Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by player rankings for Monday’s four-game evening slate of DraftKings contests. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of an old chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. Purple/blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the seventh one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players in action today. ‘Proj.’ is a projection from numberfire.com’s rest-of-season projections, which I have cut down to a per-game basis and adjusted for matchup. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players in action today. And then ‘Value’ is the projection z-score minus the player’s salary z-score.

All shot attempt numbers discussed are at even strength and score-adjusted unless otherwise noted.

And as always, make sure to check Twitter for any injury news, and check LeftWingLock for starting goalies and line combos.

Teams to Target

Before getting into the specifics of tonight’s slate, I’d recommend that you not invest as much as you would on a normal slate. With fewer options available, ownership rates are higher, which makes it harder to differentiate from the pack. And in order to differentiate, you often have to resort to sub-optimal plays. There’s a lot of “skill versus luck” talk surrounding DFS, and while skill will still serve you well on a short slate, we swing a bit towards the luck side of the pendulum on short slates.

OK, let’s talk hockey.

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Any discussion of Monday’s slate must start with the New York Islanders who will be hosting the Colorado Avalanche. The Avs are by far the best matchup for opposing skaters in action tonight and arguably the best matchup for opposing skaters on any night. If the Flames aren’t playing, and they aren’t tonight, Colorado is the best matchup to pick on. The Avs allow more shot attempts per 60 than any other team, and they have the fifth lowest team save percentage. Lots of shots, lots of goals.

The real question is which Islanders you want to roster. Colorado’s top line, centered by Nathan MacKinnon, is their best trio in terms of possession and goal prevention, so they should be avoided. On the blue line, their top pair of Francois Beauchemin and Erik Johnson is their best defensive pair and should also be avoided if possible. In Colorado’s most recent contest, MacKinnon’s line skated primarily with the top D pair, but in the game prior the MacKinnon line skated with Colorado’s second defensive pair. It’s impossible to say for sure, but I’m operating as if MacKinnon and company will continue to skate with the top D pair.

The next question is which Isles are likely to avoid the MacKinnon/D1 quintet. The game is in New York, so they’ll have the ability to dictate most matchups with last change. In New York’s most recent home games they have always gotten their top line, centered by John Tavares, away from the opposition’s top line to some degree. In their last home game the Tavares line played almost exclusively against the opposition’s second line. In the two games prior they saw some ice with the opposition’s top line, but they saw as much or more ice time against depth lines. That leads me to believe that it will be New York’s second line, centered by Frans Nielsen, that will have the unenviable matchup against the MacKinnon line.

Tavares’ line is thus a good line to target. Tavares himself is priced reasonably enough to roster, especially in this matchup. Likewise, Kyle Okposo is priced reasonably enough, though he’s not a huge value. The real value on that line is Brock Nelson at $4,200. All three stay together on the power play, so the whole line can certainly be used together in tournaments. As far as a mini-stack goes, I prefer Tavares/Nelson given Nelson’s price tag. The problem with Nelson is that he’s only eligible at center on DK, but just be prepared to use at least two Isles listed at center if not three including your UTIL spot. Nick Leddy joins that line on the power play and is quite reasonably priced himself. He could be added to the full line stack or the mini-stack.

The only issue with the Tavares line is that they’re sure to be heavily owned. If you want to be contrarian, the third line is where you go with the second line having the tough individual matchup. Ryan Strome is back and playing on the third line, and he’s a nice value. For a mini-stack I would pair him with center Mikhail Grabovski. Strome is another guy who plays wing but is only eligible at center on DK, so, again, be prepared to load up on Isles “centers” today. For a full-line stack, you would also throw in Nikolai Kulemin. Strome and Kulemin are not seeing power play time at the moment, but Johnny Boychuk is playing on the second unit with Grabovski and should probably be stacked with Grabovski if you go that route.

Moving on from Islanders, I would next look to the Toronto-Edmonton game. The teams rank sixth and eighth in shot attempts allowed per 60, respectively. As for goaltending, Edmonton has the fourth lowest team save percentage, and Toronto will be starting Garret Sparks, who will be making his first career start. Goals could abound.

Toronto’s worst possession and defensive units are their third line and their second D pair. What’s absolutely insane is that in their two most recent home games the third line and second D pair have skated together and have skated against the opposition’s top line. WHAT? I have no idea what they’re thinking. But if that trend continues tonight (the game is in Toronto), Edmonton’s top line, centered by Leon Draisaitl, will have a great individual matchup.

Draisaitl, Taylor Hall and Teddy Purcell comprise the top line and all stay together on the top power play unit. I don’t necessarily think they’re great values, but the matchup is unarguably good. That line should also be popular given how hot they’ve been lately, so if being contrarian is your thing, perhaps look elsewhere. One option on the same team is Jordan Eberle on the third line. The third line should avoid a tough matchup with Toronto’s top line, and Eberle plays with the first line on the top power play unit.

On the other side of that game, you want to target the Leafs that will be on the ice with Edmonton’s second line, centered by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. RNH and his line mates are all below average possession players relative to the other players in action today, and they’ve been on the ice for an above average number of goals this season. As discussed above, Toronto will likely use their third line against the opposition’s top line in order to get their top line matched up with the opposition’s second line, which happens to be the RNH line in this instance. James van Reimsdyk and Nazem Kadri are where I would look to pick on that matchup, even though they’re not under-priced or anything.

I also took a look at the Anaheim-Vancouver game, which, as it turns out, doesn’t provide us any obvious targets. Anaheim’s top line could see some ice against Vancouver’s third D pair given Anaheim’s tendency to get their top line on the ice against depth lines at home. But I can’t say for sure they’ll see that third pair. Plus, Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry are probably too expensive. Rickard Rakell joins Getzlaf/Perry on the top line and top power play unit and is certainly cheap enough to warrant consideration. If you do roster Rakell, you could mini-stack him with defenseman Sami Vatanen who joins him on the top power play unit. As for the Canucks, the Sedins are a viable option from a matchup persepctive as they’ll likely matchup with Anaheim’s checking line, but the twins are too expensive for my liking on DK.

And since I’ve mentioned every other game, I’ll just say that I’m inclined to avoid skaters from the Hurricans-Rangers game.

Player Rankings

Center

1. John Tavares – $8,100 – New York Islanders
2. Brock Nelson – $4,200 – New York Islanders
3. Ryan Strome – $4,300 – New York Islanders
4. Mikhail Grabovski – $2,900 – New York Islanders
5. Rickard Rakell – $3,400 – Anaheim Ducks
6. Nazem Kadri – $4,900 – Toronto Maple Leafs

Winger

1. Kyle Okposo (RW) – $6,000 – New York Islanders
2. Taylor Hall (LW) – $6,900 – Edmonton Oilers
3. Jordan Eberle (RW) – $5,300 – Edmonton Oilers
4. Nikolai Kulemin (LW) – $3,200 – New York Islanders
5. Teddy Purcell (RW) – $3,500 – Edmonton Oilers
6. James van Riemsdyk (LW) – $6,200 – Toronto Maple Leafs

Defensemen

1. Johnny Boychuk – $5,400 – New York Islanders
2. Nick Leddy – $3,600 – New York Islanders
3. Sami Vatanen – $4,800 – Anaheim Ducks
4. Yannick Weber – $3,000 – Vancouver Canucks

Goalies

1. Antti Raanta* – $7,200 – New York Rangers
2. Ryan Miller – $7,300 – Vancouver Canucks
3. Anders Nilsson – $6,300 – Edmonton Oilers
4. Cam Talbot* – $6,200 – Edmonton Oilers
5. Henrik Lundqvist – $8,100 – New York Rangers

The Rangers are the biggest favorite of the short slate. They’re also facing the Hurricanes who are a great matchup for goalies by virtue of them ranking eighth in shots on goal per game but 28th in goals per game. Antti Raanta started on Saturday, so it’s doubtful he’ll go again on Monday, but he’s an excellent value if he does. Lundqvist certainly isn’t a value at his price point, but I’d understand if you felt the need to go with him in cash games. He figures to be a popular pick tonight, so I wouldn’t be overpaying for him in tournaments.

In terms of pure value, I prefer whoever starts in net for Edmonton over Ryan Miller, but Vancouver is a small favorite whereas Edmonton may be a slight dog on the road in Toronto. For that reason, I can see the case for Miller in cash games. And I can also make the case for Miller in GPPs given that Anaheim is a good matchup for goalies as they rank 17th in shots on goal per game but 29th in goals per game. But if you need salary relief, the Edmonton goalie is where you should go.

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are not expected to start tonight but haven’t been ruled out, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check LeftWingLock for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here.

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