Daily Fantasy Golf Strategy: AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am
We are back this week for another look at Daily Fantasy PGA at DraftKings. Hideki Matsuyama didn’t help my cause last week as he hurt me in many of my lineups. And my desperation heave of Bill Lunde flopped. Overall it was an OK weekend, but we need to do better. Let’s see if I can help you out this week.
We remain in California this week for the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am. We get to see three courses, enjoy a Saturday night cut and bask in the stunning views.
It’s a great week to check out DraftKings as they have some top notch contests. Come on over and take a look.
Tour Stop
We have another multi-course event this week for the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am. The first three rounds are played on three courses. The best known course is the Pebble Beach Golf Links course which plays at 6,816 yards and is a par 72. The other two courses are Spyglass Hill, a par-72, 6,953 yards course and the Monterey Peninsula Country Club Shore Course, a par- 71, 6,867 yards course just along the ocean.
The cut is made after three rounds and then the final round is played on Pebble Beach. With a cut after three rounds, you can take a few more risks this week as you are guaranteed three rounds from all golfers.
Field
We will have only nine of the top 25 world rankings this week– pretty weak field. However, Ernie Els returns to the tour as does Jim Furyk and we get another Pro-Am!
The full field can be found here.
Also, thanks to GolfOdds.com for the odds this week. If you’d like to see a second set of odds, check out the Betting Zone’s odds here – just click on this week’s tournament on the left hand pane.
Past Tournament Results
2014 Winner: Jimmy Walker hung on to win last year after firing a final round 74 to win by a stroke. He is back to defend his title this week.
Here is the top 20 from last year’s tournament
DraftKings Expert Picks
Daniel Berger | $6,500 – Berger’s first trip here, but he’s put up more than 80 points on DraftKings in three of his last four starts. The rookie has played tough courses well in the early going. And he’s got one Pro-Am under his belt so hopefully he’s a bit more comfortable with the format.
Jason Bohn | $5,000 – Bohn has been solid if unspectacular in the early part of the season. He’s made six of seven cuts. He’s played here nine times, made the cut five, but never finished in the top 10. He’s played Pebble the last three years and gone CUT, tie for 40th and CUT so not so stellar a record. The ray of hope is that he did perform well at the Humana (a similar Pro-Am setup) just a few weeks ago.
Chad Collins | $6,000 – Collins hasn’t made the cut here in his three attempts. He was 11 over through three rounds last year and struggled to drive the ball accurately. He didn’t show a lot last year at all as he made only 11 of 28 cuts. However, he’s shown solid form so far this season as he’s made five of six cuts (and five in a row). His worst finish so far is a tie for 30th at the Sony. It’s all about form with this choice and hoping it continues for another week.
Ernie Els | $7,500 – Els hasn’t missed a cut since the Open Championship in July 2014. He’s played four times in 2015 with his worst finish coming in his last time out in Dubai with a tie for 55th. He’s never played this event, but he’s got the tools to get around any course. Oh, he did finish solo third at the U.S Open at Pebble in 2010.
Jim Furyk | $9,500 – 35, 30, 40, CUT, 35, 33. Those are Furyk’s last six years at Pebble Beach. He won’t win this week (his first appearance since the Ryder Cup) where he doesn’t have a top 10 finish since 2007. He’ll probably struggle to be relevant when making the cut isn’t quite as valuable this week as in other weeks.
Jason Gore | $4,000 – Gore won the California State Amateur Championship at Pebble in 1997. His record here is poor, but if you want to be on a unicorn, he’s one.
Mark Hubbard | $4,300 – Speaking of unicorns, this PGA Tour rookie has made seven of eight cuts in his inaugural season on tour. His best finish was a tie for 20th at the Humana, but he’s shown enough to get to the weekend regularly so far. He played his college golf at San Jose St so he’s seen the West Coast courses a bit in his time.
Dustin Johnson | $12,400 – Johnson missed the cut last week after firing a 74-70. I’m going to get back on the horse as he’ll get to play with future father-in-law Wayne Gretzky this week which should provide some level of comfort and familiarity for DJ. He’s played here seven times with five top 10 finishes including back to back wins in 2009 and 2010.
Colt Knost | $6,300 – He came through again last week with another top 20 finish – his third in a row. He’s played here four times and hasn’t made the cut, but this is the new Colt Knost! He’s in form and continues to be a bargain.
Spencer Levin | $7,500 – Levin won the 2004 California State Amateur Championship on the Pebble Course. Sure, that was a long time ago, but he’s continued to perform well here with four top 10 finishes in his five starts missing the cut last year.
Shane Lowry ($8,200) and Ian Poulter ($8,300) – The Europeans have a Pro-Am called the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship with a similar format to Pebble Beach. Both have had some success there and both are coming off solid showings last week. Either can fit in nicely to a balanced lineup and should be there for Sunday’s run to the trophy. Ernie Els, mentioned above, has done even better than these two gents.
If you want to dig deeper on the Dunhill Links link (get it?), Padraig Harrington ($5,600) and Paul McGinley ($3,100) have also played Dunhill. Paddy has won the event twice (with nine top 25s in 14 starts) and McGinley has made the cut nine times in 14 appearances.
Hunter Mahan | $10,100 – Mahan’s wife gave birth to their second child last week so Mahan is back on tour without the concern over the pending birth of a child. I assume he’s well rested (HA!) for his trip to Pebble Beach. He’s made the cut in nine of his 11 trips here and has two top 10 finishes including last year. He hasn’t missed a cut here since 2008.
John Merrick | $4,500 – Merrick is another native Californian (born in Long Beach, attended UCLA and still lives in Long Beach) who has had some success here as he hasn’t missed a cut in his three trips here. He picked up a tie for 16 th in his last shot at Pebble (2013). He hasn’t shown much yet in 2015, but in the Humana (also a Sunday cut tourney) he put up six under in three days good enough for 63 points on DraftKings.
Bryce Molder $6,700 – Molder has three top 15 finishes in his last four trips around Pebble Beach including a tie for tenth last year. Molder didn’t look great last week missing the cut at 3-over through two rounds. He hasn’t shown a ton yet this year, so you are banking on his history.
Kevin Na | $8,300 – Na is six for eight in cuts at Pebble Beach with two top 10s including his tie for fourth last year. He had another top 10 in 2012. Na hasn’t missed a cut yet this season and played his youth golf in California so he’s familiar with these greens.
Ryan Palmer | $10,000 – Palmer took last week off, but prior to the break he was tearing the PGA up with three straight top 20 finishes in the Sony, Humana and Phoenix Opens. He’s made six of nine cuts here, but doesn’t have a top 10. This is the year he chalks one up.
Pat Perez | $6,900 – Perez’s history here is solid with 10 cuts made in 12 appearances and two top 10s (including last year). However, I’m a bit concerned after Perez made the cut last week and then provided his best impersonation of Tiger Woods on the weekend going 77-83 to finish the tourney at 12 over and in dead last of those who made the cut. I’d shy away from him this week.
Alex Prugh | $6,600 – Prugh is coming off a tie for fifth at Torrey Pines and looked solid in doing it. He missed the cut here last year, but had back to back top 30 finishes in his only two other appearances at Pebble in 2010 and 2011.
Patrick Reed | $12,100 – Reed has only played here twice, but he’s been in the top 15 both times including a tie for 13th in last year’s event. He has a win in the early going this season and hasn’t missed a cut yet in five events.
Jordan Spieth | $13,200 – Spieth has played here twice and has been in the top 25 both times. He picked up a top 5 last year. Unfortunately, he missed the cut last week so he’s not off to a great start for this part of the California swing. Perhaps he’s well rested!
Jason Day ($17,700) and Jimmy Walker ($17,400) – At about 35% (or roughly twice the average player) of your cap, both Day and Walker are cap-busting options. Day is playing just about as well as any golfer outside of Rory McIlroy. Day struggled here last year (tie for 64 th), but has two top 10s in his other four starts and hasn’t missed a cut. Walker won here last year and has four straight top 10 finishes including that win so he’s clearly got this tourney figured out.
It sure is lonely at the top.
Michael Weaver | $3,200 – Want a real long shot? The 23-year old amateur is a California native (born in Fresno and played his college golf at Cal-Berkley) who was granted a sponsor’s exemption into the tourney. Oh, he made the cut at the U.S. Open in 2013 (finishing a distant 64th). You’re going to get three rounds out of him and his fellow Cal Bear Brandon Hagy ($4,000 for this tournament) put together 65.5 points at the Humana three weeks ago.
Charlie Wi | $5,200 – Wi won the amateur in 1990. Relevant? Likely not. He also owns the course record on the Peninsula Course with a 61 in 2012’s first round. Relevant? Eh, likely not. He missed the cut here in 2014 (by blowing up on Saturday with an 80 on Pebble Beach), but was in the top 20 in back to back years prior to that miss. He’s cheap and could put up enough points in three rounds to be well worth it.
Good luck this week! Head over to DraftKings to choose your squad for this week.
DraftKings Scoring
Roster size: 6 Golfers
POINT SCORING
Golfers on each team will accumulate points as follows:
- Per Hole Scoring
- Double Eagle (DBL EAG): +20 PTs
- Eagle (EAG): +8 PTs
- Birdie (BIR): +3 PTs
- Par (PAR): +0.5 PTs
- Bogey (BOG): -0.5 PTs
- Double Bogey (DBL BOG): -1 PT
- Worse than Double Bogey (WORSE DBL BOG): -1 PT
- Tournament Finish Scoring
- 1st: 30 PTs
- 2nd: 20 PTs
- 3rd: 18 PTs
- 4th: 16 PTs
- 5th: 14 PTs
- 6th: 12 PTs
- 7th: 10 PTs
- 8th: 9 PTs
- 9th: 8 PTs
- 10th: 7 PTs
- 11th–15th: 6 PTs
- 16th–20th: 5 PTs
- 21st–25th: 4 PTs
- 26th–30th: 3 PTs
- 31st–40th: 2 PTs
- 41st-50th: 1 PTs
- Streaks and Bonuses
- Streak of 3 Birdies of Better (MAX 1 Per Round) (3+ BIR STRK): +3 PTs
- Bogey Free Round (BOG FREE RD): +3 PTs
- All 4 Rounds Under 70 Strokes (ALL 4 RDS UND 70): +5 PTs
- Hole in One (HOLE IN ONE): +10 PTs
Scoring Notes: Ties for a finishing position will not reduce or average down points. For example, if 2 golfers tie for 3rd place, each will receive the 18 fantasy points for the 3rd place finish result. Playoff Holes will not count towards final scoring, with the exception of the “finishing position” scoring. For example, the golfer who wins the tournament will receive the sole award of 1st place points, but will not accrue points for their scoring result in the individual playoff holes.
Player Lock Notes: All golfers lock at the time the first golfer tees off on day 1 of an event.
Full rules are located here for DraftKings golf.