Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by player rankings for Tuesday’s nine-game evening slate of DraftKings contests. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of the chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. Purple/blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the seventh one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players in action today. ‘Proj.’ is a projection derived from numberfire.com’s preseason projections which I have cut down to a per-game basis and adjusted for quality of opponent.. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players in action today. And then ‘Value’ is the projection z-score minus the player’s salary z-score.

Make sure to check Twitter for any injury news, and check LeftWingLock for starting goalies and line combos.

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Teams to Target

Let’s start with the St. Louis Blues who will host the Calgary Flames this evening. A lot of the best teams to pick on using last year’s possession metrics aren’t playing tonight, teams like Buffalo, Toronto and Arizona, so we’ll have to dig a little deeper to find good matchups. And the Flames are a decent matchup because they were not a very good possession team last year. Perhaps they’ll improve, but it’s too early in the season to know for sure.

The Flames were one of five teams to allow 60 or more Corsi events against per 60 minutes last year, and three of those other four teams were Buffalo, Toronto and Arizona. Sound familiar? The only difference between the Flames and those other three teams was goaltending. The Flames are still rocking the same goalie tandem they had last year, so there’s certainly a chance the Blues run into a good goalie having a good night. But we can be pretty sure the Blues will put more pucks toward the opposition’s net than almost any other team in action tonight.

I think the forward with the best value in St. Louis’ top six is David Backes. The problem is that I don’t like the wingers he has been playing with on the second line, Dmitrij Jaskin and Troy Brouwer. For that reason, I could see using Backes as a plug-and-play solo guy, but I don’t see a stack or mini-stack there. The first line is where the stack options are. Paul Stastny is himself a pretty good value, and he’s playing with stud wingers Alexander Steen and Vladimir Tarasenko, who are expensive but not overpriced by my model. A mini-stack from that line could certainly work, although stacking the whole line is also a decent option. On the blue line, Kevin Shattenkirk joins the top line and Backes on the top power play unit, making him one of the better D-man plays of the day. And if you need some salary relief, Colton Parayko is cheap and his been seeing some work on the second PP unit.

Now let’s switch gears and pick on bad goaltending. As of this writing it was expected that Al Montoya would start tonight in place of Roberto Luongo. The Panthers allowed Corsi events against per 60 at a rate much lower than average last year, making them a less-than-desirable fantasy matchup. But with Montoya in net as opposed to Carolina, they become one of the better matchups of the day, and the Carolina Hurricanes will have the pleasure of drawing Montoya.

The Canes line to go with is the top line centered by Victor Rask along with Eric Staal and Kris Versteeg. I like Staal and Rask the most, but they’re both only eligible at center on DraftKings, so stacking them together could make building the rest of your lineup a bit tough. If forced to choose a mini-stack, I’d probably go with Staal and Versteeg. That whole line plays on the top power play unit along with defenseman Justin Faulk, so he’s certainly an option tonight. And, again, if you’re looking for salary relief, look to a defenseman seeing work with the second PP unit, John-Michael Liles.

Speaking of bad goaltending, my Dallas Stars will host the Oil tonight, and it is expected that Andres Nilsson will start in net for Edmonton. Nilsson has only played about 1,300 NHL minutes, so the sample size is pretty small, but his save percentage to data is a shade under .900 at .898. Edmonton was a below average, though not awful, possession team last year, so they’re not an automatic team to pick on. But with Nilsson in net, the high-powered Stars offense could come up big. I love the top line that includes the big guns, Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn, and a salary relief option in either Cody Eakin or Patrick Eaves. Eakin was centering the studs early, but Eaves was with them in their last game. Whoever ends up with them at morning skate is a good option. I’ll likely go with the cheap guy and Benn since he’s a bit cheaper than Seguin. Rostering both Benn and Seguin would be tough. On the blue line John Klingberg is an option as he plays on the top power play unit with the big boys.

Based on last year’s metrics, the other above average fantasy matchups tonight belong to Washington against San Jose and Los Angeles against Vancouver. I keep saying according to last year’s numbers because I want to stress we simply don’t know much about this year’s teams yet. Remain conservative with your bankrolls.

The better matchup of the two belongs to Washington. I think the bets option from the Caps when considering both projection and price tag is probably T.J. Oshie. I don’t really care to stack him with either of his line mates, Alexander Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov, because I don’t like their price tags, but I would have no problem using him to fill a stranded spot in your lineup. Were you to stack him, you could pair him John Carlson who joins him on the top power play unit. There’s also a bit of value with Justin Williams on the second line, but he’s not all that much cheaper than Oshie.

As for the Kings, I feel similarly to the way I feel about the Caps. I like one winger, Tyler Toffoli, but I’m not totally wild about any of his line mates. I could see pairing him with Jeff Carter, but I’d be inclined to use him on his own or, more likely, stacking him with a defenseman he plays on the second power play unit with. The options are Jake Muzzin and Alec Martinez. I like Muzzin a bit more, but Martinez is cheaper and could be used if you needed extra salary relief.

Player Rankings

Center

1. Eric Staal – $5,700 – Carolina Hurricanes
2. David Backes – $5,100 – St. Louis Blues
3. Jason Spezza – $5,300 – Dallas Stars
4. Tyler Seguin – $8,000 – Dallas Stars
5. Victor Rask – $4,100 – Carolina Hurricanes
6. Paul Stastny – $4,800 – St. Louis Blues

Winger

1. Jamie Benn (LW) – $7,300 – Dallas Stars
2. T.J. Oshie (RW)- $5,100 – Washington Capitals
3. Alexander Steen (LW) – $6,400 – St. Louis Blues
4. Kris Versteeg (LW) – $4,200 – Carolina Hurricanes
5. Patrick Eaves (RW) – $3,500 – Dallas Stars
6. Nikita Kucherov (RW) – $5,600 – Tampa Bay Lightning
7. Vladimir Tarasenko (RW) – $7,200 – St. Louis Blues
8. Tyler Toffoli (RW) – $5,300 – Los Angeles Kings
9. Justin Williams (RW) – $4,500 – Washington Capitals

Defensemen

1. Kevin Shattenkirk – $5,000 – St. Louis Blues
2. Justin Faulk – $5,300 – Carolina Hurricanes
3. John Klingberg – $4,400 – Dallas Stars
4. Kris Russell – $4,400 – Calgary Flames
5. Jake Muzzin – $4,200 – Los Angeles Kings
6. Colton Parayko – $2,500 – St. Louis Blues

Goalies

1. Eddie Lack – $6,400 – Carolina Hurricanes
2. Cory Schneider – $6,700 – New Jersey Devils
3. Jonathan Quick – $7,300 – Los Angeles Kings
4. Kari Lehtonen – $6,700 – Dallas Stars
5. Braden Holtby – $8,400 – Washington Capitals

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are not expected to start tonight but haven’t been ruled out, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check LeftWingLock for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here.

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