2013 Fantasy Baseball: The Week 15 Closer Report
Bullpens are settling in as we near the All-Star break. We’ll run through some of the major issues this week and some quick notes at the end as usual. I’ll try to put a trade preview piece together for next week’s column unless we see some major movement.
Arizona Diamondbacks
J.J. Putz was back and then he wasn’t. He was pulled from his role as closer to build arm strength (isn’t that what the rehab stint was for?). Putz is still the closer when he’s deemed healthy, but it’s unclear when that will be.
Heath Bell is back in the role and still giving up home runs. In his last five save opportunities, he’s saved three, blown two and given up three home runs. His ERA is back over 4.50 (FIP 4.93, xFIP 3.29) for the season. He’s shown he’s not going to be the elite closer he was and more and more it’s looking like he may not even be a mildly effective pitcher going forward. He’s the pitcher to own for now because there really isn’t anyone else in the pen.
David Hernandez has an equally fantastic 4.70 ERA (FIP 4.55, xFIP 4.09) on the season. In the middle of June, he went five appearances without giving up a run, but since then he’s give up runs in three of four appearances (six runs over 3 1/3 IP). He can’t be trusted to close should the need arise.
Brad Ziegler has been perhaps the most effective reliever for Arizona all season long with a 2.68 ERA (FIP 3.61, xFIP 3.28), but doesn’t have the strikeout stuff that most ninth inning guys have (5.13 K/9 for 2013, 5.83 for his career; 14.4 K% in 2013, 16.0% for his career). He has some closing experience from his time at Oakland, but I don’t see manager Kirk Gibson turning to him.
Will Harris has the stuff (10.98 K/9 this year to go along with a 49% ground ball rate), but he’s short on major league experience. His 2012 was forgettable on the surface (8.15 ERA), but he wasn’t quite that bad (4.34 ERA, 4.32 xFIP). However, he doesn’t have enough of a track record to be trusted at the end of games.
Josh Collmenter has been told he could see more late inning work in the future. However, I think he may be too valuable as a long man in the bullpen to be moved. Should he get a chance, Collmenter could succeed. His stuff has played up out of the bullpen (6/3 K/9 as a starter, 8.5 as a reliever over his career).
Chaz Roe has been great as a reliever in the minors putting up huge K/9 rates over the last two seasons (12.7 in 2013 and 11.3 in 2012). He’d be a desperation play in the pen – though he does lead AAA Reno in saves with…four.
Matt Reynolds had been quite effective until landing on the DL with a strained UCL. He won’t need surgery, but he likely won’t be a factor for the D’backs this season.
St. Louis Cardinals
Edward Mujica finally blew a save for the Cardinals this week. He had been perfect on the season in his first 21 opportunities. He got back on the horse and closed out the Cards win on Friday night. I don’t thin there is much to worry about here. Mujica has been a bit lucky (85.7% LOB%, 2.62 ERA with a 3.39 FIP and 3.22 xFIP, along with maintaining a microscopic walk % of 1.5%). However, I don’t see his luck running out. Dave Cameron had a wonderful write-up on Mujica’s similarity with Mariano Rivera. It’s worth the read.
Trevor Rosenthal is really the only player to consider as a handcuff. In shallower, redraft leagues, he’s likely available, but he’s probably gone in most deep leagues and all keeper/dynasty leagues. Rosenthal has been spectacular (34.8 K%, 13.28 K/9, 2.03 ERA, 1.99 FIP, 2.14 xFIP) all season long. He’s likely going to make his long term future in the rotation, but he’s got everything you’d want out of a closer. Either way, he’s a great dynasty/keeper player with a chance to have some value as a closer this season should Mujica falter.
Baltimore Orioles
Jim Johnson now leads the American League in blown saves with six after fumbling and walking his way to another loss in Friday night’s game against the Orioles. He’s blown twice as many saves in the first half of 2013 as he did in all of 2012. He’s never had prototypical closer’s stuff, but he was successful last season. In looking over his numbers this season, nothing jumps out to say Johnson is better or worse than what he’s shown this year. This is probably Jim Johnson. Will the Orioles live with this Johnson? Perhaps, but what options do they have in house?
Tommy Hunter is my choice to take over for Johnson should Buck Showalter deem him in need of a break from the pressures of closing. He picked up a two inning save while Johnson was on a break earlier in the season and has been good out of the pen
Darren O’Day has been stuff and the only reason I’m recommending Hunter over O’Day is because of Hunter’s save earlier in the season. Moreover, O’Day’s FIP and xFIP are over 1.5 runs higher than his ERA so he is due for some regression (and certainly more than Hunter). If looking at FIP and xFIP, O’Day and Hunter are basically the same pitcher.
I could certainly see O’Day as the closer if Johnson needs to sit. It’s a flip of a coin for me between the two with the lean to Hunter. There is no information out of the O’s organization of a change, so this needs to be monitored over the weekend.
Pedro Strop is no longer with the club after being dealt to the Chicago Cubs. Much to the joy of most O’s fans.
And don’t forget them when it comes to the trade deadline – they’ve already started up their dealing with a trade this week. They could be in the market for a ninth inning guy.
Close Calls
Tom Wilhelmsen looks to be back in the saddle (clean one inning save on Wednesday) even if he’s sharing that saddle with Oliver Perez (three strikeout performance for a save on Friday night with Wilhelmsen warming in the pen in case Perez faltered). I can see Seattle continuing to have Wilhelmsen in the lead role with Perez getting opportunities when tough lefties are up (Perez stayed in Friday after facing Jay Bruce as the first hitter of the ninth.
Blake Parker didn’t make it into my report last week and that’s my mistake. Parker looks like he could be in the mix should (when?) Kevin Gregg gets dealt. Parker has some closing experience in the minors and has a great strikeout rate (9.7 K/9 for his career and also at AAA), but has struggled with his control such that I don’t believe he could be successful in the closer’s role. And I don’t see Pedro Strop as any threat there – he’s a mess this season.
Francisco Rodriguez is the closer in Milwaukee until further notice. Jim Henderson hasn’t gotten back on track since his return from the DL. I still think K-Rod gets dealt (Baltimore?) before the deadline and Henderson reclaims his role.
Luke Hochevar might be moving into handcuff territory with Greg Holland.
Take a few minutes and read this great Jay Jaffe piece on Larry Doby.