Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by player rankings for Thursday’s 10-game slate of NHL contests around the industry. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of an old chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. Purple/blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the sixth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players in action today. ‘Proj.’ is a projection from my own Marcel-like projections. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players in action today. And then ‘Value’ is the projection z-score minus the player’s salary z-score.

All shot attempt numbers discussed are at even strength, score-adjusted and weighted for recent performance unless otherwise noted.

And as always, make sure to check Twitter for any injury news, and check LeftWingLock for starting goalies and line combos.

Teams to Target

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Dallas home to Edmonton

Dallas returns home from a trip to the West Coast, and they remain in a funk that began prior to their West Coast swing. But they’re about to start a homestand against Edmonton, Colorado and Calgary. Not only should they get out of their funk against those three non-playoff teams (Colorado won’t hold on to the last spot), but they should be major DFS factors over the next few games as all three of those teams allow a ton of shot attempts per game and don’t have the best goaltending.

I’ll be in attendance at this one tonight and sitting on the Platinum level. Good hockey tickets are affordable in Texas on a weekday night when Edmonton is in town.

As for which Stars to roster, that’s largely dictated by value. Tyler Seguin, Jason Spezza and John Klingberg are all priced very, very well on FD and are great plays there. At morning skate, Spezza was not with Seguin and Jamie Benn like he was on Tuesday night in Los Angeles. Instead it’s Patrick sharp back with Benn and Seguin. Seguin and Sharp make the most sense as a mini-stack on FD. As for Klingberg, he has been replaced by Jason Demers on the top power play unit, but it also wouldn’t be a surprise if that changed back to normal.

On DK, Stars just aren’t values. There are other teams with good matchups and good players on those teams with good individual matchups, so forcing Stars into your lineup on DK is not a must. Seguin is still probably your best bet there, but Jamie Benn is at least somewhat affordable. Good luck rostering both. It’s also unnecessary unless you’ve got something going on for GPPs.

Calgary on the road in Columbus

Here’s one of those teams with a good matchup that I mentioned.

There are no Columbus lines to avoid. Their top line isn’t as good possession-wise as their second, but they usually skate with the newly acquired Seth Jones, who is a solid defenseman. Without a noticeable difference in individual matchups, go with Calgary’s top line, which is easily their most productive. Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan are overpriced on FD, but they are affordable enough on DK. They’re joined on the power play by Mark Giordano, who is a solid value on DK. The other benefit to playing Flames on DK is that +/- isn’t an issue like it is on FD.

The same is true for the Blue Jackets, who also present an option tonight. Jackets aren’t as good of a play as the Flames just mentioned, but Columbus’ second line is worth consideration. Cam Atkinson and Brandon Dubinsky are good values on DK, as is Scott Hartnell who should return to the lineup tonight and skate on that second line.

Boston home to Vancouver

This was discussed on Tuesday when Vancouver was in New York, but without Henrik Sedin, there are no Vancouver lines you really need to make sure you avoid. With Boston having three viable lines, that makes it incredibly tough to pick players in this solid matchup.

The Boston line with the best mix of value on both sites is their second line of David Krejci, Loui Eriksson and Matt Beleskey. Eriksson is the best value on the team on FD, and Beleskey is the best Bruin value on DK. That said, top line center Patrice Bergeron has plenty of value on FD. He could be paired there with Torey Krug, who is also a nice value and joins Bergeron on the top power play unit. If you need salary relief, Bergeron could also be paired with right winger Brett Connolly. As for the third line, Ryan Spooner is the only third liner seeing power play time, so perhaps it’s best to stack from Boston’s top two lines tonight.

To recap, Boston’s second line has the most value and is really the only value option on DK. But on FD, both the second line and top line are certainly in play.

New Jersey home to Ottawa

The Devils have an excellent matchup at home against an Ottawa team that allows a ton of shot attempts. Top liners Kyle Turris and Mike Hoffman did not skate this morning and are game-time decisions. They’re good possession players, and Ottawa’s top line is one to avoid if the play. But if they sit, Milan Michalek, Mika zibanejad and Bobby Ryan will make up Ottawa’s top line, and that’s an exploitable trio. New Jersey used their top line against the opposition’s top line in their last home game, so Mike Cammelleri, Adam Henrique and Lee Stempniak are options tonight. Henrique and Stempniak are good salary relief on both sites, while Cammelleri is only usable on DK.

Los Angeles home to Minnesota

The Kings are in a good spot against a Minnesota team that played last night and looks to be starting Darcy Keumper in net. You want to avoid Minnesota’s second line who skates with their excellent top defensive pair. LA tends to let their third line handle the opposition’s top line while their top six lines split time against the opposition’s second and third lines, so both top six lines should see some ice in good matchups against Minny’s third line. Jeff Carter and Tanner Pearson from the second line have some value on DK and are worth a look there, along with Alec Martinez who sees some power play time with those forwards. On FD, Tyler Toffoli continues to be underpriced, so he’s a consideration there. He could be mini-stacked with Jake Muzzin.

San Jose on the road in Arizona

There’s no doubt that San Jose’s top line is going to see a fair bit of Arizona’s stud defenseman, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, playing out in the desert. But their value on FD is too good to be ignored. Sure, they’ll see plenty of OEL, but they’ll see plenty of OEL playing with Arizona’s weak third line. So while the individual matchup isn’t ideal, it could be worse. And it’s not bad enough to write them off on FD.

Tomas Hertl, Joe Thornton and Brent Burns are all very nice values on FD, with Burns joining Thornton on the top power play unit. Center Joe Pavelski also plays on the top line and top power play unit, but he’s not quite the value his teammates are. He’s not nearly the value Seguin is, so Pavelski isn’t a must-play given that rostering Seguin and Pavelski together could be tough. But all four Sharks mentioned are options for a tournament stack.

Player Rankings

DraftKings

Center

1. Sean Monahan – $5,800 – Calgary Flames
2. Jeff Carter – $5,900 – Los Angeles Kings
3. Brandon Dubinsky – $4,300 – Columbus Blue Jackets
4. Adam Henrique – $4,900 – New Jersey Devils
5. Ryan Spooner – $4,600 – Boston Bruins
6. Mathieu Perreault – $4,100 – Winnipeg Jets

Winger

1. Johnny Gaudreau – $7,000 – Calgary Flames
2. Mike Cammelleri – $5,200 – New Jersey Devils
3. Cam Atkinson – $4,400 – Columbus Blue Jackets
4. Lee Stempniak – $4,400 – New Jersey Devils
5. Matt Beleskey – $4,200 – Boston Bruins
6. Loui Eriksson – $5,500 – Boston Bruins
7. Jamie Benn – $8,600 – Dallas Stars
8. Scott Hartnell – $5,600 – Columbus Blue Jackets
9. Nikolaj Ehlers – $3,700 – Winnipeg Jets
10. Tanner Pearson – $3,600 – Los Angeles Kings

Defensemen

1. Mark Giordano – $6,500 – Calgary Flames
2. Kris Letang – $6,100 – Pittsburgh Penguins
3. Ryan Murray – $3,500 – Columbus Blue Jackets
4. Torey Krug – $5,900 – Boston Bruins
5. Dustin Byfuglien – $6,300 – Winnipeg Jets
6. Alec Martinez – $4,400 – Los Angeles Kings

Fanduel

Center

1. Tyler Seguin – $8,000 – Dallas Stars
2. Joe Thornton – $5,400 – San Jose Sharks
3. Patrice Bergeron – $7,100 – Boston Bruins
4. Adam Henrique – $4,900 – New Jersey Devils
5. Ryan Spooner – $5,300 – Boston Bruins
6. Mathieu Perreault – $5,100 – Winnipeg Jets

Left Wing

1. Matt Beleskey – $5,300 – Boston Bruins
2. Tomas Hertl – $4,200 – San Jose Sharks
3. Kris Versteeg – $3,900 – Carolina Hurricanes
4. Scott Hartnell– $6,200 – Columbus Blue Jackets
5. Jamie Benn– $9,500 – Dallas Stars
6. Frank Vatrano – $3,100 – Boston Bruins

Right Wing

1. Loui Eriksson – $4,700 – Boston Bruins
2. Tyler Toffoli – $6,100 – Los Angeles Kings
3. Patrick Sharp – $7,100 – Dallas Stars
4. Jason Spezza – $5,600 – Dallas Stars
5. Lee Stempniak – $4,300 – New Jersey Devils
6. Cam Atkinson – $4,800 – Columbus Blue Jackets

Defensemen

1. John Klingberg – $5,300 – Dallas Stars
2. Brent Burns – $7,100 – San Jose Sharks
3. Torey Krug – $5,500 – Boston Bruins
4. Kris Letang – $6,200 – Pittsburgh Penguins
5. Dustin Byfuglien – $6,400 – Winnipeg Jets
6. Jake Muzzin – $4,900 – Los Angeles Kings

Goalies

DraftKings

1. Antti Niemi – $7,100 – Dallas Stars
2. Marc-Andre Fleury – $7,900 – Pittsburgh Penguins
3. James Reimer – $6,700 – Toronto Maple Leafs (GPP only)
4. Connor Hellebuyck – $7,200 – Winnipeg Jets

Fanduel

1. Antti Niemi – $7,600 – Dallas Stars
2. Connor Hellebuyck – $7,000 – Winnipeg Jets
3. James Reimer – $7,500 – Toronto Maple Leafs (GPP only)
4. Marc-Andre Fleury – $9,200 – Pittsburgh Penguins
5. Tuukka Rask – $8,500 – Boston Bruins

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are not expected to start tonight but haven’t been ruled out, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check LeftWingLock for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here.

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