Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by player rankings for Tuesday’s eight-game slate of NHL contests around the industry. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of an old chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. They’re on a graded scale from green (good) to red (bad) with yellow as the midpoint.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the sixth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players in action today. ‘Proj.’ is a projection from my own Marcel-like projections. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players in action today. And then ‘Value’ is the projection z-score minus the player’s salary z-score.

All shot attempt numbers discussed are at even strength, score-adjusted and weighted for recent performance unless otherwise noted.

And as always, make sure to check Twitter for any injury news, and check LeftWingLock for starting goalies and line combos.

Teams to Target

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Dallas on the road in Montreal

According to the matchup statistic I created and use, the four best matchups for opposing skaters are all off tonight, so there aren’t any really obvious plays. But Montreal is one of a handful of above average matchups for skaters in action tonight, and they happen to be facing one of the best offenses in the league with the Stars in town. Montreal’s top line is their best possession line and one you’d like to avoid when picking Stars. That top line tends to get some shifts away from the opposition’s top six while the second line handles the opposing top line.

That means Dallas’ top line is in play tonight (as they almost always are). Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn will obviously be on that line, and of the two, Seguin is the better choice. Benn has been in a bit of a funk lately, but the main reason Seguin is the preferred option is simply price. He and Benn are of similar value on DK and FanDraft, but Seguin is the much better value on FD, where he’ll be almost impossible not to roster.

The question is who joins them on the top line. Call-up Brett Ritchie has spent some time with them recently, but Patrick Eaves may return tonight, and it would be no surprise to see him play on the top line and possibly even the top power play unit. That line has been skating with Dallas’ new blue line acquisition, Kris Russell, both at even strength and on the power play, so he’s a good option to stack with any of those forwards you roster.

Ottawa on the road in Carolina

With Eric Staal shipped out of town and Andrej Nestrasil out for the rest of the year, Carolina suddenly lacks forward depth, and those were two of their better possession players. As a result, there aren’t really individual matchups you have to be too concerned about when picking skaters facing Carolina. Their top line centered by Jordan Staal is a decent possession unit, but they’re not so imposing that they have to be avoided.

Ottawa’s lines are all jacked up at the moment as the former first line is now scattered among their other three lines. Their former second line remains intact and should now operate as the top line. That’s Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Mark Stone and Zack Smith. Stone and Smith have been skating on the top power play unit with Pageau on the second. But with their lines getting a shake-up, their power play units might as well. No matter, as all three should see power play time no matter what. If you’re rostering any of those forwards, Erik Karlsson can be paired with them from the blue line.

Other Lines to Consider

In the Detroit-Columbus game, I like the top lines of both teams as neither is a dominant possession line likely to smother the other offensively. They might not be lines to target on FD given +/- is part of the scoring there and the lines will likely match up with each other. But on the other sites, they’re worth considering.

The Rangers facing Buffalo on the second game of a back-to-back is intriguing, but Buffalo has actually been a below average matchup thanks to some decent goaltending. Plus, their top line is a good possession trio you don’t want to try and pick on. If you like Rangers, try to exploit Buffalo’s depth issues with Eric Staal and his third line mates. Staal is the only one of the three who sees power play time, so he’s the best option. Dan Boyle joins that line at even strength, and he joins Staal on the second power play unit.

Player Rankings

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Here are positional rankings for tonight’s slate. The color of each player’s salary represents their value on that site. Once again, the colors are on a graded scale from green (good) to red (bad) with yellow as the midpoint.

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are not expected to start tonight but haven’t been ruled out, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check LeftWingLock for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here. Please keep in mind that the projections and values in the chart below are based on matchups on the team level, not on an individual level. So if you see a name in the discussion section above or the rankings above and they have a good value grade here, then they’re a solid play.

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