Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by player rankings for Monday’s five-game slate of DraftKings contests. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of and old chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. Purple/blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the sixth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players in action today. ‘Proj.’ is a projection from my own Marcel-like projections. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players in action today. And then ‘Value’ is the projection z-score minus the player’s salary z-score.

All shot attempt numbers discussed are at even strength, score-adjusted and weighted for recent performance unless otherwise noted.

And as always, make sure to check Twitter for any injury news, and check LeftWingLock for starting goalies and line combos.

Teams to Target

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Los Angeles on the road in Colorado

The good news for the Avs is that their goaltending has been better of late, and their team save percentage is now somewhere near mid-pack. The bad news is that they continue to allow a ton of shot attempts per 60 and “lead” the league in that statistic. The Kings are a high volume shooting team, leading the league in shot attempts per 60. This is a complete possession mismatch and a great matchup for the Kings.

The only problem is picking individual matchups. The last two games the Avs have had the former members of their top line all playing on different units. When those three were together, it was simple enough to just avoid the skaters facing that line. But as it stands, there is no obvious Colorado line to target or avoid.

For that reason, it’s probably best to gravitate to the line that Tyler Toffoli ends up on. He has been playing alongside Anze Kopitar while Jeff Carter has been out of the lineup, but Carter traveled with the team and could draw back in tonight. If he does and Toffoli is back on his wing, that’s the pair I prefer. If the entire 70’s line is reunited, Tanner Pearson could be an option to stack with them in tournaments. But if Toffoli stays up on the top unit, even if Carter returns, go with Kopitar/Toffoli. On the blue line, Alec Martinez continues to see a large chunk of work with the top power play unit, and he continues to be cheap.

St. Louis home to Ottawa

Ottawa allows the third most shot attempts per 60, and they played last night, so this is a nice spot for the Blues. Ottawa’s top line is by far it’s best possession line, and David Backes and the second line typically draw the matchup with the opposition’s top line at home. That means St. Louis’ top line should have plenty of opportunities to shoot the puck against Ottawa’s weak second and third lines. None of the top liners are great values, but Paul Stastny and Vladimir Tarasenko are at least not overpriced. The same could be said of Kevin Shattenkirk who joins that pair on the power play.

Carolina on the road in Edmonton

The key to picking skaters against Edmonton is to avoid those facing their top line centered by Leon Draisaitl, as that has been a solid possession line. In their last two homes games, Edmonton has used Draisaitl’s line against the opposition’s second and third line, so Carolina’s top line may draw some favorable individual matchups. Center Eric Staal is a very nice value, as are his wingers, Kris Versteeg and Elias Lindholm (though Lindholm is only eligible at C on DK). Lindholm joins Staal on the top power play unit, but Versteeg does not see power play work, making him best suited for tournament usage. Justin Faulk joins Staal/Lindholm on the power play and is an option to stack with them.

The guess is that Edmonton’s top line mainly sees work against Carolina’s second line, so third-liner Jeff Skinner is an option as well. He is also a nice value, as is defenseman Brett Pesce who joins Skinner on the second power play unit. That could be a mini-stack option if you need salary relief.

Player Rankings

Center

1. Eric Staal – $4,900 – Carolina Hurricanes
2. Jeff Carter – $6,100 – Los Angeles Kings
3. Anze Kopitar – $5,500 – Los Angeles Kings
4. Paul Stastny – $4,800 – St. Louis Blues
5. Elias Lindholm – $3,700 – Carolina Hurricanes

Winger

1. Tyler Toffoli – $5,800 – Los Angeles Kings
2. Radim Vrbata – $5,100 – Vancouver Canucks
3. Jeff Skinner – $4,600 – Carolina Hurricanes
4. Daniel Sedin – $6,500 – Vancouver Canucks
5. Vladimir Tarasenko – $7,800 – St. Louis Blues
6. Kris Versteeg – $3,900 – Carolina Hurricanes
7. Tanner Pearson – $3,800 – Los Angeles Kings

Defensemen

1. Justin Faulk – $6,300 – Carolina Hurricanes
2. Alec Martinez – $4,200 – Los Angeles Kings
3. Alexander Edler – $5,100 – Vancouver Canucks
4. Brett Pesce – $3,000 – Carolina Hurricanes
5. Kevin Shattenkirk – $6,400 – St. Louis Blues

Goalies

1. Brian Elliott – $7,500 – St. Louis Blues
2. Cory Schneider – $7,900 – New Jersey Devils
3. Anders Nilsson* – $6,300 – Edmonton Oilers (GPP only)
4. Cam Talbot – $6,600 – Edmonton Oilers (GPP only)

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are not expected to start tonight but haven’t been ruled out, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check LeftWingLock for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here.

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