Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by player rankings for Thursday’s 11-game evening slate of NHL contests around the industry. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of an old chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. Purple/blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the sixth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players in action today. ‘Proj.’ is a projection from my own Marcel-like projections. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players in action today. And then ‘Value’ is the projection z-score minus the player’s salary z-score.

All shot attempt numbers discussed are at even strength, score-adjusted and weighted for recent performance unless otherwise noted.

And as always, make sure to check Twitter for any injury news, and check LeftWingLock for starting goalies and line combos.

Teams to Target

Dallas on the road in Arizona

Arizona consistently uses their third line against the opposition’s top line in home games. Arizona’s third line is a fairly weak possession line, but Arizona covers them up to some degree by playing them with their solid top defensive pair. Of Arizona’s top six lines, their top line is a tougher matchup, but it’s unclear if they’ll draw Dallas’ second or third line. They’ve seen opposing third lines in most home games, but they saw the opposing second line in their most recent home game. Plus, there’s the issue of whether Arizona treats the Cody Eakin line or the Mattias Janmark line as Dallas’ second. Given the uncertainty regarding which of those lines will have to face Arizona’s top line, it’s better to just focus on Dallas’ top line tonight.

Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin are both accessible enough in this matchup in terms of price, though Seguin is clearly the better value on FanDuel. In fact, Seguin, Patrick Eaves and John Klingberg are all really nice values on FD and make for good stack candidates there. That line and the Klingberg-Alex Goligoski D pair skate together at even strength and on the power play. Goligoski is probably the better blue line option value-wise on DraftKings and Fantasy Draft.

Carolina on the road in Ottawa

Ottawa is a damn mess right now. They’ve been giving up a ton of shot attempts all season, but they’ve dealt with some injuries and can’t seem to figure out consistent lines lately. That can make picking the best individual matchup against them tough, but Carolina has a strong third line that is a fairly safe bet to avoid Ottawa’s best possession players. Two of those third liners, Elias Lindholm and Victor Rask play together on the power play unit, and they’re joined there by a defenseman who plays with them at even strength, Noah Hanifin. Jeff Skinner is the third member of that line, but he plays on the other power play unit. All three of those forwards are good values just about anywhere, while Hanifin is priced for use on FD.

Tampa Bay home to Winnipeg

Winnipeg has a solid top six, but their depth lines can be exploited. And when the Bolts play in Tampa, they almost always get Steven Stamkos out against the opposition’s third line for most shifts. With an injury to Vladislav Namestnikov, Stamkos played with Alex Killorn and Ryan Callahan on Monday night. Killorn and Callahan did not play on the top power play unit with Stamkos, but they did play with the second unit. The line skated a fair bit with Victor Hedman at even strength, and Hedman joins Stamkos on the top power play unit. Make sure to see what lines Tampa runs at morning skate and what Namestnikov’s status is for tonight’s game. But Stamkos and whoever he’s playing with at even strength are in play tonight.

Other Lines to Target

Nashville’s third line against Boston – Boston’s top six is solid, but their depth lines can be picked on. Mike Fisher is centering Nashville’s third line and playing on the second power play unit, so he’s in a nice spot tonight. He plays with defenseman Ryan Ellis both at even strength and on the power play, so that’s a nice mini-stack option. Another option to pair with Fisher would be winger Colin Wilson, though Wilson does not see power play time. Fisher is a great value on all sites, while Ellis and Wilson are good values everywhere other than FD.

Washington’s second line against the Islanders – New York’s best possession defensive pair and best possession line generally team up in home games to take on the opposition’s top line. For that reason, Evgeny Kuznetsov’s line should have a better matchup than Alexander Ovechkin and the top line. Kuznetsov and Justin Williams are priced best on FanDuel, so they make for a nice mini-stack there. The other winger on that line, Andre Burakovsky should be stacked with them in GPPs as he’s too over-priced for cash game consideration. That line tends to skate with Matt Niskanen at even strength, though sometimes they get paired with John Carlson. But on the power play they’ll be joined by Niskanen.

Ryan Getzalf’s line against Vancouver – Is Getzalf’s line considered the top line? Probably, but with Anaheim’s lines kind of diversified at the moment, it’s possible Vancouver doesn’t treat Getzalf’s line as the top line. It would be nice if they didn’t since they tend to match the Sedins up with the opposition’s top line, and that’s a matchup you’d prefer to avoid. But it should also be pointed out that when Anaheim was in Vancouver in early January, the Canucks used the Sedins against the Ryan Kelser line. So perhaps Getzlaf and David Perron, who stay together on the top power play unit, will avoid the Sedins after all. They’re joined at even strength and on the power play by Cam Fowler. And the value is best for all three of those guys on DK, which is the only spot to seriously consider them.

Player Rankings

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Here are positional rankings for tonight’s slate. The color of each player’s salary represents their value on that site. Once again, here’s the color code: Blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are not expected to start tonight but haven’t been ruled out, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check LeftWingLock for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here. Please keep in mind that the projections and values in the chart below are based on matchups on the team level, not on an individual level. So if you see a name in the discussion section above or the rankings above and they have a good value grade here, then they’re a solid play.