This post covers the eight game slate of NHL contests on DraftKings starting at 6:00 P.M. EST.

Normally I start these posts off with an explanation of the player value sheet I create every day, and then I include the research chart in the post. But today I’m going to include a different chart. Below is the chart I create each day to determine which teams are most likely to post big goal totals.

As you can see we’ve got the 16 teams in action tonight listed along with some as yet confusing numbers. The ‘Off’ and “Opp Def’ numbers show how far above or below average a team’s offense is and how far above or below average their opponent’s defense is over the last 20 or so games. Add those two numbers together and you can tell who has the best combination of offensive talent and matchup. I calculate the numbers by looking at Corsi events for and against and mixing them with shooting percentage and save percentage (which I regress a bit towards league average). Teams underlined and bolded are playing at home today, which is important because home teams score more on average.

Let’s start with the Dallas at Winnipeg game since both teams grade out as one of the five best plays of the day. As you can see, Dallas’ offensive production has been off the charts, but Winnipeg is a below average matchup for opposing skaters. On the other hand, Winnipeg’s offense has been well above average, just not in the stratosphere of the Stars offense, and Dallas is an above average matchup for opposing skaters.

That makes Dallas and Winnipeg very similar options today, at least from that perspective. But when you factor in the game being in Winnipeg and the price difference between players from each team, Winnipeg becomes the team you want to play. If you were to stack a center and the best winger from each of the team’s top two lines, you would spend $26,800 on Stars (53.6% of your budget) and $19,600 on Jets (39.2% of your budget). Given how similarly my matchup chart rates both of these teams, it would be crazy not to go with the value of the Jets. I like centers Bryan Little ($5,000, C) and Mark Scheifele ($4,300) and their right-wingers, Blake Wheeler ($5,700, W) and Michael Frolik ($4,600, W). On the blue line I like Toby Enstrom ($2,900) who plays on the second power play unit with Little/Wheeler. Use all five if you want to stack Jets in a GPP, but Little/Wheeler/Enstrom is the mini-stack for cash games.

Winnipeg is probably not my favorite team to stack today. That’s because I really like the value of Tampa Bay’s second line of Tyler Johnson ($5,400, C) and Nikita Kucherov ($4,300). As you can see above, Tampa falls in the green territory of the five best matchup scores of the day, and they’re also playing at home. But I could easily argue that the ‘Opp Def’ score for Columbus should be higher and thus the Lightning should be higher on that list. Up until 10 days ago, the Blue Jackets had Sergei Bobrovsky and his career .918 save percentage in net. Now they have Curtis McElhinney and his career .903 save percentage in net. Given that first line winger Ryan Callahan ($4,800, W) grades out as a good value and his center Steven Stamkos ($7,100, C) is reasonably priced, I really like a Lightning stack in this matchup. Johnson/Kucherov is probably the stack for cash games, but I could see Stamkos/Callahan if you have some money to spend. On the blue line I like Jason Garrison ($3,900, D) who plays on the second power play unit with Johnson and Kucherov.

Choosing a third stack option is a little tough today because I can’t decide between Chicago and Calgary, the two other teams in the green zone in the chart above. As mentioned I’m already out on Dallas because of their prices.

For the Blackhawks, I like the value of the first line pair of Jonathan Toews ($5,300, C) and Marian Hossa ($5,600, W). I’m also OK with Brad Richards ($4,900, C) but don’t love the value of either of his wingers, Patrick Kane ($7,600, W) and Patrick Sharp ($6,800). Plus they’re on the road on the second night of a back-to-back, so it’s hard to trust them. But if you want to go heavy on a Chicago stack, pick between Sharp and Kane and roll those four forwards out. Duncan Keith ($4,700, D) is my preferred blue line option there.

Calgary at home against the best matchup of the day, Edmonton, is also an appealing but hesitation-inducing option. Sure, Edmonton is a great matchup, but Calgary is the only one of the five teams in the green zone with a below average offense. But if you want to pick on that matchup, I can’t blame you. From the Flames I like Mikael Backlund ($4,300, C) and David Jones ($3,000, W) as well as Josh Jooris ($3,000, C) and Mason Raymond ($3,400, W). On the blue line I like T.J. Brodie ($4,100, D).

Price-Adjusted Cash Game Rankings

Center/Winger Mini-Stacks

1. Tyler Johnson/Nikita Kucherov – Tampa Bay Lightning
2. Bryan Little/Blake Wheeler – Winnipeg Jets
3. Jonathan Toews/Marian Hossa – Chicago Blackhawks
4. Carl Soderberg/David Pastrnak – Boston Bruins
5. Steven Stamkos/Ryan Callahan – Tampa Bay Lightning
6. Derick Brassard/Mats Zuccarello – New York Rangers

Defense

1. Toby Enstrom – $2,900 – Winnipeg Jets
2. Brent Burns – $5,100 – San Jose Sharks
3. Duncan Keith – $4,700 – Chicago Blackhawks
4. Mark Streit – $4,700 – Philadelphia Flyers
5. David Schlemko – $2,500 – Dallas Stars

Goalie

1. Cam Talbot – $7,100 – New York Rangers (backup, no confirmed starting goalie for NYR as of this writing)
2. Jonas Hiller – $6,800 – Calgary Flames
3. Henrik Lundqvist – $9,000 – New York Rangers
4. Antti Niemi – $8,000 – San Jose Sharks