2013 Fantasy BaseballChris Garosi

2013 Fantasy Baseball: The Week 18 Closer Report

It’s just a few days until the non-waiver trading deadline in the major leagues. We may see some upheaval in the Chicago bullpen. And there have been rumors that the Rangers are willing to move Joe Nathan in a deal for a hitter. I’ve kept the table for all 30 teams at the end of this piece. You can see any changes from the prior week in red. I’ll try to detail most of the reasons for changes below.

Check out my piece from earlier today on the Jose Veras trade to Detroit.

Chicago Cubs

Kevin Gregg is still the closer and for the Cubs, but there is rampant speculation that he won’t be come Wednesday. The only problem with that theory is Gregg hasn’t been very good for the Cubs lately. Since July 1, Gregg has pitched 12 innings with a 5.25 ERA walking 11 and striking out only six. He does have eight saves, so he’s helped your team there, but I’m not sure what Gregg could bring in a trade. If the Cubs are willing to deal him for a hot meal, he’ll move. If the Cubs decide they want to hang on to him because he’s a proven closer, then he sticks around.

Pedro Strop was acquired from the Orioles earlier this season. Strop had a 7.25 ERA over 22 1/3 innings pitched striking out 24 and walking for the O’s. Since his acquisition, Strop has thrown 9 2/3 innings, striking out 12, walking only three and giving up no runs. Oh, his career walk rate is 5.2/9. The Strop we’ve seen for the Cubs is not the Strop we all know. Strop could be a candidate to close should Gregg get dealt and I think he gets the first shot. He’s been too good on the surface for Dave Sveum to choose anyone else. Strop’s stuff is good enough to succeed in the ninth inning. The problem is he usually puts far too many base runners on for long term success. Strop had a similar run in 2011 when he was dealt by the Rangers to the O’s.

Blake Parker still has a shot to close should Gregg get dealt. The problem is, while Strop has shone since July 1, Parker has been mediocre at best with a 3.86 ERA and a 6/4 K/BB ratio over 9 1/3 innings.

Texas Rangers

Joe Nathan traded? It seems like it’s a possibility, though I think it’s a remote one. Nathan has a club option for $9M for 2014, but the Rangers do have a lot of arms that could fill in for Nathan should they opt to deal Nathan.

Joakim Soria is back after another Tommy John surgery and has been relatively effective in his first appearances. He’s strikeout rate is down a bit (7.9 K/9 this season, 9.7 for his career) and his walk rate is up (4.76 BB/9 this year, career 2.5). Control is usually the last skill to return after surgery so this type of line is to be expected. With an eye on the playoffs, the Rangers would likely go with the veteran first should they deal Nathan.

Tanner Scheppers got into a little trouble this week and he may not been quite as innocent as he sounded initially. That said, Scheppers has settled into a high leverage role for the Rangers. The problem for me is he’s just not been that dominant. A 6.2 K/9 rate is below average and he’s walking more than three batters per nine innings. I don’t think he’ll get a real shot to close if Nathan is dealt because of the next guy on the list.

Neftali Feliz is nearing a return. Remember him? He had 72 saves between 2010 and 2011. Then, he went under the knife and we haven’t seen him since early 2012. He probably won’t be back until the beginning of September, but he could slot into an important role as soon as he was back.

Jason Frasor fits the veteran mold as a 35 year old. He fits the mold of a former closer as he’s got 36 saves over 10 major league seasons. I think Frasor might get a chance before Scheppers should Nathan be dealt and Soria falter.

Alexi Ogando is a hail mary option for the Rangers. Like Feliz he has experience relieving and starting. Ogando is probably too valuable in the rotation, but we’ve seen stranger things occur.

Close Calls

Brad Ziegler looks to be the closer in Arizona for now. The D’backs are only 2.5 games out of first in the NL West, but the Dodgers have the look of a team that is on the rise not the decline. I think the D’backs probably muddle through with Ziegler for now, but J.J. Putz should see some opportunities down the line

Francisco Rodriguez was dealt to the Orioles this week and immediately becomes the handcuff to Jim Johnson who probably has a short leash on currently.

Jim Henderson is back in the closer role for the Brewers. I know that manager Ron Roenicke said he’d split the role between John Axford and Henderson. I don’t see it. There is no reason to move Axford out of his role as he’s been quite successful.

Andrew Bailey is out for the year so Junichi Tazawa moves into the handcuff role and Matt Thornton probably backs Tazawa up.

Jason Grilli may be on the DL for the rest of the season so Mark Melancon has immediate and long term value. Grill’s original prognosis is a 4-8 week recovery time frame. That puts him back no earlier than September 1 and I don’t think the Pirates will push him. They have a deep bullpen to pull from.

Drew Storen was sent to the minors this week. I think we may have seen the last of him in a Nationals uniform. He needs a change of scenery. I wonder if the Yankees would part with Phil Hughes in a deal that includes Storen?

Definitions

2013 Closer – The guy who is  the current closer.
Handcuff Option – This is the guy who I believe will step into the closer role if the current closer loses his job.
Other Option – Another arm in the pen who could close if the manager chooses to go a different route.
Dark Horse Option – If all hell breaks loose in the pen, this guy could get a shot this year.
2014 Closer – This guy should be in the closer’s role on Opening Day 2014.

 

Team

2013 Closer

Handcuff option

Other option

Darkhorse Option

2014 Closer

Arizona

Brad
Ziegler

J.J. Putz

Heath
Bell

David Hernandez

J.J. Putz

Atlanta

Craig Kimbrel

Jordan Walden

Luis Avilan

Anthony Varvaro

Craig Kimbrel

Baltimore

Jim Johnson

Francisco
Rodriguez

Darren O’Day

Brian Matusz

Not on the team

Boston

Koji Uehara

Junichi
Tazawa

Matt
Thornton

Rubby de la Rosa

Andrew Bailey

Chicago (NL)

Kevin Gregg

Pedro
Strop

Blake Parker

James
Russell

Arodys Vizcaino

Chicago (AL)

Addison Reed

Nate Jones

Matt Lindstrom

Hector Santiago

Addison Reed

Cincinnati

Aroldis Chapman

J. J. Hoover

Alfredo Simon

Sean Marshall

Aroldis Chapman

Cleveland

Chris Perez

Joe Smith

Vinnie Pestano

Cody Allen

Chris Perez

Colorado

Rex
Brothers

Wilton
Lopez

Rafael
Betancourt (DL)

Adam Ottavino

Rex Brothers

Detroit

Joaquin Benoit

Jose Veras

Drew Smyly

Jose Valverde

Not on the team

Houston

Wesley Wright

Jose Cisnero

Hector Ambriz

Josh Fields

Jose Veras

Kansas City

Greg Holland

Aaron Crow

Tim Collins

Luke Hochevar

Greg Holland

Los Angeles Angels

Ernesto Frieri

Scott Downs

Kevin Jepsen

Ryan Madson

Ernesto Frieri

Los Angeles Dodgers

Kenley Jansen

Paco Rodriguez

Brandon League

Ronald Belisario

Kenley Jansen

Miami

Steve Cishek

Mike Dunn

Chad Qualls

A. J. Ramos

Steve Cishek

Milwaukee

Jim
Henderson

John Axford

Michael Gonzalez

Brandon Kintzler

Jim Henderson

Minnesota

Glen Perkins

Casey Fien

Jared Burton

Michael Tonkin

Glen Perkins

New York Mets

Bobby Parnell

LaTroy Hawkins

David Aardsma

Jeurys Familia

Bobby Parnell

New York Yankees

Mariano Rivera

David Robertson

Joba Chamberlain

Phil Hughes

David Robertson

Oakland

Grant Balfour

Ryan Cook

Jesse Chavez

Sean Doolittle

Ryan Cook

Philadelphia

Jonathan Papelbon

Antonio Bastardo

Justin De Fratus

Joe Savery

Jonathan Papelbon

Pittsburgh

Mark Melancon

Tony
Watson

Justin
Wilson

Vic Black

Jason Grilli

St. Louis

Edward Mujica

Trevor Rosenthal

Kevin Siegrest

Carlos Martinez

Trevor Rosenthal

San Diego

Huston Street

Luke Gregerson

Dale Thayer

Brad Boxberger

Huston Street

San Francisco

Sergio Romo

Santiago Casilla

Jeremy Affeldt

Jose Mijares

Sergio Romo

Seattle

Tom Wilhelmsen

Oliver Perez

Yoervis Medina

Carter Capps

Tom Wilhelmsen

Tampa Bay

Fernando Rodney

Jake McGee

Joel Peralta

Jamey Wright

Jake McGee

Texas

Joe Nathan

Joakim Soria

Jason Frasor

Neftali Feliz

Joe Nathan

Toronto

Casey Janssen

Steve Delabar

Brett Cecil

Sergio Santos

Casey Janssen

Washington

Rafael Soriano

Tyler Clippard

Fernando Abad

Erik Davis

Rafael Soriano

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