Lesson learned from my first UFC post last week: Worry less about how many points fighters score in the cage and worry more about who wins the fight. It’s not that the “moves scoring” points as DK calls them (significant strikes, takedowns, etc…) aren’t important, it’s just that none of that matters unless you pick enough winners. Fighters that don’t score much while in the cage may be fighters to avoid because of that fact, even if they’re a good bet to win, but fighters who produce at a high rate in the Octagon aren’t necessarily fighters to roster. If you need a refresher on DK’s scoring rules, you can see the scoring rules here.

Yada, yada, yada, let’s talk about each fight on what I’d call a mediocre pay-per-view card but still one I’ll gladly be purchasing.

Robbie Lawler ($10,600) vs. Tyron Woodley ($9,000)

Let’s start by being reductive and just discussing each fighter’s most recent performances. On one hand you have Robbie Lawler who has won eight of his last nine fights. He has won five in a row in that stretch with three of those being title fights. His one loss in the stretch was in a title fight. His last seven fights have been against top 10 caliber welterweights, and four or five of those fights have been against the very best in division. His track record is damn near impeccable. If there’s one concern in his recent results, it’s that his last three wins have come by two split decisions and a fifth round knockout of a fight he might have lost had it gone to a decision.

On the other hand you’ve got Tyron Woodley whose best win was over Carlos Condit in March of 2014. His only other fight against elite competition was a unanimous decision loss against Rory MacDonald. His last fight was a nice win over Kelvin Gastellum, but that was a split decision win way back in January of 2015 before Gastellum solidified his position in the top ranks of the division.  And yeah, January of 2015. That’s the last time Woodley fought. To put it into perspective, Woodley has never fought in Reebok gear. There are arguments as to why Woodley could win this fight, which we’ll get to in a second, but there’s no question Lawler has a much more established track record against much stiffer competition.

Woodley’s way to victory here is his right hand. He throws it a lot and has legitimate knockout power. If you’ve watched a Robbie Lawler fight before, you know he’s willing to stand and trade at times, which could be dangerous against Woodley’s power. But I think that’s the only way Woodley wins this fight. Not to say it’s not a decent chance of winning, it’s just the only way I can see it happening. And if it happens, expect it to happen relatively early. Woodley has never gone more than three rounds and has still had his stamina questioned despite never seeing a fourth round in the UFC. Lawler has seen the fifth round in four straight fights and in five of his last six. If this things gets past the third, it’s hard to see it going to Woodley. Lawler should be able to win the later rounds and take any decision, and he can also end the fight late.

When it comes down to rostering either of these guys in DFS lineups, Lawler is a cash option and Woodley is a GPP option. Lawler opened as the second largest favorite of the fight card, and the previous 400 words have been slanted much more in his favor. He’ll likely be a popular fighter to own on name recognition alone, so I’d look elsewhere in GPPs. I honestly think there are safer option in cash, but feel free to roster the champ in cash. As for Woodley, his knockout power absolutely gives him the upside to win this fight and to win it early, all at a cheap price on DK. I’ll probably gamble elsewhere, but it’s a legitimate option. In the end, I’m unlikely to roster either fighter.

Rose Namajunas ($10,800) vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz ($8,600)

I’m not sure I can be objective about this fight. I friggin’ love Rose Namajunas. On her season of The Ultimate Fighter she was both the most exciting fighter on the show and the most interesting personality. I present the following as evidence of her ability to excite in the cage:

#UFC201 pic.twitter.com/v2cUKR1SBg

— JustBleedMMA (@JustBleedMMA) July 29, 2016

That is an insanely awesome submission but also an insane submission attempt. In her last two fights she’s done nothing of the sort, and she’s turned into a much more disciplined fighter. She’s been taught to use her excellent mobility and her length to manage distance and play an effective striking game. It just so happens that the “stick-and-move” style she’s developed will serve her well in this matchup.

Kowalkiewicz’s game is all about volume. She throws a lot of strikes and she lands a lot of them, too. In just two UFC fights (both went the distance) she has landed 185 significant strikes. Among the 22 fighters in action today, she ranks 11th in career significant strikes, and, again, she’s fought only twice in the UFC. But I have to imagine that Rose’s ability to manage distance will result in Kowalkiewicz throwing and landing fewer shots than she has in previous fights because Namajunas represents a huge step up in competition for Kowalkiewicz.

While I feel pretty confident that Namajunas wins this fight, that doesn’t necessarily mean she’s the one to roster in DFS. Namajunas is one of four or five fighters that are quite likely to win, but most of those fighters carry price tags near $11,000. In all likelihood, you’ll only be able to roster two of them, and I’d be lying if I said Rose was definitively on of the two best options from that group.

On the other hand, Kowalkiewicz potentially carries some value. This fight is the second most likely of the 11 fights to go the distance, and if Kowalkiewicz could land strikes at anywhere near the pace she normally does, she’d rack up a fair amount of fantasy points in 15 minutes. And being the person who threw more volume in a fight that goes to a decision is never a bad thing, so Kowalkiewicz could absolutely steal a decision win here. There are some other salary relief options, but rostering Kowalkiewicz would allow you to roster three big favorites.

Matt Brown ($10,900) vs. Jake Ellenberger ($8,500)

Brown is another one of those four or five fighters most likely to win, and he may be a safer option than Namajunas. Yeah, Brown has lost three of his last four, but those losses have been to the current champ, the former champ, and Demian Meia, who could well get a title shot soon. He’s lost to the elite of the elite in this division. Plus, Brown’s recent history isn’t nearly as bad as Ellenberger’s as Ellenberger has lost five of his last six, and his last two losses have not been against the best competition.

Brown is the second biggest favorite of the night in Vegas, and it’s even money on this three-round fight going over 1.5 rounds. At -110 to win by KO/TKO, Brown is the only fighter on the card you’d have to bet more than $100 on to win by KO/TKO to get $100 back on a winning bet. It’s hard to make a case against Brown winning this thing and doing it by getting some nice fight conclusion bonus points on DK. The only question is whether there are a couple other expensive guys you’d rather roster.

Erik Perez ($9,700) vs. Francisco Rivera ($9,700)

The fact that both of these fighters have the same price tag should tell you that this is a difficult fight to predict. Vegas likes Perez at -175, but more experts seem to be picking Rivera. The expert I trust the most, Patrick Wyman, thinks the matchup sets up better for Rivera and likes him by second round knockout. So in addition to the price tags not being indicative of a likely winner, Vegas and the experts being at odds aren’t helping either. Both guys have scored almost the exact same number of fantasy points per minute in their UFC careers (excluding fight conclusion bonuses), which further muddies up this fight. With all that ambiguity, I think it’s a fight to stay away from.

Fredy Serrano ($9,900) vs. Ryan Benoit ($9,500)

I don’t mean to get lazy on you, but this fight is also a stay away. The price tags are again similar, and Serrano is a tiny favorite at -120. In that Wyman recap linked to above, Wyman says “Without any real confidence, the pick is Serrano by decision.” Just pass on this fight.

Nikita Krylov ($10,200) vs. Ed Herman ($9,200)

After fighting his first two UFC fights as a heavyweight, Nikita Krylov moved down to light heavyweight. In his first fight in his new weight class he was unlucky enough to draw Ovince St. Preux who had not yet established himself as one of the better fighters in the decision. OSP submitted Krylov quickly and has since gone on to get a title shot and is currently ranked sixth in the division. But since the OSP fight, Krylov has ripped off four straight victories, all by stoppage, with three of the four ending in the first round and none of them making it past the second. Krylov is the second most likely fighter to win by stoppage today after Matt Brown, and Krylov is the third biggest favorite of the night in Vegas. You’ve got an average of $10,000 to spend per fighter on DK and Krylov is only $200 above that average. He’ll be almost impossible not to roster.

Jorge Masvidal ($10,700) vs. Ross Pearson ($8,700)

Masvidal is another one of those four or five fighters most likely to win tonight, but he’s probably my least favorite of the bunch. This fight is very likely to go to a decision with Vegas having a -230 tag on betting it to go the distance. That obviously means the chances of Masvidal getting some nice bonus points for a stoppage win aren’t that high. The other problem is that Masvidal isn’t a high output fighter. Rostering a fighter who wins by decision is fine, but you’d like them to take advantage of all those minutes in the cage and rack up some points while they’re in there. Masvidal scores fantasy points per minute at a below average rate, so he’s ill-suited for fantasy lineups. He’s fairly safe, but lean towards some of the other safe options.

Damian Grabowski ($10,000) vs. Anthony Hamilton ($9,400)

Just about any fight recap you read is going to describe these guys as “bad” heavyweights. That plus the fact that the favorite is only -135 makes rostering either fighter a risky proposition in cash games. But there’s likely to be a stoppage here with a -235 tag on this not going to decision, so these guys would make sense in a GPP. Hamilton is actually a slight favorite in Vegas and the cheaper fighter, so he’s probably the guy I’d gamble with.

Wilson Reis ($11,000) vs. Hector Sandoval ($8,400)

Reis is the most expensive fighter of the card and Sandoval is the cheapest, so it’s not hard to figure out who is the favorite here. Reis was originally scheduled to fight Demetrious Johnson in a co-main event flyweight title fight. Johnson had to pull out of the fight with an injury, but Reis will stay on the card to fight Sandoval. The fantasy analysis here is pretty simple, if you can fit Reis into your cash games lineups, feel free to do so, but don’t feel obligated to do so. Reis is very likely to win this fight but not necessarily likely to rack up a ton of fantasy points. He doesn’t score a ton of fantasy points per minute in this cage, and only one of his six UFC fights has ended early. He’s safe, but there’s just no guarantee of a huge point total here.

Michael Graves ($10,500) vs. Bojan Velickovic ($8,900)

Everything I said about Jorge Masvidal applies to Michael Graves. Yeah, Graves is a pretty big favorite and likely to win the fight, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to score a ton of fantasy points. Graves scores even fewer fantasy points per minute than Masvidal, though I will admit the sample size is small with Graves only having two UFC fights under his belt. And like the Masvidal fight, this one is more likely than not to go to a decision with a -195 tag on it going the distance. I’d be more likely to roster Graves than Masvidal since Graves is a tad cheaper and this fight is a little less likely to go to a decision. But neither guy is a fighter to specifically target.

Cesar Arzamendia ($9,600) vs. Damien Brown ($9,800)

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Each of these fighters has one UFC fight to their name, and the loser may well end his career with only two UFC fights to his name. Who knows what to make of this fight, and Vegas agrees with there basically being even money on both fighters. Experts like Wyman among others seem to think Arzamendia is the better striker here and the likely winner of the fight, but, again, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. Perhaps Arzamendia could be a salary relief option if you need someone around that price point, but that’s about it.