Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by player rankings for Thursday’s 10-game slate of NHL contests around the industry. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of an old chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. Purple/blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the sixth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players in action today. ‘Proj.’ is a projection from my own Marcel-like projections. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players in action today. And then ‘Value’ is the projection z-score minus the player’s salary z-score.

All shot attempt numbers discussed are at even strength, score-adjusted and weighted for recent performance unless otherwise noted.

And as always, make sure to check Twitter for any injury news, and check LeftWingLock for starting goalies and line combos.

Teams to Target

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Islanders on the road in Calgary

This is very well discussed territory at this point, but depth lines are money against Calgary. Calgary has a very stout top defensive pair who will see a ton of New York’s top line tonight. And Calgary’s second line is a solid possession unit that should see New York’s second line. But after that, Calgary is very weak, and New York has the depth to take advantage of that.

New York’s third line is centered by Brock Nelson with Anders Lee and Cal Clutterbuck likely on his wings. Lee also plays on the top power play unit, so he’s a particularly good option tonight. Nelson plays on the second power play unit, so he’s still a mini-stack option with Lee. Clutterbuck should only be used if you want to be really contrarian and stack the whole line in a GPP. On that top power play Lee is joined by defenseman Nick Leddy, who also skates with the third line a fair amount at even strength, so he’s another option to be paired with Lee.

Of their top six, the second line against Calgary’s second has a less intimidating matchup than the top line against Calgary’s top D pair. Frans Nielsen and Kyle Okposo play on that line and play on the top power play unit together, so they’re another option for a mini-stack. A power play stack of Nielsen, Okposo, Lee and Leddy could be an option for tournaments.

Dallas home to Winnipeg

The only Winnipeg line you really need to avoid is their top line. Dallas uses the Cody Eakin line a fair bit against opposing top lines in home games, so Eakin, Antoine Roussel and Patrick Sharp aren’t great options tonight. Dallas’s top line will also see some of WPG1, but they’ll also get some shifts in better matchups. Plus, Dallas’ top line is too good to ignore. Of those top liners, Tyler Seguin and Jason Spezza are more than accessibly priced on FD. Jamie Benn is overpriced on both sites, but less so on DK. John Klingberg joins that line at even strength and on the power play, and like Seguin and Spezza he’s a better value on FD.

The Dallas line that is likely to avoid Winnipeg’s top line altogether is Mattias Janmark‘s line with Ales Hemsky and Valeri Nichushkin on his wings. That trio is also operating as Dallas’ second power play unit, which adds to their appeal. Over the last six games, those three have combined for seven goals, so they’re going well, getting power play work and should have a nice individual matchup. This is also another option for a contrarian stack. Janmark makes the most sense as a cash game play, and Nichushkin could be used on his own as a salary relief option on FD.

Los Angeles home to Edmonton

Edmonton’s top six is a solid group now that Connor McDavid is back, but their depth lines are very thin and exceedingly exploitable. The LA line most likely to see some ice against those depth lines is their top line centered by Anze Kopitar. On Tuesday LA played their first home game in almost three weeks, and it was Kopitar’s line who saw some action against opposing depth lines while Jeff Carter‘s line saw the most of the opposition’s top line.

Kopitar’s line skated with the blue line pair of Drew Doughty and Jake Muzzin at even strength, who also join Kopitar on the top power play unit. Muzzin is the more affordable of the two. Kopitar’s wingers, Milan Lucic and Dustin Brown, play on the second power play unit. For a mini-stack, Kopitar and Muzzin probably make the most sense with Kopitar/Muzzin/Brown/Lucic being a stack option for tournaments.

Carolina on the road in Toronto

Toronto is in the process of a veritable firesale, so they’re certainly a team to pick on. That said, they do have pockets of good possession players on their team. The defensive pair of Jake Gardiner and Frank Corrado is solid, and the prospective third line pair of Marc Arcobello and Brad Boyes aren’t bad. The D pair likely sees Carolina’s second line and Arcobello/Boyes likely see Carolina’s third line, so Carolina’s top line is the play tonight.

The top line has been reconfigured a bit lately with Victor Rask and Elias Lindholm taking the spots of Kris Versteeg and Phillip di Giuseppe at practice on Wednesday. Eric Staal remained on the top line, though he moved from center to the wing with Rask skating at center. Make sure to check what line rushes are at morning skate to see if the Canes stick with Wednesday’s practice configuration.

That top line likely skates with defensemen Noah Hanifin and Justin Faulk. Faulk is a bit of a risky play as he played limited minutes on Tuesday in his return from injury. But he should play on the top power play unit with Staal, which is a mini-stack option. As for Rask and Lindholm, they’ll skate on the second power play unit with Hanifin. Rask and Lindholm are the best values, particularly on FD, where Hanifin is also priced better, so that could make for a nice stack there along with Staal who certainly isn’t over-priced on FD.

Player Rankings

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Here are positional rankings for tonight’s slate. The color of each player’s salary represents their value on that site. Once again, here’s the color code: Blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are not expected to start tonight but haven’t been ruled out, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check LeftWingLock for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here. Please keep in mind that the projections and values in the chart below are based on matchups on the team level, not on an individual level. So if you see a name in the discussion section above or the rankings above and they have a good value grade here, then they’re a solid play.

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