Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by player rankings for Tuesday’s 10-game evening slate of DraftKings contests. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of an old chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. Purple/blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the seventh one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players in action today. ‘Proj.’ is a projection derived from numberfire.com’s rest-of-season projections which I have cut down to a per-game basis and adjusted for quality of opponent. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players in action today. And then ‘Value’ is the projection z-score minus the player’s salary z-score.

Make sure to check Twitter for any injury news, and check LeftWingLock for starting goalies and line combos.

Teams to Target

[cointent_lockedcontent article_labels=”hockey”]

There are no great offenses with great matchups tonight, so you’ll have to choose great offenses with average matchups or average offenses with great matchups. Let’s start by discussing the teams with great matchups.

For my money, Colorado is the worst team in the league and the best matchup for opposing skaters. No team is allowing the opposition to put the puck towards the net more than the Avs, and it’s not even close. At even strength (score adjusted), Colorado is allowing about nine more shot attempts per 60 minutes than any other team, which is an incredible margin. That makes them a good matchup even when Semyon Varlamov is in net, but with Reto Berra confirmed as tonight’s starter, it makes them an even juicier matchup.

The Florida Panthers are the lucky beneficiaries of this matchup, but no Panthers jump out as obvious plays according to my model. The value plays are Brandon Pirri and Reilly Smith, but they have not been playing on the same line recently. They were the wingers for Nick Bjugstad early in the season, but with Bjugstad moving up to the top line in Aleksander Barkov‘s absence, Pirri and Smith have not been together. If they end up being moved back on to the same line, I would love that mini-stack. But as it stands, you’ll probably have to go with Bjugstad and Jonathan Huberdeau for a Florida mini-stack. I don’t love them because there’s no value in their price tags, but they’re not overpriced.

The other great matchup belongs to the Philadelphia Flyers against the Buffalo Sabres. Only Colorado is allowing more shot attempts than the Sabres, so Buffalo is still a team to pick on. The price tags on the top line pair of Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek are more than reasonable, so it’s going to be tough to fade what will probably be a popular mini-stack. On the blue line, Mark Streit can be paired with Giroux/Voracek as the trio plays on the top power play together. And Michael Del Zotto on the second unit is a decent value as well if you need a plug-and-play D-man around $4,000.

The third best matchup of the day probably belongs to the Boston Bruins against the Coyotes. The matchup isn’t quite as good, so I’m less inclined to focus on B’s. But I can’t ignore that my model really likes Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and Torey Krug. Bergeron and Marchand play on the top line together while Bergeron and Krug play on the top power play unit. I would have no objection to pairing a couple of those guys in a lineup.

The good offenses with average-ish matchups are Dallas at home against the Ducks (a game which I will be attending and yelling at Corey Perry to eat a dick) and St. Louis hosting the Lightning. St. Louis wouldn’t look like a great offense if you only looked at goal totals, but no team has more shot attempts at even strength than the Blues. And actually, Dallas ranks second in that stat. Dallas has managed to score a lot by shooting a lot (6th in goals per game), but the Blues are only slightly above average in terms of goals scored per game. St. Louis’s shooting percentage is below average, so the goals should come in greater numbers once that evens out a bit.

On each team I think the top lines are really the only spot you can go. For the Blues that’s because they’re missing key pieces in Jaden Schwartz and Paul Stastny. And for the Stars that’s because I think some of their depth scoring options are a bit over-priced. The better value is with the Blues top line simply because center Jori Lehtera remains cheap. If you need salary relief, Lehtera and a winger (or two) are where you get it. But were money no object, the Stars matchup with the Ducks is a bit better. Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn are always tough to fit in a lineup, but maybe you could fit one of them in along with Patrick Sharp who is due. On the blue line, Colton Parayko remains absurdly cheap and provides even more salary relief from St. Louis playing on the top power play unit. And Dallas’ John Klingberg is always a consideration if you’re thinking of playing Stars.

Player Rankings

Center

1. Claude Giroux – $6,700 – Philadelphia Flyers
2. Patrice Bergeron – $5,900 – Boston Bruins
3. Nick Bjugstad – $5,900 – Florida Panthers
4. Brandon Pirri – $4,300 – Florida Panthers
5. Jori Lehtera – $3,900 – St. Louis Blues
6. Tyler Seguin – $8,400 – Dallas Stars

Winger

1. Jakub Voracek (RW) – $6,400 – Philadelphia Flyers
2. Alexander Steen (LW) – $6,600 – St. Louis Blues
3. Patrick Sharp (LW) – $5,700 – Dallas Stars
4. Brad Marchand (LW) – $4,600 – Boston Bruins
5. Jonathan Huberdeau (LW) – $5,500 – Florida Panthers
6. Reilly Smith (RW) – $3,800 – Florida Panthers
7. Vladimir Tarasenko (RW) – $7,600 – St. Louis Blues
8. Jamie Benn (LW) – $7,800 – Dallas Stars

Defensemen

1. Mark Streit – $4,500 – Philadelphia Flyers
2. Torey Krug – $5,200 – Boston Bruins
3. Michael Del Zotto – $4,000 – Philadelphia Flyers
4. Colton Parayko – $3,100 – St. Louis Blues
5. John Klingberg – $4,700 – Dallas Stars

Goalies

1. Steve Mason – $6,900 – Philadelphia Flyers
2. Cory Schneider – $6,800 – New Jersey Devils
3. Ondrej Pavelec – $6,500 – Winnipeg Jets
4. Michael Hutchinson* – $6,500 – Winnipeg Jets

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are not expected to start tonight but haven’t been ruled out, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check LeftWingLock for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here.

[/cointent_lockedcontent]