Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by player rankings for Saturday’s eight-game evening slate of DraftKings contests. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of and old chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. Purple/blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the sixth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players in action today. ‘Proj.’ is a projection from my own Marcel-like projections. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players in action today. And then ‘Value’ is the projection z-score minus the player’s salary z-score.

All shot attempt numbers discussed are at even strength and score-adjusted unless otherwise noted.

And as always, make sure to check Twitter for any injury news, and check LeftWingLock for starting goalies and line combos.

Teams to Target

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Islanders on the road in Arizona

With Mike Smith out for awhile, the Coyotes are down to Anders Lindback and Louis Domingue in net. That’s bad news for a negative possession team. Oliver Ekman-Larsson is good enough to potentially hamper whichever line he sees the most of, but Islanders from several lines are in play in this matchup.

I think Ekman-Larsson is most likely to skate against the top line centered by John Tavares, so I’m leaning towards the second line centered by Frans Nielsen. Nielsen comes with a nice price tag, and he plays on the top power play unit with Tavares and his line mates. Nielsen could be played with both of his line mates, Josh Bailey and Anders Lee, as a stack in tournament. If you’re looking for a mini-stack, I prefer Lee, though neither he or Bailey plays on the power play with Nielsen. But Nick Leddy does and makes for another mini-stack option with Nielsen.

Philadelphia on the road in Columbus

Rostering Flyers has a tendency to not work out for me, but I can’t deny them in this matchup. Like Arizona, Columbus is also down their top goaltender, and their top goaltender is better than Arizona’s. In the five games since Sergei Bobrovsky was injured, Columbus has allowed 3.8 goals per game. For context, the worst team in the league is allowing 3.3 goals per game this season.

Your options for Flyers are to go with the mini-stack of Claude Giroux and Brayden Schenn on the top line or Jakub Voracek and Wayne Simmonds on the second line. According to my research chart below, Giroux/Schenn are better values, plus I trust Giroux far more than I do Voracek. But whichever pair you go with, all four play on the top power play unit with Shayne Gostisbehere, who is a good option to add to either mini-stack.

Los Angeles on the road in Toronto

Toronto does something very, very weird at home. Their third line is their worst possession line, and the D pair of Morgan Rielly and Matt Hunwick is their worst possession pair. For some strange reason, Toronto will skate those five together, and they’ll match them up with the opposition’s top line when at home. As you can see, they’re at home tonight, so LA’s top line could have a great matchup.

The problem is knowing which line Toronto will treat as LA’s top line. In LA’s last two road games, the line centered by Anze Kopitar was treated as the top line by the home team. But in the couple of games before that, Jeff Carter‘s line got top line attention. Because I can’t say for sure who draws the better matchup, I’m going to lean on the research chart again and go with the Carter line because they’re the better values. Tyler Toffoli, as always, will be with Carter, but it would appear Tanner Pearson is now back with that line, re-forming the wonderfully named 70’s line. On the blue line, I like Jake Muzzin who plays on the top PP unit with both Kopitar and Carter, so you have a stack mate no matter what line you go with.

Edmonton v. Colorado

Both of these teams are above average matchups for opposing skaters. Both teams also have a top line that is a good possession unit. In their most recent home game, Colorado got their top line up against some depth lines for a majority of the game. But in most of their prior home games, their top line went up against the opposition’s top line. I think the top lines may end up cancelling each other out in this one, so I’m leaning towards the second lines to maybe set off some fireworks.

For Colorado, that’s Carl Soderberg and Blake Comeau on the second line. Comeau doesn’t see power play time, but Soderberg plays on the second unit along with defenseman Nick Holden. That trio could be a cheap stack option that should be very lightly owned, making them a possible tournament stack. For the Oilers, I really just like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins a bit, but he could be paired with line mate, Jordan Eberle.

Player Rankings

Center

1. Frans Nielsen – $5,200 – New York Islanders
2. Jeff Carter – $6,400 – Los Angeles Kings
3. Claude Giroux – $6,600 – Philadelphia Flyers
4. Anze Kopitar – $5,200 – Los Angeles Kings
5. Brayden Schenn – $4,200 – Philadelphia Flyers
6. Carl Soderberg – $4,200 – Colorado Avalanche
7. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – $4,700 – Edmonton Oilers

Winger

1. Tyler Toffoli (RW) – $5,700 – Los Angeles Kings
2. Anders Lee (LW) – $4,400 – New York Islanders
3. Kyle Okposo – $5,900 – New York Islanders
4. Josh Bailey (RW) – $3,800 – New York Islanders
5. Tanner Pearson (LW) – $3,800 – Los Angeles Kings
6. Blake Comeau (RW) – $2,900 – Colorado Avalanche
7. Wayne Simmonds (RW) – $5,200 – Philadelphia Flyers
8. Jakub Voracek (LW) – $5,200 – Philadelphia Flyers
9. Taylor Hall (LW) – $7,200 – Edmonton Oilers

Defensemen

1. Jake Muzzin – $4,400 – Los Angeles Kings
2. Nick Leddy – $3,700 – New York Islanders
3. Nick Holden – $3,000 – Colorado Avalanche
4. Johnny Boychuk – $5,300 – New York Islanders
5. Alec Martinez – $4,000 – Los Angeles Kings
6. Shayne Gostisbehere – $4,300 – Philadelphia Flyers

Goalies

1. Jhonas Enroth* – $7,300 – Los Angeles Kings
2. Antti Niemi* – $6,900 – Dallas Stars
3. Jonathan Quick – $7,800 – Los Angeles Kings
4. Reto Berra* – $6,900 – Colorado Avalanche (cash only)
5. Keith Kinkaid – $6,700 – New Jersey Devils (GPP only)

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are not expected to start tonight but haven’t been ruled out, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check LeftWingLock for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here.

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