2013 Fantasy Baseball: The Week 18 Closer Report
It’s just a few days until the non-waiver trading deadline in the major leagues. We may see some upheaval in the Chicago bullpen. And there have been rumors that the Rangers are willing to move Joe Nathan in a deal for a hitter. I’ve kept the table for all 30 teams at the end of this piece. You can see any changes from the prior week in red. I’ll try to detail most of the reasons for changes below.
Check out my piece from earlier today on the Jose Veras trade to Detroit.
Chicago Cubs
Kevin Gregg is still the closer and for the Cubs, but there is rampant speculation that he won’t be come Wednesday. The only problem with that theory is Gregg hasn’t been very good for the Cubs lately. Since July 1, Gregg has pitched 12 innings with a 5.25 ERA walking 11 and striking out only six. He does have eight saves, so he’s helped your team there, but I’m not sure what Gregg could bring in a trade. If the Cubs are willing to deal him for a hot meal, he’ll move. If the Cubs decide they want to hang on to him because he’s a proven closer, then he sticks around.
Pedro Strop was acquired from the Orioles earlier this season. Strop had a 7.25 ERA over 22 1/3 innings pitched striking out 24 and walking for the O’s. Since his acquisition, Strop has thrown 9 2/3 innings, striking out 12, walking only three and giving up no runs. Oh, his career walk rate is 5.2/9. The Strop we’ve seen for the Cubs is not the Strop we all know. Strop could be a candidate to close should Gregg get dealt and I think he gets the first shot. He’s been too good on the surface for Dave Sveum to choose anyone else. Strop’s stuff is good enough to succeed in the ninth inning. The problem is he usually puts far too many base runners on for long term success. Strop had a similar run in 2011 when he was dealt by the Rangers to the O’s.
Blake Parker still has a shot to close should Gregg get dealt. The problem is, while Strop has shone since July 1, Parker has been mediocre at best with a 3.86 ERA and a 6/4 K/BB ratio over 9 1/3 innings.
Texas Rangers
Joe Nathan traded? It seems like it’s a possibility, though I think it’s a remote one. Nathan has a club option for $9M for 2014, but the Rangers do have a lot of arms that could fill in for Nathan should they opt to deal Nathan.
Joakim Soria is back after another Tommy John surgery and has been relatively effective in his first appearances. He’s strikeout rate is down a bit (7.9 K/9 this season, 9.7 for his career) and his walk rate is up (4.76 BB/9 this year, career 2.5). Control is usually the last skill to return after surgery so this type of line is to be expected. With an eye on the playoffs, the Rangers would likely go with the veteran first should they deal Nathan.
Tanner Scheppers got into a little trouble this week and he may not been quite as innocent as he sounded initially. That said, Scheppers has settled into a high leverage role for the Rangers. The problem for me is he’s just not been that dominant. A 6.2 K/9 rate is below average and he’s walking more than three batters per nine innings. I don’t think he’ll get a real shot to close if Nathan is dealt because of the next guy on the list.
Neftali Feliz is nearing a return. Remember him? He had 72 saves between 2010 and 2011. Then, he went under the knife and we haven’t seen him since early 2012. He probably won’t be back until the beginning of September, but he could slot into an important role as soon as he was back.
Jason Frasor fits the veteran mold as a 35 year old. He fits the mold of a former closer as he’s got 36 saves over 10 major league seasons. I think Frasor might get a chance before Scheppers should Nathan be dealt and Soria falter.
Alexi Ogando is a hail mary option for the Rangers. Like Feliz he has experience relieving and starting. Ogando is probably too valuable in the rotation, but we’ve seen stranger things occur.
Close Calls
Brad Ziegler looks to be the closer in Arizona for now. The D’backs are only 2.5 games out of first in the NL West, but the Dodgers have the look of a team that is on the rise not the decline. I think the D’backs probably muddle through with Ziegler for now, but J.J. Putz should see some opportunities down the line
Francisco Rodriguez was dealt to the Orioles this week and immediately becomes the handcuff to Jim Johnson who probably has a short leash on currently.
Jim Henderson is back in the closer role for the Brewers. I know that manager Ron Roenicke said he’d split the role between John Axford and Henderson. I don’t see it. There is no reason to move Axford out of his role as he’s been quite successful.
Andrew Bailey is out for the year so Junichi Tazawa moves into the handcuff role and Matt Thornton probably backs Tazawa up.
Jason Grilli may be on the DL for the rest of the season so Mark Melancon has immediate and long term value. Grill’s original prognosis is a 4-8 week recovery time frame. That puts him back no earlier than September 1 and I don’t think the Pirates will push him. They have a deep bullpen to pull from.
Drew Storen was sent to the minors this week. I think we may have seen the last of him in a Nationals uniform. He needs a change of scenery. I wonder if the Yankees would part with Phil Hughes in a deal that includes Storen?
Definitions
2013 Closer – The guy who is the current closer.
Handcuff Option – This is the guy who I believe will step into the closer role if the current closer loses his job.
Other Option – Another arm in the pen who could close if the manager chooses to go a different route.
Dark Horse Option – If all hell breaks loose in the pen, this guy could get a shot this year.
2014 Closer – This guy should be in the closer’s role on Opening Day 2014.
Team |
2013 Closer |
Handcuff option |
Other option |
Darkhorse Option |
2014 Closer |
Arizona |
Brad |
J.J. Putz |
Heath |
David Hernandez |
J.J. Putz |
Atlanta |
Craig Kimbrel |
Jordan Walden |
Luis Avilan |
Anthony Varvaro |
Craig Kimbrel |
Baltimore |
Jim Johnson |
Francisco |
Darren O’Day |
Brian Matusz |
Not on the team |
Boston |
Koji Uehara |
Junichi |
Matt |
Rubby de la Rosa |
Andrew Bailey |
Chicago (NL) |
Kevin Gregg |
Pedro |
Blake Parker |
James |
Arodys Vizcaino |
Chicago (AL) |
Addison Reed |
Nate Jones |
Matt Lindstrom |
Hector Santiago |
Addison Reed |
Cincinnati |
Aroldis Chapman |
J. J. Hoover |
Alfredo Simon |
Sean Marshall |
Aroldis Chapman |
Cleveland |
Chris Perez |
Joe Smith |
Vinnie Pestano |
Cody Allen |
Chris Perez |
Colorado |
Rex |
Wilton |
Rafael |
Adam Ottavino |
Rex Brothers |
Detroit |
Joaquin Benoit |
Jose Veras |
Drew Smyly |
Jose Valverde |
Not on the team |
Houston |
Wesley Wright |
Jose Cisnero |
Hector Ambriz |
Josh Fields |
Jose Veras |
Kansas City |
Greg Holland |
Aaron Crow |
Tim Collins |
Luke Hochevar |
Greg Holland |
Los Angeles Angels |
Ernesto Frieri |
Scott Downs |
Kevin Jepsen |
Ryan Madson |
Ernesto Frieri |
Los Angeles Dodgers |
Kenley Jansen |
Paco Rodriguez |
Brandon League |
Ronald Belisario |
Kenley Jansen |
Miami |
Steve Cishek |
Mike Dunn |
Chad Qualls |
A. J. Ramos |
Steve Cishek |
Milwaukee |
Jim |
John Axford |
Michael Gonzalez |
Brandon Kintzler |
Jim Henderson |
Minnesota |
Glen Perkins |
Casey Fien |
Jared Burton |
Michael Tonkin |
Glen Perkins |
New York Mets |
Bobby Parnell |
LaTroy Hawkins |
David Aardsma |
Jeurys Familia |
Bobby Parnell |
New York Yankees |
Mariano Rivera |
David Robertson |
Joba Chamberlain |
Phil Hughes |
David Robertson |
Oakland |
Grant Balfour |
Ryan Cook |
Jesse Chavez |
Sean Doolittle |
Ryan Cook |
Philadelphia |
Jonathan Papelbon |
Antonio Bastardo |
Justin De Fratus |
Joe Savery |
Jonathan Papelbon |
Pittsburgh |
Mark Melancon |
Tony |
Justin |
Vic Black |
Jason Grilli |
St. Louis |
Edward Mujica |
Trevor Rosenthal |
Kevin Siegrest |
Carlos Martinez |
Trevor Rosenthal |
San Diego |
Huston Street |
Luke Gregerson |
Dale Thayer |
Brad Boxberger |
Huston Street |
San Francisco |
Sergio Romo |
Santiago Casilla |
Jeremy Affeldt |
Jose Mijares |
Sergio Romo |
Seattle |
Tom Wilhelmsen |
Oliver Perez |
Yoervis Medina |
Carter Capps |
Tom Wilhelmsen |
Tampa Bay |
Fernando Rodney |
Jake McGee |
Joel Peralta |
Jamey Wright |
Jake McGee |
Texas |
Joe Nathan |
Joakim Soria |
Jason Frasor |
Neftali Feliz |
Joe Nathan |
Toronto |
Casey Janssen |
Steve Delabar |
Brett Cecil |
Sergio Santos |
Casey Janssen |
Washington |
Rafael Soriano |
Tyler Clippard |
Fernando Abad |
Erik Davis |
Rafael Soriano |