Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by player rankings for Thursday’s eight-game evening slate of DraftKings contests. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of an old chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. Purple/blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the seventh one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players in action today. ‘Proj.’ is a projection from numberfire.com’s rest-of-season projections, which I have cut down to a per-game basis and adjusted for matchup. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players in action today. And then ‘Value’ is the projection z-score minus the player’s salary z-score.

All shot attempt numbers discussed are at even strength and score-adjusted unless otherwise noted.

And as always, make sure to check Twitter for any injury news, and check LeftWingLock for starting goalies and line combos.

Editor’s Note: If you haven’t deposited at DraftKings yet, we’ll help you get started & give you access to our #FrontOffice for free if you use this link.

Teams to Target

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Rangers home to the Avalanche

This is well covered territory here, but the Avs are a great matchup. They allow a ton of shot attempts and don’t stop a lot of shots that make it on goal. There’s not necessarily a specific line you want to pick on with the Avs, but you do want to try and avoid skaters going against their top line. This game is in New York so the Rangers will largely control matchups with last change.

In their four most recent home games the Rangers have gotten their top line away from the opposition’s top line twice (including their most recent game) and have matched up L1 with L1 in the other two games. That makes it a bit tough to say who avoids COL1, but my gut says it’s New York’s top line.

My favorite Twitter follower, @JoeCarterFan, who I’ll refer to here as Keller, has done some killer research into what lines score the most against teams both at home and on the road. According to that research, top lines score at a higher clip against the Avs when they’re on the road. When Colorado is at home, it’s second lines that do the most damage against them, presumably because the Avs can make sure their top line matches up with their opponent’s top line.

Long story short, Derick Brassard, Rick Nash and Mats Zuccarello are the Ranger plays tonight. In this matchup all three are priced reasonably enough, but Zucc is probably the worst value of the three. I’d lean Nash/Brassard in cash, and the whole line is an option in tournaments. The trio stays together on the blue line where they’re joined by Ryan McDonagh who strikes me as a particularly good value tonight.

Red Wings home to the Coyotes

Arizona scared me a bit earlier in the week with a shake up in their lines, but in their game in Nashville on Tuesday they used their best possession line (L1 centered by Hanzal) with their top defensive pair, giving us a clear group of five to avoid tonight. In each of their last three home games, Detroit has matched their top line up with the opposition’s top line, so the Zetterberg line is probably to be avoided tonight.

The problem here is that Detroit has three usable lines, so both the Datsyuk line and their third line should avoid the bad individual matchup. Pavel Dastyuk/Brad Richards and Gustav Nyquist/Tomas Tatar are your options. Both pairs look very similar to me in terms of value, and both pairs split up on the power play, so it’s hard to say definitively which pair is preferable. According to Keller’s research, third lines do the most damage against the Yotes on the road, so I’m leaning toward Nyquist/Tatar, just as I did earlier in the week. Mike Green and Nicklas Kronwall are the Wings D men who play on the power play, Kronwall with Nyquist and Green with Tatar. Of the two, Green is preferable, but if you prefer to roster Nyquist, Kronwall would make more sense as a stack partner.

Blackhawks on the road in Ottawa

Colorado and Calgary allow more shot attempts per 60 than any other team, but Ottawa is getting close to allowing as many shot attempts per 60 as those two teams. Ottawa has better goaltending, which keeps them from being an elite matchup, but they’re still a good matchup for skaters as long as they’re giving up that many shot attempts per game.

The Senators you want to pick on come from their second line, specifically Mika Zibanejad and Curtis Lazar. I’d advise you to try and stay away from their top defensive pair, but they see so much ice time with so many different forward lines that that’s a hard thing to do. So just pick on the second line.

Ottawa has a mixed history of who the Zibanejad line will match up against. In their most recent home game, Zibanejad matched up with the opposition’s second line, but in their home stand prior, it was a very mixed bag. Then there’s the issue of which line Ottawa will treat as Chicago’s top line. By production it should be considered the Kane line. But Jonathan Toews has long been centering their “top” line.

No Blackhawks really stand out from a value perspective, so if you want to go Hawks, I think you have to stick with the Kane line. Kane’s working on that 20-game point streak, and it’s hard to imagine it ending in this matchup. But because of the streak he should be a popular play, making him someone to consider fading in tournaments.

Wild home to the Maple Leafs

The Leafs have a clear line and a clear defensive pair to pick on. Their third line, centered by Nick Spaling, and their second D pair of Morgan Rielly and Matt Hunwick are their worst defensive units in terms of possession and scoring chances allowed. What’s insane is that the Leafs were skating that line primarily with that D pair for the longest time. But in their last game, they wised up a bit and skated Hunwick/Rielly primarily with their top line. With that quintet possibly broken up, the best idea is simply to try and avoid Toronto’s top line.

The Wild have a pretty clear history of getting their top line away from the opposition’s top line at home. Moreover, Keller’s research shows that Toronto gets hit the hardest by top lines whenever the Leafs are on the road. So all signs are pointing to Minny’s top line of Mikael Granlund, Zach Parise and Jason Pominville. Parise may be a tad expensive, but not so much so that he’s priced out of consideration. And I don’t love the value on Granlund, but it’s not bad and he’s still cheap. But Pominville looks like a very nice value. If you’re going Wild, include Pominville. Pominville plays on the second PP unit with Jared Spurgeon who is an option if you go that route. Parise and Granlund play on the top unit with Ryan Suter who is a bit expensive for my liking.

Predators home to the Panthers

On a team level, the Panthers don’t stand out as a great matchup. They’re mid-pack in shot attempts allowed per 60, and Roberto Luongo is at least an average goaltender. But on an individual level, there’s one really good spot to pick on, and that’s D men Erik Gudbranson and Willie Mithcell, who have the lowest relative Corsi ratings of any defensemen in action tonight. Those two have skated together at times this season, but Florida has been smart about keeping them separated for the most part in recent games. Neither one skates with Aaron Ekblad much, who you would really like to avoid, so the key here is really just avoiding Ekblad.

Nashville has gotten Mike Ribeiro‘s line away from the opposition’s top line in each of their last two home games. That was the case Tuesday when Nashville hosted Arizona, who, remember, has a top line to avoid, and Forsberg/Ribs netted three goals between them. Neither is a great value, but they’re not over-priced. They split on the power play, unfortunately. If you want to use a Nash defenseman, I would lean towards Roman Josi who joins Forsberg on the top PP unit.

Canucks home to the Stars

The top lines of both teams are both bad matchups for opposing skaters, but my guess is that they don’t match up exclusively tonight. Vancouver has gotten the Sedins away from the opposition’s top line at home recently, and they did the same late last season when the Stars were in town. The Sedins are priced reasonably enough that they may be an option against a Dallas team that has been known to give up a goal or two. On the other side, I think the Stars top liners are a bit too expensive for use today in a below average matchup. Vancouver’s third defensive pair can be exploited, but Dallas’ top line is not likely to see much of them with the game being in Vancouver.

Player Rankings

Center

1. Derick Brassard – $5,400 – New York Rangers
2. Pavel Datsyuk – $5,600 – Detroit Red Wings
3. Henrik Sedin – $4,900 – Vancouver Canucks
4. Mikael Granlund – $4,200 – Minnesota Wild
5. Brad Richards – $4,100 – Detroit Red Wings

Winger

1. Rick Nash (LW) – $7,200 – New York Rangers
2. Tomas Tatar (LW) – $5,100 – Detroit Red Wings
3. Jason Pominville (RW) – $5,000 – Minnesota Wild
4. Gustav Nyquist (RW) – $5,100 – Detroit Red Wings
5. Daniel Sedin (LW) – $6,800 – Vancouver Canucks
6. Zach Parise (LW) – $7,600 – Minnesota Wild
7. Mats Zuccarello (RW) – $5,800 – New York Rangers
8. Filip Forsberg (LW) – $4,600 – Nashville Predators

Defensemen

1. Ryan McDonagh – $4,800 – New York Rangers
2. Mike Green – $4,400 – Detroit Red Wings
3. Alexander Edler – $5,000 – Vancouver Canucks
4. Jared Spurgeon – $4,400 – Minnesota Wild
5. Niklas Kronwall – $4,000 – Detroit Red Wings
6. Dan Boyle – $3,100 – New York Rangers

Goalies

1. Devan Dubnyk – $7,500 – Minnesota Wild (safer cash play but also a GPP option)
2. Antti Raanta*- $7,300 – New York Rangers (cheaper cash play but not much cheaper so maybe not of much use)

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are not expected to start tonight but haven’t been ruled out, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check LeftWingLock for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here.

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