Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by player rankings for Monday’s six-game slate of NHL contests around the industry. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of an old chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. They’re on a graded scale from green (good) to red (bad) with yellow as the midpoint.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the sixth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players in action today. ‘Proj.’ is a projection from my own Marcel-like projections. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players in action today. And then ‘Value’ is the projection z-score minus the player’s salary z-score.

All shot attempt numbers discussed are at even strength, score-adjusted and weighted for recent performance unless otherwise noted.

And as always, make sure to check Twitter for any injury news, and check LeftWingLock for starting goalies and line combos.

Teams to Target

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St. Louis on the road in Calgary

The chalk begins and ends with the Blues today. I’m sure some will find the Ducks to be a solid play tonight (more on them in a moment), but no team is a safer play than St. Louis. Most of the league’s best matchups for opposing skaters are not in action tonight, but Calgary is the one truly fantasy-friendly team playing. They rank ninth in unblocked shot attempts allowed per 60 and dead last in team save percentage.

As has been discussed here many times this year, you want to avoid skaters likely to face Calgary’s top defensive pair, though they’re less imposing at the moment with T.J. Brodie injured and Dougie Hamilton taking his spot next to Mark Giordano. And to a lesser extent, Calgary’s top six lines are good possession units. It’s Calgary’s depth lines that can really be exploited. Most of the season Calgary has matched lines up evenly in home games, but in their most recent home game, their top line and top D pair matched up with the opposing third line while Calgay’s third line matched up with the opposing top line.

If Calgary maintains that method of matching up lines, both of St. Louis’ top six lines could avoid the toughest individual matchup. There’s a good chance Calgary goes back to matching lines up evenly, so Jaden Schwartz, Jori Lehtera and Vladimir Tarasenko could end up with a tough matchup. But there’s also a chance they get Calgary’s third line, so they may be worth the risk. They all play together on the top power play unit and are joined there and at even strength by defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk.

The alternative is St. Louis’ second line of Robby Fabbri, Paul Stastny and Troy Brouwer. That line forms the second power play unit as well, and they’re joined both at even strength and on the power play by Colton Parayko. They have less upside in their individual matchup in that they likely see Calgary’s decent second line and weak second D pair no matter what. But they also don’t run much risk of running into Monahan/Gaudreau/Giordano/Hamilton.

Anaheim home to New Jersey

The Devils are in the midst of an impressive West Coast swing with wins over Los Angeles and San Jose with Keith Kincaid manning the net in Corey Schneider’s absence. But fear of the Devils strong road play isn’t the the thing that scares me off the Ducks as a play. Instead it’s the style of hockey that these teams play: low-event hockey. Anaheim and New Jersey rank first and fifth in terms of fewest unblocked shot attempts allowed per 60. These teams play with the purpose of preventing shots, which isn’t conducive to fantasy scoring.

That said, there’s no question that these teams are mismatched. Where Anaheim separates themselves from New Jersey is the fact that they are capable of generating shots whereas the Devils rank bottom five in that stat as well. And Keith Kincaid has a career .913 save percentage, so his good run will end at some point.

So if you do like the Ducks, Corey Perry is probably your best bet. He and the second line have been drawing the more favorable individual matchups in recent home games. Plus, he plays on the top power play unit, and he’s somewhat reasonably priced. There may not be much stacking or even mini-stacking to do, but Perry is a solid option. The other option might be to go for value with Ryan Garbutt potentially playing up on the top line with Ryan Getzlaf. Garbutt is minimum price on both DK and FD, so he’s a salary relief option.

Other Lines to Target

Mark Scheifele’s line against Vancouver – Scheifele’s line is Winnipeg’s only legitimate line at the moment. They’ll face Vancouver tonight who only has one legitimate line themselves in the form of the Sedin twins. The Sedins saw opposing depth lines in their most recent home game, so Winnipeg’s top line, a good possession trio, could dominate the puck against Vancouver’s weaker lines. The line is Scheifele, Drew Stafford, and Blake Wheeler with Dustin Byfuglien joining them at even strength and on the power play.

Ryan Johansen’s line against Edmonton – Edmonton’s top six is decent, but they struggle with depth. In their last home game, the Oil used a depth line, their third, against the opposing top line in order to get Taylor Hall and Connor McDavid out against the opposition’s weaker lines. They did the same thing last time Nashville was in town when their third line matched up with Johansen’s line. Johansen is joined by James Neal and Calle Jarnkrok, with Neal also joining him on the power play. Defenseman Ryan Ellis plays with the line both at even strength and on the power play.

John Tavares’ line against Florida – Florida’s second line is a really good possession trio, but Tavares’ line should avoid them as the Isles tend to match lines up evenly in home games. Tavares has been joined by Kyle Okposo on the top line recently, which is an upgrade in terms of his linemates. Tavares and Okposo also play on the top power play unit together. They’re joined by Josh Bailey who plays on the second power play unit. Nick Leddy plays with the line at even strength and on the top power play.

Player Rankings

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Here are positional rankings for tonight’s slate. Once again, the colors are on a graded scale from green (good) to red (bad) with yellow as the midpoint.

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are not expected to start tonight but haven’t been ruled out, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check LeftWingLock for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here. Please keep in mind that the projections and values in the chart below are based on matchups on the team level, not on an individual level. So if you see a name in the discussion section above or the rankings above and they have a good value grade here, then they’re a solid play.

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