Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by player rankings for Friday’s four-game slate of NHL contests around the industry. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of an old chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. Purple/blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the sixth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players in action today. ‘Proj.’ is a projection from my own Marcel-like projections. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players in action today. And then ‘Value’ is the projection z-score minus the player’s salary z-score.

All shot attempt numbers discussed are at even strength, score-adjusted and weighted for recent performance unless otherwise noted.

And as always, make sure to check Twitter for any injury news, and check LeftWingLock for starting goalies and line combos.

Teams to Target

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Anaheim home to Arizona

The Ducks played last night, but the Coyotes did as well, so the back-to-back for Anaheim is less of a concern. And the fact that Arizona is playing for the second night in a row is a big deal because it means Anders Lindback could get the nod in net. Louis Domingue has been a nice surprise for Arizona this year, but he’s been roughed up recently in some tough matchups. Plus, in a back-to-back right before the All-Star break, he got torched in the second game.

When picking skaters against Arizona, you want to avoid Martin Hanzal‘s line, and you’d like to avoid their top D pair featuring Oliver Ekman-Larsson. OEL plays a ton of minutes, so he’s impossible to avoid altogether. But last night he was skating primarily with Arizona’s second line (the Vermette line). For a good chunk of the season he’s skated most often with the third line, and Arizona could certainly revert back to that tonight. But if he sticks with Veremette’s line, the third line is suddenly very easy to pick on.

Anaheim uses Ryan Kesler‘s line against the opposition’s top unit in home games, so they’ll draw Hanzal and should be avoided. Rickard Rakell‘s line (featuring the biggest douche in hockey, Corey Perry) typically draws the opposition’s second line, so they’ll likely draw the Vermette line. And then Ryan Getzlaf‘s line is likely to draw Arizona’s third. If OEL ends up skating with the third line, Rakell and Co. against Vermette could be in a nice spot, so they’re not to be completely ignored. But the guess is that it’s Getzlaf’s line with the best matchup.

Getzlaf is joined at even strength by David Perron and Chris Stewart and by Hampus Lindholm and John Manson on the blue line. Stewart can be ignored outside of stacking the whole line in GPPs. Getzlaf/Perron is likely the mini-stack to go with, despite the fact that they’re split up on the power play. Perron is also joined by Lindholm on the second power play unit, so if you use Perron, whether on his own or with Getzlaf, Lindholm is an option to be rostered as well.

Columbus on the road in Calgary/Calgary home to Columbus

Let’s discuss both of these teams. First, let’s look at how the lines likely match up. Calgary tends to match lines up evenly at home, so expect CGY1-CBJ1, CGY2-CBJ2 and so on at even strength. Calgary’s imposing top D pair tends to skate with the top line against the opposition’s line, though there’s a chance that half of that D pair, TJ Brodie, isn’t available tonight.

Calgary’s top line is a slightly better matchup for opposing skaters than their second, but neither one is a bad possession trio. And the top line has the benefit of playing with Giordano/Brodie, so that probably makes them a tougher matchup than the second line after all. If Calgary’s opponent has a solid third line, it’s a good idea to use them to pick on Calgary’s woeful depth lines. Columbus doesn’t really have depth, but perhaps Kerby Rychel from the third line could be a value play. He’s a very nice value on FanDuel.

Of the top six lines for Columbus, it’s probably best to go with the second line and avoid Giordano if possible. At the end of last night’s game in Vancouver, Columbus’ second line was Alexander Wennberg, Brandon Saad and Scott Hartnell. That line is an option for a tournament stack, though you have to be a bit wary of them on a +/- site like FanDuel. Wennberg and Hartnell play on the power play together, so they could make for a nice mini-stack. The line is joined by Ryan Murray at even strength, and Murray plays on the PP with Wennberg/Hartnell, so he’s the Columbus D-man to roster if you go that route.

On the flip side, Columbus’ top two lines are also barely distinguishable from a matchup perspective, though perhaps the top line centered by Brandon Dubinsky is a slightly better matchup than Wennberg’s line. But matchups aside, Calgary’s top line is by far their most productive unit, so they’re generally the play if you’re rostering Flames absent an obviously horrendous individual matchup. Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan and Jiri Hudler make up that top line and all play on the top power play unit where they’re joined by Giordano.

Winnipeg home to Carolina

Carolina is a solid possession team, especially in the top six. But their third line is a below average possession unit that can be picked on a bit. In Winnipeg’s most recent home games, Bryan Little‘s line has been seeing work against depth lines, so they should draw the favorable matchup against Carolina’s third line. Little along with Mathieu Perreault and Drew Stafford make up that line, and they’ve also been playing together on the power play. They’re skating a fair bit with Dustin Byfuglien at even strength and some on the power play, so he’s an option to be paired with any of those forwards.

Player Rankings

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Here are positional rankings for tonight’s slate. The color of each player’s salary represents their value on that site. Once again, here’s the color code: Blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are not expected to start tonight but haven’t been ruled out, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check LeftWingLock for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here.

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