Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by player rankings for Tuesday’s 11-game slate of DraftKings contests. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of and old chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. Purple/blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the sixth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players in action today. ‘Proj.’ is a projection from my own Marcel-like projections. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players in action today. And then ‘Value’ is the projection z-score minus the player’s salary z-score.

All shot attempt numbers discussed are at even strength and score-adjusted unless otherwise noted.

And as always, make sure to check Twitter for any injury news, and check LeftWingLock for starting goalies and line combos.

Teams to Target

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Dallas home to Columbus

This isn’t rocket science. Dallas is the league’s best offensive team and Columbus is tied for the fifth most goals allowed per 60. Columbus is also without their top goaltender, and the Blue Jackets played last night. The only real question here is which Stars you are going to roster, not whether or not you are going to roster Stars.

In cash games, it seems ludicrous not to have exposure to their top line. Of those big guns, I think Tyler Seguin is a slightly better value than Jamie Benn, but Benn is a hair cheaper. Pick on and plug them in. It’s hard to tell you which one is going to be more productive tonight. What I don’t think you can do is roster both. For mini-stack options, you can pair your stud of choice with John Klingberg if you have the cash or right-winger Valeri Nichushkin if you do not.

In tournaments I could see the case for fading their top line. Everyone will be all over the big guns like white on rice, so I might suggest going contrarin in tourneys, though I would not fade Stars altogether. I think my preferred “contarian” play would be to stack second liners Jason Spezza and Patrick Eaves. Both play on the top power play unit, which gives you some exposure to the big guns without having to pay for the,

Chicago home to Colorado

Once again, this isn’t rocket science. Colorado is tied for the seventh most goals allowed per 60, and Chicago’s Anisimov/Kane/Panarin line has been hotter than two mice copulating in a wool sock on a hot tin roof in August. Plus, Colorado’s one good possession line is their top line, and Chicago almost always uses Jonathan Toews‘ line against the opposition’s top line at home. Anisimov’s line should see plenty of ice against Colorado’s lesser players.

Artemi Panarin and Artem Anisimov are more affordable than Kane, but this matchup is so good that it’s OK to pay up for Kane today. Anisimov is the more affordable mini-stack option with Kane. As it was with Stars, I can see the case for fading Kane’s line in tournaments as they should be extremely popular today. But if you fade Kane and Co., I’m not sure there are other options to turn to like there are with Dallas.

Nashville home to Calgary

The lack of rocket science continues. Calgary allows the third most shot attempts per 60, while Nashville ranks third in most shot attempts per 60. This is quite the mismatch possession-wise. And the nice thing about Nashville is that they a) provide more salary relief than Chicago and Dallas do, and b) they should not be as highly owned.

All members of Nashville’s top six are “under-priced” in this good of a matchup, so deciding which line to roll with comes down more to individual matchups. Nashville has a tendency to use their top line against the opposition’s top line at home, so the second line centered by Mike Ribeiro should see less of Calgary’s good, top defensive pairing. Ribeiro, Craig Smith and Viktor Arvidsson all stay together on the second power play unit as well, so they’re an option for a tournament stack that might not be too highly owned. For a mini-stack I’d make sure to include Smith and then go with Ribeiro or Arvidsson as budget and positional need dictate. On the blue line, Ryan Ellise joins that trio on the second power play unit and could also be added to any second line stack.

To be clear though, if you prefer Nashville’s top line, I wouldn’t argue too hard with you. I’m picking a lane here because I have to, and I do think the individual matchup slants toward the second line. But Nashville’s top line sees the first crack at power play time, and Calgary’s top line isn’t a great possession unit, but they happen to get help on the blue line.

Miscellaneous

There are other teams/lines I like a bit, but none as much as the three teams above. But as I mentioned, fading the Stars and Blackhawks in tournaments could be an option. If you’re looking for contrarian options in addition to Dallas and Nashville’s second lines, I could get on board with New Jersey’s top line or New York’s second line. New Jersey’s top line is missing center Adam Henrique right now, which really hurts them. But they are playing the Sabres who are playing for the second night in a row. Mike Cammalleri in particular is a nice value from the Devils. As for the Rangers, they’re also playing a team playing for the second night in a row, Edmonton. New York’s second line centered by Kevin Hayes should get away from Edmonton’s top line, giving them a nice individual matchup. Hayes is joined by Chris Kreider, who plays with Hayes on the second PP unit, as well as Rick Nash.

Player Rankings

Center

1. Tyler Seguin – $8,700 – Dallas Stars
2. Jason Spezza – $5,800 – Dallas Stars
3. Mike Ribeiro – $3,300 – Nashville Predators
4. Artem Anisimov – $4,400 – Chicago Blackhawks
5. Calle Jarnkrok – $3,000 – Nashville Predators

Winger

1. Mike Cammalleri (LW) – $5,500 – New Jersey Devils
2. Artemi Panarin (LW) – $5,800 – Chicago Blackhawks
3. Patrick Kane (RW) – $8,800 – Chicago Blackhawks
4. Jamie Benn (LW) – $8,400 – Dallas Stars
5. Viktor Arvidsson (LW) – $2,800 – Nashville Predators
6. Craig Smith (RW) – $4,600 – Nashville Predators
7. Lee Stempniak (RW) – $4,000 – New Jersey Devils
8. James Neal (RW) – $6,200 – Nashville Predators
9. Filip Forsberg (LW) – $5,700 – Nashville Predators

Defensemen

1. John Klingberg – $5,900 – Dallas Stars
2. Ryan Ellis – $3,900 – Nashville Predators
3. Brent Seabrook – $5,700 – Chicago Blackhawks
4. Alex Goligoski – $4,300 – Dallas Stars
5. Shea Weber – $5,800 – Nashville Predators
6. Ryan McDonagh – $4,700 – New York Rangers

Goalies

1. Antti Niemi* – $7,000 – Dallas Stars
2. Michal Neuvirth* – $7,100 – Philadelphia Flyers
3. Steve Mason – $6,900 – Philadelphia Flyers
4. Cory Schneider – $7,500 – New Jersey Devils
5. Kari Lehtonen – $7,000 – Dallas Stars
6. Connor Hellebuyck – $6,500 – Winnipeg Jets (GPP only)

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are not expected to start tonight but haven’t been ruled out, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check LeftWingLock for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here.

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