Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by player rankings for Tuesday’s eight-game slate of DraftKings contests. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of and old chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. Purple/blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the sixth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players in action today. ‘Proj.’ is a projection from my own Marcel-like projections. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players in action today. And then ‘Value’ is the projection z-score minus the player’s salary z-score.

All shot attempt numbers discussed are at even strength, score-adjusted and weighted for recent performance unless otherwise noted.

And as always, make sure to check Twitter for any injury news, and check LeftWingLock for starting goalies and line combos.

Teams to Target

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Minnesota on the road in Columbus

Columbus is currently tied with Calgary and Arizona for most goals allowed per 60, and there’s no reason to think that’s going to turn around any time soon. The rank 25th in CF% and currently have Anton Forsberg and Joonas Korpisalo as the goalies on their roster. The only thing you have to worry about when picking skaters against Columbus is which skaters have to face the pair of Alexander Wennberg and Scott Hartnell, who have easily been Columbus’ best possession players this season. In home games, that pair tends to skate against the opposition’s second line, but they may seem some of Minnesota’s third line as well. That means Minnesota’s top line is in play today, and their third line is a consideration as well because they should see some ice against Columbus’ depth lines.

Zach Parise and Mikko Koivu from Minny’s top line today make for a strong mini-stack, and right-winger Thomas Vanek is a nice play as well. The whole line stays together on the top power play unit. Ryan Suter is the defenseman on the top power play unit and is an option to stack with top line members. Third-line Jason Pominville also plays on the top power play unit, so he is an alternative to Koivu/Parise if you can’t afford Parise’s salary. Suter could be stacked with Pominville as well.

Tampa Bay on the road in Calgary

Second and third lines against Calgary. That has been one of the most bankable plays all season long. Calgary’s top defensive pair of Mark Giordano and T.J. Brodie match up with the opposition’s top line, and the other pairs are very exploitable. Of their forward lines, their top line isn’t a great possession line, despite their ability to score, and they often match up with the opposition’s second line at home. That means Tampa’s Triplets line is fully in play tonight.

Nikita Kucherov is a great option as he plays up on the top power play unit. He could be stacked with line mates, Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat, in GPPs. For mini-stacks, Johnson sees power play time with the second unit while Palat hasn’t been seeing power play time recently. But Palat happens to be very cheap at $3,600, so either is a viable mini-stack partner with Kucherov. On the blue line, go with Anton Stralman if you go with Kucherov/Palat or just Kucherov as Stralman plays on the top power play unit. But if you use Johnson, go with Victor Hedman, who I like more than Stralman in a vacuum, as Hedman plays on the second power play unit with Johnson.

Philadelphia home to Montreal

With Ben Scrivens confirmed in net for Montreal tonight, the Flyers have the third best matchup of the night according to my own personal matchup statistic (which is a mix of Corsi Against and save percentage). As far as individual matchups go, Montreal’s top six is pretty good possession-wise, but their bottom six is definitely exploitable. Philadelphia tends to get Claude Giroux‘s line some ice time against depth lines in home games, and Giroux has Jakub Voracek and Wayne Simmonds on his wings lately. I’m really not big on rostering Flyers as a general rule, but their top line is stacked and in a pretty good spot tonight. The top line stays together on the top power play unit where they’re joined by defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere, who is a solid option tonight.

Florida on the road in Buffalo

Buffalo isn’t the elite matchup for opposing skaters that they were last year, but they’re still a safely above average matchup. As long as you avoid their top line centered by Ryan O’Reilly, which arguably consists of their three best possession players, they’re still a team to pick on. O’Reilly’s line always matches up with the opposition’s top line in home games, so Florida’s second and third lines are in play tonight. On the third line, Nick Bjugstad and Brandon Pirri make for a nice mini-stack. They split up on the power play, but they both see power play time. If you use Bjugstad, Aaron Ekblad is in play on the blue line as he joins Bjugstad on the top power play unit. The second line of Vincent Trocheck, Jussi Jokinen and Reilly Smith is also an option. Trocheck and Smith make the most sense as a mini-stack as they play together on the second power play unit.

Player Rankings

Center

1. Mikko Koivu – $5,100 – Minnesota Wild
2. Claude Giroux – $6,500 – Philadelphia Flyers
3. Tyler Johnson – $4,600 – Tampa Bay Lightning
4. Nick Bjugstad – $4,600 – Florida Panthers
5. Brandon Pirri – $4,200 – Florida Panthers
6. Vincent Trocheck – $4,000 – Florida Panthers

Winger

1. Zach Parise – $7,500 – Minnesota Wild
2. Nikita Kucherov – $6,100 – Tampa Bay Lightning
3. Jason Pominville – $4,800 – Minnesota Wild
4. Jakub Voracek – $5,900 – Philadelphia Flyers
5. Ondrej Palat – $3,600 – Tampa Bay Lightning
6. Thomas Vanek – $5,100 – Minnesota Wild
7. Wayne Simmonds – $5,300 – Philadelphia Flyers
8. Reilly Smith – $4,300 – Florida Panthers

Defensemen

1. Ryan Suter – $5,900 – Minnesota Wild
2. Victor Hedman – $5,200 – Tampa Bay Lightning
3. Shayne Gostisbehere – $4,600 – Philadelphia Flyers
4. P.K. Subban – $5,800 – Montreal Canadiens
5. Aaron Ekblad – $5,000 – Florida Panthers
6. Anton Stralman – $4,700 – Tampa Bay Lightning

Goalies

1. Devan Dubnyk – $7,700 – Minnesota Wild
2. Michal Neuvirth – $7,200 – Philadelphia Flyers
3. Pekka Rinne – $7,500 – Nashville Predators
4. Roberto Luongo – $8,200 – Florida Panthers

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are not expected to start tonight but haven’t been ruled out, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check LeftWingLock for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here.

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