing which line Buffalo will treat as Los Angeles’ top line. For that reason, and because none of the Kings stand out as clear values in the research chart embedded below, I’m inclined not to go too heavy on LA tonight. Plus, the Kings played last night, and they split their lines up on the power play, which makes them less attractive for stacking purposes.

I know this is the “teams to target” section, and I’ve essentially decided not to target the Kings. But I just identify the teams with good matchups and write up my research as I go. Sometimes I’ll go through it all and only then realize the team is not one to target. And so it is today with the Kings. Were I to play one King, it would likely be Jake Muzzin.

Carolina on the road at Arizona

I actually considered both of these teams as options tonight, but this is a tough game to parse. Arizona has been forced to mix their lines a bit because of an injury to Martin Hanzal, which at first glance would make the individual Yotes to pick on easy to spot. The second line now centered by Viktor Tikhonov is clearly the top six line to pick on, but when these two teams played a week ago in Carolina, the Yotes sheltered that second line a bit by playing them primarily with their top defensive pair, which is a pairing you’d like to avoid.

That said, the top D pair played with the top line in their most recent game against St. Louis, so your best bet with Carolina would be to try and pick on Arizona’s second line and hope they don’t end up skating with Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Michael Stone. Arizona typically uses their top line against the opposition’s top line at home, so Carolina’s second line might have a decent matchup. The problem is that if there is any value with the Canes it’s on their top line. So after all that, the Canes are another team I can’t quite get on board with despite the good matchup on a team level.

As for Arizona, you would want to use Yotes facing Carolina’s second line, which is their weakest possession trio aside from their fourth line. But with Hanzal out, Antoine Vermette playing up on the top line, and Tikhonov playing center on the second line, they’re not a great option.

And if you need another reason to be wary of these two teams, they both played last night. So despite the fact that they rank second and third in goals allowed per game, I’m just not sure I want to put my money on the line with these guys. If you really want to get exposure to this one, I’d lean on Mikkel Boedker and Ekman-Larsson from Arizona and Eric Staal and Kris Versteeg from Carolina.

Islanders on the road in Columbus

The Blue Jackets have allowed the sixth most goals per 60 this season, and they’re down to backup goalie Curtis McElhinney at the moment, so there’s not doubt this is a good matchup for the Islanders as a team. The tougher question is which Islanders have the best individual matchup.

The Blue Jackets have not used consistent line pairing in recent games, and in recent home games they have not matched up certain lines with specific lines from the opposition. But if there is one semi-consistent thing it’s that Nick Foligno and Scott Hartnell tend to stay together on a line, and that’s the line you’d most like to avoid. That pair has seen plenty of each of the opposition’s line in recent home games, but they probably play the most against the opposition’s second line. For that reason, I’d lean toward the John Tavares line for the Isles tonight.

Tavares is expensive, but not so much so that you can’t work him into some lineups. If you need some salary relief as a result of rostering Tavares, you could pair him with left-winger Brock Nelson or defenseman Nick Leddy, who joins him on the power play. The entire top line, also including Kyle Okposo, stays together on the power play, so that trio is a stack option in tournaments.

Nashville home to Colorado

Colorado has sucked slightly less lately than they did at the beginning of the season, but they’re still a well above average matchup for opposing skaters. The line to pick on is their second line centered by Carl Soderberg. Nashville has a tendency to use their top line against the opposition’s top line at home, so it should be their second line centered by Mike Ribeiro who draws the better individual matchup. Ribeiro and right-winger Craig Smith are your best bets from the Preds, with Smith being the best option on the team. That pairs plays on the second PP unit with defenseman Ryan Ellis, who can be stacked with one or both of those forwards.

St. Louis home to Dallas

Both of Dallas’ top two lines are good possession trios, so if you’re going to pick on Dallas, it’s best to try and do it either with depth lines or with teams who will use top six lines against Dallas’ depth lines when hosting the Stars. St. Louis will utilize their top line against Dallas’ top line to some extent, but they have also shown a willingness to let checking lines see some ice against the opposition’s top line in order to get Stastny/Tarasenko some matchups against depth lines. So while using St. Louis’ top line might be a bit risky on +/- sites given that they’ll see some of Benn/Seguin, they’re a pair to consider on DK where +/- isn’t a scoring category. However, that pair is a tad overpriced, so they are not guys I would make staples of cash game lineups.

San Jose home to Minnesota

With Devan Dubnyk out with an injury, the Wild are relying on some shaky, shaky goaltenders, which de facto makes San Jose a team worth considering. You want to avoid Sharks that will matchup up with Minnesota’s excellent possession second line, centered by Mikko Koivu, and their top defensive pair. That top defensive pair will likely skate with Minnesota’s top line, which is a slightly above average possession trio, so the idea is to pick on Minnesota’s depth lines.

San Jose has not typically tried to get one of their top six lines away from the top six of the opposition at home, so you might have to look to San Jose depth lines tonight to get the best individual matchup. Joel Ward is playing on the third line at the moment and is still seeing some power play time with the top unit, so he may be your best bet from the Sharks tonight. He could potentially be paired with defenseman Brent Burns who plays on Ward’s side of the ice on the power play. Burns is always worth considering given that he leads all defensemen in shots on goal and has 31 more shots than the guy in second in that category.

Montreal home to Ottawa

Both of Ottawa’s top six lines have at least two solid possession players on them, and those lines will play a lot with Erik Karlsson and Marc Methot, which is an excellent possession pairing. But damage can certainly be done against Ottawa’s depth lines. Montreal tends to use their top six against the opposition’s top six when at home, so the third line for the Habs could see some good individual matchups. Tomas Fleischmann and David Desharnais play together on the third line as well as on the second power play unit, so they could be a sneaky, cheap mini-stack.

Player Rankings

Center

1. John Tavares – $7,800 – New York Islanders
2. David Desharnais – $4,000 – Montreal Canadiens
3. Brock Nelson – $4,200 – New York Islanders
4. Mike Ribeiro – $3,400 – Nashville Predators
5. Oscar Lindberg – $4,000 – New York Rangers
6. Eric Staal – $5,200 – Carolina Hurricanes

Winger

1. Rick Nash (RW) – $7,000 – New York Rangers
2. Craig Smith (RW) – $4,500 – Nashville Predators
3. Kevin Hayes (LW) – $4,000 – New York Rangers
4. Chris Kreider (LW) – $4,400 – New York Rangers
5. Kyle Okposo (RW) – $6,000 – New York Islanders
6. Vladimir Tarasenko (RW) – $7,700 – St. Louis Blues
7. Filip Forsberg (LW) – $5,700 – Nashville Predators
8. Kris Versteeg (LW) – $3,800 – Carolina Hurricanes
9. Joel Ward (RW) – $4,700 – San Jose Sharks

Defensemen

As a side note, I have zero problem using a defenseman in the UTIL slot today.

1. Ryan McDonagh – $4,800 – New York Rangers
2. Keith Yandle – $4,600 – New York Rangers
3. Brent Burns – $7,800 – San Jose Sharks
4. Ryan Ellis – $3,800 – Nashville Predators
5. Kevin Shattenkirk – $5,500 – St. Louis Blues
6. Jake Muzzin – $4,300 – Los Angeles Kings
7. Nick Leddy – $3,600 – New York Islanders

Goalies

1. Jhonas Enroth* – $7,300 – Los Angeles Kings
2. Jonathan Quick – $7,700 – Los Angeles Kings
3. Thomas Greiss* – $7,100 – New York Islanders
4. Jaroslav Halak – $7,400 – New York Islanders
5. Pekka Rinne – $7,600 – Nashville Predators (cash only)
6. Mike Smith – $6,300 – Arizona Coyotes (GPP only)

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are not expected to start tonight but haven’t been ruled out, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check LeftWingLock for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here.

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