Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by player rankings for Monday’s five-game slate of DraftKings contests. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of the chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. Purple/blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the sixth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players in action today. ‘Proj.’ is a projection from my own Marcel-like projections. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players in action today. And then ‘Value’ is the projection z-score minus the player’s salary z-score.

All shot attempt numbers discussed are at even strength and score-adjusted unless otherwise noted.

And as always, make sure to check Twitter for any injury news, and check LeftWingLock for starting goalies and line combos.

Teams to Target

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Detroit home to Buffalo

The key to picking on Buffalo is avoiding those skaters that will matchup with Buffalo’s top line centered by Ryan O’Reilly. That’s a good possession line, and lately they have been playing alongside Buffalo’s best possession defensive pair. Buffalo’s second line is a better possession unit now that Evander Kane and Matt Moulson are on the wings as opposed to Brian Gionta and Jamie McGinn. That said, they’re still a better matchup for opposing skaters than O’Reilly’s line. But if you can roster skaters that will matchup with Buffalo’s depth lines, that’s preferable to those facing the second line.

These two teams played in Detroit about two weeks ago and Detroit’s top line matched up with O’Reilly and their second line matched up with Eichel’s line. So of their top six lines, I’d prefer Pavel Datsyuk‘s line. He and Brad Richards stay together on the second power play unit and make for a nice mini-stack. But Detroit has one of the better third lines in the league, so it’s tough to pass on good players who should see plenty of ice against Buffalo’s depth lines. Gustav Nyquist in particular is a very nice value as he’ll also see time on the top power play unit. For a mini-stack he can be paired with fellow third line winger, Tomas Tatar, and you could use the whole third line, including Riley Sheahan, in tournaments.

Tampa Bay on the road in Columbus

I’ve discussed this before, but Columbus is kind of a mess from the standpoint of trying to find the best indivudal matchups. The Blue Jackets have mixed their lines up a fair bit throughout the year, and they have not consistently matched certain lines up with specific lines from the opposition. That said, the general idea is to pick on Brandon Saad and Boone Jenner if they happen to be on the same line and to avoid Scott Hartnell and Nick Foligno. Saad and Jenner have been on the top line recently, and the Jackets tend to match that Johansen line up with the opposition’s top line at home, so Tampa Bay’s top line is probably your best bet here.

That’s a good thing because Tampa’s top line is the only trustworthy line they have at the moment. With Tyler Johnson out, Nikita Kucherov and Ondrej Palat are playing on the top line with Steven Stamkos. All three could be used as a stack in a tournament, but Kucherov is the guy I like the most if you’re not stacking. Or he could be mini-stacked with either of his line mates in cash games.

Boston home to Edmonton

Edmonton as a matchup is similar to Buffalo. You need to avoid their top line, and their second line is not as good of a matchup for opposing skaters as they were earlier in the year. But, of their top six lines, the second line is the one to pick on. However, the real matchup to exploit is their depth lines if at all possible.

Boston tends to go L1 v. L1 and L2 v. L2 at home, so the second line centered by David Krejci is the preferred line from Boston’s top six. Matt Beleskey is the best value on that line, but he’s separated from his line mates on the power play as Krejci and Loui Eriksson play up on the top unit. Krejci isn’t much of a value, but he and Eriksson, who’s a moderate value, make for a nice mini-stack on a very good power play unit and with a decent individual matchup.

But also like Detroit, Boston has a usable third line, which might be the better play against some really rough Edmonton depth lines. Ryan Spooner centers that third line and plays on the top PP unit, so he’s a nice option. Neither of his line mates see power play time, so were you to stack him, I might do it with Torey Krug who joins him on the top PP unit. The other option would be to stack him with his left winger, Frank Vatrano, to really get some salary relief.

Los Angeles on the road in Ottawa

Ottawa is a good matchup for skaters because they play high-event hockey, attempting a lot of shots but also giving up a lot of shot attempts. Average goaltending keeps them from being a great matchup, but they have allowed the eighth most goals against per 60 this season. The hard part is figuring out which Senators to target. Avoiding their top six would be ideal, but LA doesn’t have good enough depth lines to go that route. Instead, you’d like to avoid Erik Karlsson if at all possible. But even that’s tough because while he traditionally see the most of the opposition’s top line, that was not the case in their last home game against the Islanders.

Because there’s no obvious difference in indivudal matchup and because there’s no obvious difference in value, I’m inclined to just go with the Jeff Carter/Tyler Toffoli pair if I end up using Kings. Unfortunately, they’re still split up on the power play. But that means both Jake Muzzin and Alec Martinez are stack options as Muzzin plays on the first unit with Carter and Martinez plays on the second unit with Toffoli.

Player Rankings

Center

1. Steven Stamkos – $7,100 – Tampa Bay Lightning
2. Pavel Datsyuk – $5,500 – Detroit Red Wings
3. Jeff Carter – $6,500 – Los Angeles Kings
4. Ryan Spooner – $4,100 – Boston Bruins
5. David Krejci – $6,000 – Boston Bruins

Winger

1. Nikita Kucherov – $5,500 – Tampa Bay Lightning
2. Gustav Nyquist – $5,100 – Detroit Red Wings
3. Ondrej Palat – $4,100 – Tampa Bay Lightning
4. Tomas Tatar – $5,300 – Detroit Red Wings
5. Loui Eriksson – $5,200 – Boston Bruins
6. Matt Beleskey – $4,000 – Boston Bruins
7. Frank Vatrano – $3,300 – Boston Bruins
8. Tyler Toffoli – $5,700 – Los Angeles Kings

Defensemen

1. Torey Krug – $6,100 – Boston Bruins
2. Mike Green – $4,500 – Detroit Red Wings
3. Jake Muzzin – $4,300 – Los Angeles Kings
4. Alec Martinez – $3,800 – Los Angeles Kings
5. Victor Hedman – $4,800 – Tampa Bay Lightning
6. Zach Trotman – $2,700 – Boston Bruins

Goalies

1. Petr Mrazek – $7,100 – Detroit Red Wings
2. Craig Anderson – $7,400 – Ottawa Senators (GPP only)
3. Jonas Gustavsson* – $6,700 – Boston Bruins
4. Tuukka Rask – $7,700 – Boston Bruins (cash only)

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are not expected to start tonight but haven’t been ruled out, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check LeftWingLock for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here.

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