Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by player rankings for Saturday’s eight-game evening slate of NHL contests around the industry. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of an old chart that I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. They’re on a graded scale from green (good) to red (bad) with yellow as the midpoint.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the sixth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players in action today. ‘Proj.’ is a projection from my own Marcel-like projections. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players in action today. And then ‘Value’ is the projection z-score minus the player’s salary z-score.

All shot attempt numbers discussed are at even strength, score-adjusted and weighted for recent performance unless otherwise noted.

And as always, make sure to check Twitter for any injury news, and check LeftWingLock for starting goalies and line combos.

Lines to Target

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Tyler Johnson’s line at Arizona – Arizona’s top six is decent, but their third line can be picked on. Arizona often covers up that third line by playing them with their top defensive pair, but with Oliver Ekman-Larsson injured, the third line can’t be sheltered. They saw the opposing second line in their last home game, so Johnson’s line should draw that comfy matchup tonight. Worst case scenario, Johnson’s line sees Antoine Vermette’s line, while Martin Hanzal’s line, their most imposing line, squares off against Steven Stamkos. Johnson is joined by Ondrej Palat and Ryan Callahan, though those two skate on a separate power play unit from Johnson. On the blue line, Victor Hedman and Anton Stralman will skate some with Johnson’s line, and those are the D-men who see power play work.

Paul Stastny’s line at Vancouver – The Sedins are Vancouver’s only really good possession players and the only matchup you really want to avoid with skaters facing the Canucks. The Sedins often see work against depth lines at home, but will also see the opposition’s top line at times. So centering St. Louis’ second line, Stastny should avoid that matchup. He’s joined by Robby Fabbri and Troy Brouwer, who also join Stastny on the second power play unit. Alex Pietrangelo skates with them at even strength and on the power play. St. Louis’ top line along with Kevin Shattenkirk is also an option.

Boone Jenner’s line home to New Jersey – The Devils have all of one forward with good possession numbers, so there are no individual matchups to worry about for the Jackets. When that’s the case, go with the best line, which is Jenner’s. He’s joined by Cam Atkinson on the top line and on the power play. Brandon Saad joins them at even strength but plays on the other power play unit. Ryan Murray plays with the line at even strength and with Jenner/Atkinson on the power play.

Tomas Plekanec’s line in Ottawa – Ottawa is weak possession-wise past their top line, and they have been letting their third line take on the opposing second line in recent home games. That puts Plekanec and the second line in a good spot here, even though Montreal’s first line has been their only productive line lately. Plekanec is joined by Lars Eller, and that pair should skate plenty with Andrei Markov, who is seeing heavy, heavy minutes with injuries up and down Montreal’s blue line.

Jack Eichel’s line in Toronto – Eichel’s line is often worth considering when Buffalo is at home because the Sabres will use them against opposing depth lines in home games. But they may run into another good matchup in Toronto tonight as the Leafs used their fourth line against the opposing second line in their most recent home game. Eichel plays with Sam Reinhart and Zemgus Girgensons both at even strength and on the power play. Rasmus Risolainen joins them on the power play but not at even strength.

Player Rankings

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Here are positional rankings for tonight’s slate. Once again, the colors are on a graded scale from green (good) to red (bad) with yellow as the midpoint.

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are not expected to start tonight but haven’t been ruled out, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check LeftWingLock for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here. Please keep in mind that the projections and values in the chart below are based on matchups on the team level, not on an individual level. So if you see a name in the discussion section above or the rankings above and they have a good value grade here, then they’re a solid play.

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