You see a lot of DFS content here at The Fix — baseball, basketball, football, hockey, we pretty much cover it all — but you’ve never before seen MMA DFS content in this particular corner of the internet. Whether you love MMA or never watch it, having a DFS roster going during a fight card will up your interest. You’ll go from uninterested to at least a basic level of interest or from “this is awesome” to “this is awesome and I give a damn about the prelim fights.” I’m a member of that latter group.

What I am not is an MMA expert. I’ve grown much more interested in the sport in the last three years or so, and I’ve recently upped my game to being someone who watches some old fights on Fight Pass to familiarize myself with fighters on an upcoming card. But I will not pretend to understand the techniques in play, and I’ll do very little analyzing of styles and how fighters matchup with other fighters. Any talk like that I’ll be ripping straight from Connor Ruebusch and Patrick Wyman of the Heavy Hands Podcast. Those guys are the best in the business for my money, and I highly recommend their podcast and written content if you want to dive deeper into MMA.

What I am is a guy with a system for developing DFS lineups. In baseball and hockey I start with season-long projections from a reputable source like Fangraphs or I come up with some quick and easy MARCEL-like projections. Each day I cut those season-long projections down to a per-game basis and adjust for variables in play that day like ball park, opponent, weather and playing time. I then compare those daily projections to a player’s cost to determine value. The obvious problem here is that no one has MMA projections, so I took it upon myself to create some.

There are two main components to MMA scoring on DraftKings, “Moves Scoring” and “Fight Conclusion Bonuses.” You can see the scoring rules here.

Moves Scoring includes significant strikes, knockdowns, takedowns, advances and reversals/sweeps. To come up with projections for Moves Scoring I’ve simply calculated the number of Moves Scoring points accumulated by each fighter in their UFC career and then divided that by their total number of minutes in the Octagon to derive their points scored per minute in the cage. From there, I have utilized Vegas lines to determine the percentage chance that each fight goes the distance or ends with a stoppage to give me a number I’m calling expected minutes (xMin). I then multiply points scored per minute by xMin to give me the expected number of Moves Scoring points (xPts) the fighter will earn in their fight. Follow all that?

Fight Conclusion Bonuses points are pretty self-explanatory. A fighter gets bonus points for winning the fight and gets more of them the earlier they finish the fight. To project bonuses I again utilized Vegas lines to determine each fighter’s odds of winning and then additionally their odds of winning by stoppage or by decision. The Vegas over/unders on how many rounds the fight will last also factored into this calculation. Still with me?

tl;dr I’ve come up with projections based on past performances and Vegas lines. Now let’s get to some actual discussion of the fighters and hit each fight on the card.

Francis Ngannou ($11,500) vs. Bojan Mihajlovic ($7,900) – Heavyweight

Let’s start with the Ngannou fight since Ngannou is the most expensive fighter of the slate and the biggest favorite in Vegas. At -600 Ngannou is the most heavily favored fighter by a mile with the next biggest favorite coming in at -250. With those kinds of odds, you can easily see why Ngannou is the most expensive fighter. The question is whether he’s worth the price tag.

In addition to Ngannou being the heaviest favorite, Vegas also has this fight being the most likely to be over quickly with -175 odds that this ends in the first round. The 100 point bonus for a first round win is the ultimate prize in MMA DFS, and Ngannou is by far the most likely guy to get those bonus points. Ngannou also racks up an above average number of scoring points per minute, but that’s unlikely to be factor with the high probability of an early stoppage.

My projection for Ngannou comes in a full two standard deviations above the mean projection for fighters on this card, but his price tag isn’t quite two standard deviations above the mean salary. That means Ngannou is worth his price tag and just the slightest of bargains. He’s a no-brainer in cash games, and you’ll be hard pressed to leave him out of GPP lineups as well. You’ve got four other spots to be contrarian if you want to be, and you’ll end up with some cheaper fighters if you go that route, which will leave you the funds to be able to roster Ngannou.

For what it’s worth, the Heavy Hands guys discussed Ngannou on this week’s podcast and described him as one of the best prospects in the heavyweight division. They also mentioned his excellent athleticism and praised the improvements he made between his first and second UFC fights with this to be his third fight in the promotion. He won both of his first two fights by stoppage in the second round. Below is a GIF of Ngannou stopping Luis Henrique (who is also fighting on this card) with a vicious uppercut in his first UFC fight.

Holly Holm ($11,000) vs. Valentina Shevchenko ($8,600) – Women’s Bantamweight

This is the main event of the evening, so it’s the only five round fight of the night with no titles on the line on this card. For DFS purposes it’s a good thing this one is five rounds because the odds of either fighter ending the fight aren’t high. Vegas has a -170 tag on this going over 4.5 rounds, and neither of these fighters carries a ton of knockout power. Yeah, Holm knocked out Ronda Rousey, but Shevchenko, primarily a counter-puncher, won’t be running at Holm with her chin out like Rousey did.  And if you watched Holm fight Rousey and/or Miesha Tate, you know she’s excellent at keeping range and avoiding getting hit. Bonus points seem unlikely in this one and you certainly can’t bank on them.

That leaves us with scoring points, and, again, these fighters will have five rounds instead of three to score. Both fighters rack up scoring points per minute at just a slightly above average rate, so neither fighter has a distinct advantage there. Holm is basically a two-to-one favorite when you remove the juice from the Vegas line, so she’s obviously the safer play, but Shevchenko may well be the better DFS option with a price tag $2,400 lower than Holm’s. Holm likely out-lands Shevchenko but probably not by a significant margin, and the $2,400 in savings with Shevchenko are more valuable in lineup construction that Holm’s higher likelihood of getting 25 bonus points from a decision win.

The five round aspect of this fight and the likelihood that it goes to a decision make Shevchenko a solid cash play as she’ll likely have 25 minutes to rack up points. And Holm will likely be the more popular fighter to own, which also gives Shevchenko some contrarian appeal in GPPs.

Edson Barboza ($10,400) vs. Gilbert Melendez ($9,000) – Lightweight

Barboza is one of the more fun fighters to watch on this card. If you have Fight Pass, go back and watch his fight from December against Tony Ferguson. What a barn-burner. And Barboza may well have won that fight if he hadn’t been stunned by an illegal upkick that undoubtedly worked in Ferguson’s favor. Since GIFs are fun, at the end of this fight blurb check out the elbow Barboza landed on Ferguson that bloodied Ferguson up (note Dana’s reaction after).

As for this fight, Barboza is a solid favorite around -215. Just as an armchair fight analyst, I’m always impressed when I watch Barboza fight and always underwhelmed when I watch Melendez fight. Barboza is the younger and more athletic fighter, and he’s also likely to be more active than Melendez. Barboza ranks seventh among the card’s 22 fighters in scoring points per minute while Melendez ranks 12th.

The biggest problem with this fight from a fantasy perspective is the likelihood that it goes to a decision. The over on 2.5 rounds is about -185, and it has been six fights since Barboza won by stoppage while Melendez hasn’t won by stoppage in any of his four UFC fights. The average scoring output from Melendez and the low likelihood of fight conclusion bonus points makes him an unattractive DFS option, even at his low price point. I really have a hard time seeing Barboza losing this fight, so I suppose he’ll work for cash games. But I think there are other favorites around the same price point who score more and have a better chance of bonus points.

Felice Herrig ($9,600) vs. Kailin Curran ($9,800) – Women’s Straweight

We only have three of her fights to go off of, but Curran has been a point scoring machine in her young UFC career. She tops all fighters on this card in scoring points per minute. The over on 2.5 rounds is around -175, so there’s a decent chance Curran will get to score points for the full 15 minutes, though she hasn’t gotten to a decision in any of her three UFC fights. With the line on this fight being about even money and a stoppage being less likely than not, you can’t bank on bonus points on this one. But Curran’s pace is bankable, and you can roster her high output style for under five figures. I also don’t really see her getting stopped, and her output makes her the favorite if this gets to a decision I think. That makes her a really nice value and someone I’m very likely to roster.

Frankie Saenz ($10,000) vs. Eddie Wineland ($9,400) – Bantamweight

The only fighter on this card who comes close to matching Curran in terms of scoring points per minute is Frankie Saenz, and this fight is even more likely to go the distance than Curran’s. The over on 2.5 rounds is around -215, and Saenz has gone to a decision in all four of his UFC fights. He’s also won three of those four fights with his only loss coming in a tough matchup against Urijah Faber. Combine his scoring and the likely length of the fight with Saenz being a -165 favorite and being only $200 more expensive than Curran and you’ve got a really nice DFS value on your hands. He’ll be a staple of my lineups.

Darren Elkins ($10,300) vs. Godofredo Pepey ($9,100) – Featherweight

This fight doesn’t offer overly appealing DFS options. Elkins is the favorite here with a solid 10-4 record in the UFC, and he’s a bit better than average in scoring points per minute. The problem is that he’s less productive per minute than someone like Saenz who is $300 cheaper, and I think he has a lower chance of getting a finish than Barboza and Barboza is slightly more productive per minute and only $100 more expensive. The other problem for Elkins is the fact that his opponent has the ability to stop fights as Pepey has won his last three fights by stoppage. That means Elkins has a lower chance than those other fighters mentioned of getting to score for 15 minutes.

Pepey has some GPP appeal given his ability to finish fights and his low price tag. He doesn’t do much scoring per minute, but if he gets a stoppage, even if it happens in the third round, he’ll return value on his price tag. If he were to get a stoppage before the third round, he’d return excellent value.

Kamaru Usman ($10,800) vs. Alexander Yakovlev ($8,600) – Welterweight

Four of 11 fights have a -215 tag on over 2.5 rounds, the highest over tag of the card, and this is one of them, so the odds are good this one is going to a decision. That rules out Yakovlev who doesn’t produce much scoring per minute and who has gone the distance in three of four UFC fights, though he did win his last fight by TKO. Usman is still in play as he ranks fifth in scoring points per minute, but his price tag is a little high. I’d need him to be one of the top per minute producers of the card or have a higher likelihood of getting a stoppage to justify his price tag.

Michel Prazeres ($10,900) vs. J.C. Cottrell ($8,500) – Lightweight

I’ve got no data on Cottrell who is making his UFC debut, and Prazeres is the second most over-priced fighter on this card according to my projections. This is another one of those four fights with a -215 tag on over 2.5 rounds, so a stoppage and the corresponding bonus points aren’t likely in this one. Prazeres is a heavy favorite, but he’s also well below average in terms of scoring points per minute. Prazeres just doesn’t seem likely to live up to his lofty price tag with a decision win and low output.

Alex Oliveira ($10,700) vs. James Moontasri ($8,700) – Welterweight

This is one of three fights where Vegas thinks a stoppage is more likely than a decision, which is good because neither fighter scores many points per minute. Two of Oliveira’s three UFC wins have come by way of stoppage, and four of his five fights have ended early. Moontasri’s last three fights have ended early with two of them being W’s. Oliveira is a pretty big favorite at -225, so he’s the cash game play here. Anyone who is a large favorite in fights expected to end early make tons of cash sense, but it should be noted you’re not getting any value on him at that price point. Moontasri, on the other hand, makes sense in GPPs. He’s even cheaper than the aforementioned Pepey, and Moontasri has a recent track record of stoppages that is almost as good as Pepey’s.

Jim Alers ($10,600) v. Jason Knight ($8,800) – Featherweight

Knight has just one UFC fight under his belt, and it was decision loss in which he wasn’t overly productive. You can ignore him. Alers has been a productive per minute scorer in his three UFC fights ranking fifth among this card’s fighters in points per minute. This is another one of those four fights with a -215 tag on the over of 2.5 rounds, so Alers should have the chance to put his production to good use over 15 minutes. The problem is that he’s more expensive than four other fighters who fit the “highly productive, likely to go the distance” mold. I’d definitely rather roster the most productive and cheaper fighters from that group, Saenz and Curran, and I’d also prefer a slightly cheaper fighter like Barboza.

Luis Henrique ($9,300) vs. Dmitrii Smoliakov ($10,100) – Heavyweight

This fight isn’t quite as likely to end in the first as Ngannou’s fight is but it’s close with a -150 tag on the under of 1.5 rounds. The problem here is that we know little about either fighter. This is Smoliakov’s first UFC fight, and Henrique has only one UFC fight under his belt (the Ngannou knockout GIF’d above). Based on what I’ve read about this fight, I think there’s a decent chance it gets to the ground at some point, which make a really early stoppage less likely. For that reason I’m not overly inclined to roster either fighter. But Smoliakov is a decent favorite at -155 in a fight Vegas thinks will end early, so he does have some cash appeal, albeit at a higher price point than I’d like.