Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by player rankings for Tuesday’s seven-game evening slate of DraftKings contests. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of an old chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. Purple/blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the seventh one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players in action today. ‘Proj.’ is a projection derived from numberfire.com’s preseason projections which I have cut down to a per-game basis and adjusted for quality of opponent. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players in action today. And then ‘Value’ is the projection z-score minus the player’s salary z-score.

Make sure to check Twitter for any injury news, and check LeftWingLock for starting goalies and line combos.

Teams to Target

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The top team to target Tuesday night is probably the Washington Capitals. The Caps, the Isles and the Stars are separated from the pack in terms of implied goal totals according to Vegas. My model likes the Caps the most of those three teams, though we’ll discuss the others momentarily. The Caps will face the Flames who have allowed the sixth most Corsi events against per 60 so far this season, continuing their trend from last year of not being a great possession team. And Karri Ramo will be in net instead of Jonas Hiller, further sweetening the matchup for Washington.

Unsurprisingly, the Caps you want are the top line guys. Were we playing on other sites, you could make the case for the second line being a good value play for tournaments. But on DK, the top line is where it’s at. T.J. Oshie is one of the no-brainer plays of the day as he joins Alex Ovechkin on the top line and top power play unit. Evgeny Kuznetsov centers that top line but does not play on the top power play unit. For that reason, and because his price is just good-not-great, Kuznetsov is probably only a GPP play where you’re stacking that top line. And that’s probably true of Ovechkin as well. At $9,100, Ovi is honestly overpriced. But the Caps arguably have the best matchup of the day, so I wouldn’t fault you for wanting to stack that line. On the blue line, John Carlson is a solid play today whether you stack Caps or not.

As for the Isles and the Stars, I like the Isles but will be passing on the Stars. The Flyers have allowed an average number of Corsi events against per 60 so far and have Steve Mason back tonight, so the matchup is just average. A great offensive team like the Stars can do damage in an average matchup, but their prices are a bit too tough for me to stomach without a solid matchup to lean on.

As for the Isles, they have what appears to be a very good matchup against the floundering Blue Jackets. But there’s simply no way the Blue Jackets can keep playing this poorly. Just in terms of being a fantasy matchup, they’re allowing a slightly below average number of Corsi events against per 60. That means most of the blame for their poor start falls on the shoulders of Sergei Bobrovsky. Bob definitely tailed off a bit last year, but he still posted an above average save percentage of .918. His .835 SV% so far this season will obviously start to correct. That said, the Isles are a very, very good offensive team, so the Columbus rebound may not necessarily start on Tuesday night. Plus, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Bob get the night off in favor of Curtis McElhinney.

As for which Isles to use, I like the value on the wingers that have been skating with John Tavares, Anders Lee and Ryan Strome. Both Lee and Strome also play on the top PP unit with Tavares, so they’re a good cheap way to get exposure to one of the league’s best if you can’t actually pay up for Tavares himself. But were I to find a way to pay up big for a skater, I’d prefer to find a way to pay for Ovi.

On the other side of that Isles-Jackets game, I honestly like Columbus a bit. We’ve played 4-6 games, and what we have seen certainly isn’t how the rest of the season is going to play out. I’m not saying the Jackets start to get right tonight, but I do think they get it together soon. And the Isles are an above average matchup for opposing skaters, so it could start tonight. The Isles are like a less extreme version of the Stars. They put a ton of pucks on net and score a lot, but they also allow their opponents to do a fair bit of the same.

The problem I’m having with the Jackets is that the three or four guys from that team that my model likes the most are somewhat disjointed. I like the second line pair of Brandon Dubinksy and Boone Jenner a bit, but Jenner doesn’t see power play time. And Scott Hartnell grades out well, but he plays on the third line, though he does see PP1 time. But my model likes Nick Foligno the most, so were I to go with a Columbus stack I’d pair Foligno with his first line and PP1 center, Ryan Johansen.

Speaking of that fantasy friendly style that the Stars and Isles play, I also like Dallas’ opponent tonight, the Philadelphia Flyers. Claude Giroux is one of the most reasonably priced elite players tonight, so I’m inclined to get some exposure to him. To offset his reasonable-but-still-above-average cost he can be paired with the cheap Michael Raffl who has been playing on the top line and top power play unit with Giroux. Were you to go with that mini-stack, I’d probably also pair them with Mark Streit who joins them on the top power play unit. If you don’t end up using a Philly mini-stack but just need a cheaper defenseman in a lineup, Michael Del Zotto is someone to consider. Though at $4,100, he’s not super cheap. But he is the cheapest defenseman I have ranked below, so I think defense is a decent spot to spend money tonight.

Finally, I have to mention the New Jersey Devils as a possible play. The Devils were rarely a fantasy consideration last year outside of goalie Cory Schneider, but I like their matchup with Arizona tonight. The Coyotes are tied with Calgary for the sixth most Corsi events against per 60, and Mike Smith‘s hot start has already cooled off as he has a .846 SV% in his last two starts. Don’t forget Smith had a .904 SV% last year. Aside from the good matchup, the Devils are cheap, and they might not be heavily owned.

The first line pair of Adam Henrique and Mike Cammalleri is probably the safest New Jersey play as they also play on the PP unit together. They also qualify as wingers, which could allow you to get a center in your utility spot or roster line mates who are both only eligible at center, like Anders Lee and Ryan Strome. Lee Stempniak has also been playing on the top line, but he has been playing on the second power play unit. Henrique and Cammalleri alone would provide nice salary relief, but adding Stempniak to the mix in a GPP would really free you up to spend on someone big like Ovi or Tavares. If you want to get downright contrarian, second line wingers Kyle Palmieri and Jiri Tlusty could make for a good pairing. I don’t think that’s quite necessary, but I do think Palmieri on his own makes for a very nice salary relief option as a plug-and-play. He has been playing on the top power play unit with Henrique and Cammalleri.

In goal, my model likes Roberto Luongo against Pittsburgh the most, but I’m having a hard time trusting that. The Pens have been a very good matchup for goalies so far as they put a lot of pucks toward the net and haven’t scored many goals. That’s a great recipe for a DFS goalie. But the Penguins have the league’s third lowest shooting percentage, and that’s going to correct itself sooner rather than later. Plus, Vegas has Pittsburgh as a -156 favorite, so this just doesn’t seem like a safe cash game play. There’s GPP upside, though.

That -156 line for Pittsburgh is the highest of the night, so perhaps Marc-Andre Fleury is a cash game consideration. My model doesn’t love him as the Panthers aren’t a team that puts a ton of puck on net. However, Vegas has Florida with the lowest implied goal total of the night, so I wouldn’t blame you for riding Fleury in cash games.

For cash games I’d probably recommend New Jersey’s Cory Schneider. Schneider is doing his thing with a .945 SV% in three starts so far this season. And while Arizona has been good offensively so far this season, they were one of the best matchups in the league for goalies last year. The Devils are a solid -126 favorite, which is a decent line tonight in a slate absent huge favorites. Arizona also has the fourth lowest implied goal total tonight, so there’s not really a variable working against Schneider this evening.

Player Rankings

Center

1. Claude Giroux – $6,700 – Philadelphia Flyers
2. Ryan Strome – $4,600 – New York Islanders
3. Anders Lee – $4,800 – New York Islanders
4. Ryan Johansen – $6,200 – Columbus Blue Jackets
5. Brandon Dubinsky – $4,500 – Columbus Blue Jackets
6. Evgeny Kuznetsov – $5,100 – Washington Capitals

Winger

1. T.J. Oshie – $5,400 – Washington Capitals
2. Nick Foligno – $5,900 – Columbus Blue Jackets
3. Kyle Palmieri – $3,600 – New Jersey Devils
4. Scott Hartnell – $5,300 – Columbus Blue Jackets
5. Mike Cammalleri – $4,900 – New Jersey Devils
6. Adam Henrique – $4,400 – New Jersey Devils
7. Michael Raffl – $3,900 – Philadelphia Flyers
8. Jiri Tlusty – $3,000 – New Jersey Devils
9. Lee Stempniak – $3,100 – New Jersey Devils

Defensemen

1. John Carlson – $6,200 – Washington Capitals
2. Michael Del Zotto – $4,100 – Philadelphia Flyers
3. Kris Letang – $5,400 – Pittsburgh Penguins
4. Dennis Wideman – $4,800 – Calgary Flames
5. Mark Streit – $4,300 – Philadelphia Flyers

Goalies

1. Cory Schneider – $6,800 – New Jersey Devils
2. Roberto Luongo – $7,500 – Florida Panthers
3. Marc-Andre Fleury – $7,800 – Pittsburgh Penguins
4. Antti Niemi* – $6,800 – Dallas Stars

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are not expected to start tonight but haven’t been ruled out, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check LeftWingLock for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here.

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