Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by player rankings for Friday’s six-game slate of NHL contests around the industry. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of an old chart that I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. They’re on a graded scale from green (good) to red (bad) with yellow as the midpoint.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the sixth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players in action today. ‘Proj.’ is a projection from my own Marcel-like projections. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players in action today. And then ‘Value’ is the projection z-score minus the player’s salary z-score.

All shot attempt numbers discussed are at even strength, score-adjusted and weighted for recent performance unless otherwise noted.

And as always, make sure to check Twitter for any injury news, and check LeftWingLock for starting goalies and line combos.

Teams to Target

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Washington home to Nashville

Nashville is only an average matchup for opposing skaters, but they’re playing an above average offense that can go three lines deep. The Preds also played last night, so maybe they go from an average matchup to a slightly above average matchup.

Nashville’s second line centered by Mike Ribeiro has turned out to be a very good trio and one that controls the puck well. They’re a matchup you’d like to avoid. Washington generally matches lines up evenly at home, but the question is whether they consider Ribeiro’s line the first or second line. My guess is Ryan Johansen’s line is treated as the top line and matched up with Nicklas Backstrom’s top line, but I can’t be certain about that.

As a result, the safest play is Washington’s third line who will match up with Nashville’s third line. Nashville’s third is better than most teams third lines, but they’re not an overly imposing matchup possession-wise. Washington’s third liners, Marcus Johansson, Jason Chimera and Justin Williams, all see power play work, Johansson with the top unit and Chimera/Williams with the second. They’ll skate at even strength with defenseman Dmitry Orlov who also skates on the second power play unit.

The top line is in play as well, but there’s certainly a bit of risk attached. I’m not sure they’re top cash game plays today given their prices, though Backstrom is pretty affordable on FD, which is generally true for most Caps. They’ve been priced better on FD than DK all season. But someone like Johansson playing against Nashville’s depth lines while seeing top power play work and coming with a low price tag makes the most sense.

Colorado on the road in Calgary

I can’t help myself with picking bad teams traveling to Calgary. Winnipeg let me down on Wednesday night, and that wasn’t the first time that has happened this year. But it’s impossible to ignore the fact that Calgary allows the ninth most unblocked shot attempts per 60 and has below average goaltending.

Calgary’s top line and Mark Giordano are the individual guys you want to avoid, and they’ll likely face off with Colorado’s top line as they usually do at home. The question is whether Matt Duchene or Nathan MacKinnon’s line is the top line. In recent road games for the Avs, home teams have been giving Duchene’s line the line one treatment, and that seems like the most likely outcome tonight.

So MacKinnon is in play along with his line mates, Blake Comeau and Mikkel Boedker. Comeau plays on the top power play unit while MacKinnon and Boedker play on the second unit. They’re joined at even strength by defenseman Erik Johnson more than any other blue liner, and he also plays on the second unit. But they’ll also skate some with Tyson Barrie who plays on the top power play unit with Comeau.

Anaheim home to Boston

There have been games where Boston’s third line was a weak possession unit that could certainly be exploited. That’s still the line you’d prefer to pick on, but it’s not as weak at the moment with Jimmy Hayes banished to the fourth line and Brett Connolly taking his spot. Against some teams I’d let the iffy target of Boston’s third line go, but Anaheim has turned into a really good possession team that has the forward depth to take advantage of the matchup.

Anaheim ranks second in even strength, score-adjusted, Corsi for percentage of total, and they actually started the year off slow in that regard. They’ve been playing excellent possession hockey for the last two-thirds of the season. As for Boston, they’re below average on the whole as a possession team, so Anaheim could dominate the puck.

Anaheim’s third line will handle Patrice Bergeron’s line so ignore them. But Anaheim’s second and third lines are likely to split shifts against Boston’s second and third lines. Ryan Getzlaf’s line has seen opposing depth lines a fair bit this year at home, so his line is the best bet.

Getzlaf is joined by David Perron and new acquisition Brandon Pirri. Pirri comes nice and cheap on DK where Getzlaf and Perron are more appropriately priced, so consider Ducks on DK only. They’re joined at even strength by Hampus Lindholm who sees work with the second power play unit. But Getzlaf and Perron play on the top unit with Cam Fowler.

Other Lines to Target

Jack Eichel’s line against Ottawa – With Ryan O’Reilly back in the lineup, Eichel’s line is free to roam against opposing depth lines at home. Buffalo’s third line tends to take the opposing top line at home while O’Reilly’s line draws the opposing second line. Ottawa lacks forward depth, so Eichel, Sam Reinhart and Zemgus Girgensons should have a nice matchup. All three played on the power play together last game along with Rasmus Ristolainen.

Artem Anisimov’s line against Winnipeg – Winnipeg’s top line is a stout possession unit, but Toews and Kane will have them to deal with tonight. Anisimov, Artemi Panarin and Marian Hossa will see Winnipeg’s second and third lines. That trio played together as a power play unit last game with Michael Rozsival joining them on the blue line both at even strength and on the power play.

Leon Draisaitl’s line against Vancouver – The Sedins are all the Canucks have in terms of good possession players, and Connor McDavid’s line has been drawing the tougher matchups in recent home games. Draisaitl and Taylor Hall should face off against Vancouver’s amalgam of mediocre players at even strength. On the power play they’ll join McDavid and Andrej Sekera on the top unit. They skated with Sekera at even strength last game but Jordan Oesterle in the game prior. Oesterle skates with the second unit and is also an option as salary relief.

Player Rankings

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Here are positional rankings for tonight’s slate. Once again, the colors are on a graded scale from green (good) to red (bad) with yellow as the midpoint.

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are not expected to start tonight but haven’t been ruled out, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check LeftWingLock for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here. Please keep in mind that the projections and values in the chart below are based on matchups on the team level, not on an individual level. So if you see a name in the discussion section above or the rankings above and they have a good value grade here, then they’re a solid play.

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