Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by player rankings for Monday’s five-game slate of NHL contests around the industry. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of an old chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. Purple/blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the sixth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players in action today. ‘Proj.’ is a projection from my own Marcel-like projections. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players in action today. And then ‘Value’ is the projection z-score minus the player’s salary z-score.

All shot attempt numbers discussed are at even strength, score-adjusted and weighted for recent performance unless otherwise noted.

And as always, make sure to check Twitter for any injury news, and check LeftWingLock for starting goalies and line combos.

Game Breakdowns

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Edmonton at Florida

Florida is simply a bad matchup for skaters. They allow the eighth fewest number of shot attempts per game, and they have the second best team save percentage in the league. The Oilers on the other hand allow the fifth most shot attempts per game and rank 23rd in team save percentage. This is a mismatch, but it is somewhat mitigated by the fact that Florida is playing for the second day in a row.

The Edmonton line you’d like to avoid is their second line centered by Leon Draisaitl. Florida tends to match lines up evenly at home, so their second line should be avoided tonight. Florida has usable players on their third line, so that line and their top line are in play. The third line pair of Nick Bjugstad and Brandon Pirri are the better values on DK, while the top liners, Aleksander Barkov, Jaromir Jagr and Jonathan Huberdeau, are better values on FD. Jagr is the best value of the bunch and makes sense as a mini-stack on FD with Huberdeau.

Pittsburgh at St. Louis

While Pittsburgh’s top line might make sense as a play from an individual matchup perspective and St. Louis’ second line might as well, no one in this game is really priced appropriately on either site. Pass on players in this contest.

Colorado at Winnipeg

Colorado can be ignored, but the Jets provide plenty of options. You’d like to avoid Colorado’s solid top line, but that may be tough to do. Winnipeg will match their top line up with Colorado’s, and Winnipeg’s top line is their only line with three talented players on it at the moment. With Mark Scheifele and Drew Stafford injured right now, Winnipeg’s talent is largely consolidated on the top line and top power play unit. On both sites, Bryan Little and Blake Wheeler is probably the preferred mini-stack, but Andrew Ladd could be used with the whole line in GPPs.

On the second line, Mathieu Perreault is an excellent value. He’ll avoid Colorado’s top line, and he plays up on the top power play unit. He could be paired with his line mate Nikolaj Ehlers, or he could be paired with Dustin Byfuglien, the defenseman who joins him on the top power play unit.

Buffalo at Arizona

Once again, the road team can be ignored here, but the home team provides us with multiple options. As for which Arizona line is preferred, Martin Hanzal‘s line is the only one we can be sure will avoid Buffalo’s solid top line. Arizona uses a mix of its second and third lines against top lines at home, while Hanzal and his line mates see plenty of ice against depth lines. Hanzal is joined by Max Domi and Anthony Duclair both at even strength and on the power play. Domi/Hanzal is the mini-stack with Duclair an option to pair with them in tournaments. Antoine Vermette‘s line will also see some time away from Buffalo’s top line, but they have seen some work against top lines in recent games. Whether you go with Hanzal’s line or Vermette’s make sure you pair them with Oliver Ekman-Larsson who chews up a majority of ice time on the power play and should skate on the power play with all forwards mentioned. With Chad Johnson starting in net for Buffalo as opposed to Robin Lehner, Arizona isn’t quite as good of a play as initially thought. For that reason, it may be best to only use the Hanzal line who is assured some good individual matchups.

Ottawa at San Jose

Both of these teams have strong top lines, and given San Jose’s tendency to match lines up evenly, both top lines may cancel each other out of this one. But both teams have exploitable second and third lines, so that’s where the plays are here. Ottawa’s third line isn’t overly talented, and while San Jose’s third line isn’t bad with Logan Couture at center, he’s a bit overpriced. So the second lines are your targets today.

Ottawa’s second line of Mika Zibanejad, Milan Michalek and Bobby Ryan all stay together on the power play, where they are joined by Erik Karlsson. If you roster any Ottawa forwards, Karlsson is an option to pair with them. With Alex Stalock in net for the Sharks, the Sens become a very solid play tonight.

As for San Jose, Patrick Marleau and Joel Ward are the second line mini-stack option. Both guys are priced better on FD, which is especially true for Ward. Brent Burns is also pretty price-accessible on FD, so he could be paired with both of those forwards or just Marleau who joins Burns on the top power play unit.

Player Rankings

DraftKings

Center

1. Mathieu Perreault – $4,000 – Winnipeg Jets
2. Martin Hanzal – $4,200 – Arizona Coyotes
3. Mika Zibanejad – $4,400 – Ottawa Senators
4. Bryan Little – $5,700 – Winnipeg Jets
5. Nick Bjugstad – $4,300 – Florida Panthers
6. Brandon Pirri – $4,200 – Florida Panthers

Winger

1. Blake Wheeler – $6,800 – Winnipeg Jets
2. Bobby Ryan – $5,500 – Ottawa Senators
3. Andrew Ladd – $5,200 – Winnipeg Jets
4. Patrick Marleau – $5,800 – San Jose Sharks
5. Nikolaj Ehlers – $3,600 – Winnipeg Jets
6. Milan Michalek – $3,300 – Ottawa Senators
7. Joel Ward – $4,700 – San Jose Sharks

Defensemen

1. Erik Karlsson – $7,400 – Ottawa Senators
2. Dustin Byfuglien – $6,300 – Winnipeg Jets
3. Brent Burns – $8,300 – San Jose Sharks
4. Oliver Ekman-Larsson – $6,100 – Arizona Coyotes
5. Marc-Edouard Vlasic – $4,700 – San Jose Sharks
6. Michael Stone – $4,100 – Arizona Coyotes

Fanduel

Center

1. Mathieu Perreault – $4,900 – Winnipeg Jets
2. Martin Hanzal – $4,500 – Arizona Coyotes
3. Bryan Little – $6,100 – Winnipeg Jets
4. Patrick Marleau – $5,800 – San Jose Sharks
5. Aleksander Barkov – $5,600 – Florida Panthers
6. Antoine Vermette – $3,800 – Arizona Coyotes

Left Wing

1. Bobby Ryan – $5,400 – Ottawa Senators
2. Max Domi – $5,400 – Arizona Coyotes
3. Nikolaj Ehlers – $4,100 – Winnipeg Jets
4. Andrew Ladd – $6,300 – Winnipeg Jets
5. Jonathan Huberdeau – $6,100 – Florida Panthers

Right Wing

1. Blake Wheeler – $6,400 – Winnipeg Jets
2. Jaromir Jagr – $4,800 – Florida Panthers
3. Joel Ward – $3,600 – San Jose Sharks
4. Milan Michalek – $4,500 – Ottawa Senators
5. Anthony Duclair – $4,900 – Arizona Coyotes

Defensemen

1. Erik Karlsson – $6,400 – Ottawa Senators
2. Brent Burns – $7,000 – San Jose Sharks
3. Dustin Byfuglien – $6,500 – Winnipeg Jets
4. Oliver Ekman-Larsson – $5,500 – Arizona Coyotes
5. Michael Stone – $3,300 – Arizona Coyotes

Goalies

DraftKings

1. Louis Domingue – $6,600 -Arizona Coyotes
2. Al Montoya – $7,200 – Florida Panthers
3. Connor Hellebuyck – $7,200 – Winnipeg Jets

Fanduel

1. Louis Domingue – $6,700 -Arizona Coyotes
2. Connor Hellebuyck – $7,200 – Winnipeg Jets
3. Brian Elliott – $6,900 – St. Louis Blues
4. Al Montoya – $7,700 – Florida Panthers

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are not expected to start tonight but haven’t been ruled out, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check LeftWingLock for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here.

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