We took a week off, but we are back for the BMW Championship – the penultimate tournament on the PGA Tour schedule. And it’s time for another edition of The Fantasy Fix’s Daily Fantasy golf column. We head to Conway Farms in Lake Forest, Illinois for the BMW Championship. And DraftKings is back with some top notch contests. Come on over and take a look.

It’s a great week to check out DraftKings as they have some top notch contests. Come on over and take a look.

Tour Stop

This week we enter the third week of FedEx playoffs. We are now down to 70 eligible players as we continue to whittle the field down to the final 30 who will compete for the top prize.

The tour stop this week is Conway Farms Golf Club in Lake Forest, IL about 45 minutes north of Chicago for the BMW Championship. Feel free to check out all 18 holes of this 7,198 yard, par 71 course designed by Tom Fazio.

This is the second par 71 course in a row after a dearth of them during the regular season.

It looks like wind could be an issue Thursday and part of Friday with only a small chance of rain during the four days. Check back Wednesday to see how the weather finally ends up and to see if one draw is more favorable than the other.

Scorecard breakdown: Four (4) par threes, eleven (11) par fours and three (3) par fives.

Field

The field is set at 70 golfers and all 70 will see the weekend as there is no cut. The top 30 in FedEx Cup points at the end of the tournament will head on to next week’s PGA Championship.

The full field can be found here. The scenarios for the next week are also here.

Thanks to GolfOdds.com for the odds this week. If you’d like to see a second set of odds, check out the Betting Zone’s odds here – just click on this week’s tournament on the left hand pane.

Past Tournament Results

The BMW switches venues each year, but the 2013 tournament was held at Conway Farms, so those results are useful. Conway Farms also held four amateur tournaments – the 1997 NCAA Division I championship, 1998 U.S. Junior Amateur, the 2009 Western Amateur and 2010 U.S. Mid-Amateur. I’ve decided not to use any results from these tourneys as they were either too old or contained non-PGA type players.

INSERT IMAGE

Statistical Review

In taking a look at the results from 2013, we see a 59 from Jim Furyk in the second round, contenders hitting greens and scoring everywhere. If you can’t score on par 5s, then just crush par 4s. Maybe you struggle on par 3s? No problem – just scorch par 5s. Nick Watney led the tourney with 24 birdies and Zach Johnson won the tournament with a four round total of 16-under.

This week, I’ll focus on:

Birdie or Better Percentage: You can win by scoring just about anywhere. So, we’ll look at the overall percent of times a player scores a birdie or better across all holes.

Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (SG:T2G): The best players will rise to the top and we’ll use this stat to determine the best players on Tour currently for yet another week.

Greens in Regulation (GIR): In looking at the results from 2013, the players near the top of the leaderboard are also near the top of GIRs for the week.

I also always examine Strokes Gained: Putting and Strokes Gained: Tee to Green every week with SG: T2G being more important and more predictable from week to week.

DraftKings Expert Picks

Jason Day | $12,600 – The pricing is tough this week, so you’ll need to do some work to get Day into your lineup. He’s first in Birdie or Better: Percentage, seventh in SG:T2G and eighth in GIR which makes him quite useful this week. He finished T4 in 2013 at Conway Farms and he’s won three times in his last seven tournaments. He’s the most expensive golfer for a reason this week and he’s worth every penny.

Rory McIlroy | $12,100 – If I’m going to spend big this week, I want a certain level of certainity. And McIlroy’s ankle doesn’t give me that certainty. He won this tourney in 2012 and was T8 last year, but don’t be fooled. Those tourneys weren’t at Conway Farms. When he played Conway Farms, he finished T59.

Jordan Spieth | $11,600 – I’m unsure of the mental state of his game. It concerns me that he felt the need to swap his irons out a few weeks ago and then go back to his original irons. His profile fits (where doesn’t it?), but his current form has me off him this week.

Henrik Stenson | $11,400 – So, Stenson is pretty good, eh? He’s13th in Birdie or Better: Percentage, second in SG:T2G and first in GIR). He’s on a nice little run with three second place finishes in his last six tournaments. And he’s got two of those in his last two starts. He was T33 at the 2013 BMW so it’s time to see him move up into the top five.

Rickie Fowler | $10,700 – Fowler won last week so could it be the start of something? Could be. He actually has two wins and a second in his last seven tournaments. He was T39 at the 2013 BMW which isn’t great, but when he’s on, it’s tough to beat Rickie.

Dustin Johnson | $10,400 – Johnson’s profile is just about the same as Matt Kuchar’s and DJ costs $1,200 more. So, I’m not sure there is a reason to go any further. He’s made six straight cuts and has three top 10s in there. But, he also finished T62 at the 2013 BMW Championship. I’ll likely be light on DJ this week.

Bubba Watson | $10,200 – Watson’s profile works nicely for this week. He’s third in Birdie or Better: Percentage, first in SG:T2G and 22nd in GIR. He finished T24 at the 2013 BMW so he liked what he saw two years ago. He’s playing well with three top three finishes in his last five tournaments.

Jim Furyk | $10,000 – Furyk’s home course is a Fazio design. He’s on a heater right now on Tour as he’s made eight straight cuts with four top five finishes during that run. He finished T4 two weeks ago at TPC Boston. He finished in third by himself in 2013 at Conway Farms. There aren’t many golfers I like more than Furyk this week (and I didn’t even have to mention his 59 in 2013 in this tournament…oops!)

Justin Rose | $9,800 – I have a feeling Rose will be low-owned in this neighborhood as many will spend the $200 more for Furyk or drop down $300 for Zach Johnson. And that’s why he makes an attractive GPP option. He had a run of five straight cuts with four top six finishes in there prior to his failure two weeks ago. His profile fits as he’s fifth in Birdie or Better: Percentage, eighth in SG:T2G and ninth in GIR.

Zach Johnson | $9,500 – Johnson won the last time the BMW was held at Conway Farms so there will likely be a lot of gamers on him this week. His profile is pretty good as he’s 29th in Birdie or Better: Percentage, 14th in SG:T2G and 35th in GIR. He put up a respectable T22 at the Deutsche Bank two weeks ago. He’s also played well at the John Deere Classic (five top three finishes including a win in his last six starts).

Matt Kuchar | $9,200 – Kuchar sat just outside the top 20 at the 2013 BMW Championship as he settled for a T24. He’s playing quite well right now with 10 straight cuts made including four top 10s. He’s 27th in Birdie or Better: Percentage, 19th in SG:T2G and 78th in GIR which should work this week.

Hideki Matsuyama | $8,900 – I’ve faded Hideki a bit lately and it seems I was wrong to do so. He’s made the cut at the first two FedEx stops – both top 25 finishes. He’s 10th in Birdie or Better: Percentage, sixth in SG:T2G and 24th in GIR. He didn’t tee it up at the BMW in 2013 though he was T20 last year in his only trip to the tourney. I like him to put up a top 15 finish this week.

Patrick Reed | $8,700 – Good Patrick or Bad Patrick. Who will show up this week? He finished in fourth place two weeks ago, but was T62 the week before. The profile works (16th in Birdie or Better: Percentage and 37th in SG:T2G) until it doesn’t (143rd in GIR). As usual, he’s a GPP option – a high volatility golfer who could lead you to the top or sink your chances. In a no cut event like this I like him a bit more than normal as you’ll bet four rounds out of him.

Sergio Garcia | $8,600 – Will contend. Won’t win. Just put that logo on his bag. He’s always played this tournament well (no finish outside of the top 25 in seven trips) and was T18 when Conway Farms hosted in 2013. So, a top 20 is probably in the cards, a win probably isn’t.

Louis Oosthuizen | $8,400 – Oosty is injured more frequently than not, but he’s had two weeks off since his T12 at the Deutsche Bank so he should be healthy. He finished T11 in 2013 here, so he likes the course so we’ll run with him this week.

Brooks Koepka | $8,200 – Koepka has missed the cut in each of the first two playoff events. However, we should not forget he had a run of 11 straight cuts (including five top 10 finishes) prior to the playoffs. His profile seems to fit as he’s eighth in Birdie or Better: Percentage, 28th in SG:T2G, and 11th in GIR.

Charley Hoffman | $8100 – Hoffman fancies himself an excellent wind player and that could come in mighty handy this week. His profile is solid (20th in Birdie or Better: Percentage, 55th in SG:T2G, and 96th in GIR). He’s in off a solo third place finish at the Deutsche Bank though he was 68th in his trip to Conway Farms in 2013.

Kevin Kisner | $8,100 – Kisner makes his debut here and he’s put up back to back top 20 finishes in the first two tournaments of the FedEx Cup. His profile is OK as he’s 112th in Birdie or Better, 43rd in SG:T2G and 82nd in GIR.

Hunter Mahan | $8,000 – I can write about stats or form or course history, but none of it really seems to matter. He plays well in the playoffs. That’s it. I don’t know why, but he does. So, take him if you believe in his voodoo magic. I’ll certainly have him in a few lineups.

Robert Streb | $8,000 – Streb shows up on the best golfers each week based on stats. And this week is no different. He’s 31st in Birdie or Better: Percentage, 24th in SG:T2G, and 17th in GIR. He hasn’t missed a cut since April of this year. Ride with confidence.

Matt Jones | $7,900 – The Aussie (and just about every other Aussie) is a fantastic wind player which may come in handy on Thursday. Jones has the added bonus of finishing fourth last week at the Deutsche Bank and T8 at the 2013 BMW Championship at Conway Farms. His profile is OK (not great) as he’s 18th in Birdie or Better: Percentage, 71st in SG:T2G and 154th in GIR.

Brandt Snedeker | $7,900 – No thanks. His playoff form is off with a missed cut and T44. His profile isn’t the best so don’t be fooled by the name.

Phil Mickelson | $7,800 – Phil was T33 at the BMW in 2013. His form ain’t great with three finishes of 50th place or worse.

Paul Casey | $7,800 – Casey withdrew two weeks ago with a back issue, but the time off should have helped him rehabilitate. His profile looks great as he’s 44th in Birdie or Better: Percentage, 11th in SG:T2G and fifth in GIR. He has no experience at Conway Farms but that shouldn’t hurt him.

Keegan Bradley | $7,800 – Keegan finished T16 in the 2013 version of the BMW here at Conway Farms. He finished T25 at the Deutsche Bank two weeks ago. And he certainly profiles well as he is 46th in Birdie or Better, 15th in SG:T2G, and 70th in GIR. A pretty tidy data set for this week.

Danny Lee | $7,700 – The scorching hot form that we had at the end of the summer with Lee has been dropped to a simmer. Pass.

Webb Simpson | $7,600 – Simpson was T24 at the 2013 edition and profiles well here. He’s 61st in Birdie or Better: Percentage, fifth in GIR and 52nd in GIR. Another sneaky option this week.

Tony Finau | $7600 – Finau broke my heart two weeks ago but I can’t quit him. He’s ready to dominate again. He’d made four cuts in a row prior to missing at the Deutsche Bank including three top 25s. His profile is great as he’s ninth in Birdie or Better: Percentage, 33rd in SG:T2G, and 49th in GIR.

Justin Thomas | $7,600 – Thomas’ profile draws me to him this week. He’s seventh in Birdie or Better: Percentage, 20th in SG:T2G and 36th in GIR. He’s made six straight cuts on Tour with four top 20s though he was T56 two weeks ago at TPC Boston. It’s a bit of risk taking a rookie, but he did put up a T5 at the John Deere (also a par 71 course in Illinois) so he’s shown earlier in the year he can play on a similar course.

J.B. Holmes | $7,500 – Holmes profiles very similarly to Patrick Reed (good scorer and solid from tee to green, but can find the green with a compass) and he’s much cheaper. He didn’t play here in 2013 so we don’t really have anything to go on for the course. He’s been in average form coming in.

Billy Horschel | $7,500 – Billy Ho is like Hunter Mahan. He always seems to play well at this time of year. And he finished T18 in the 2013 BMW so I like him as an under the radar play this week.

Kevin Chappell | $7,500 – Two top 25 finishes to start off the playoffs as Chappell makes his debut here. He doesn’t have the best profile here though he is 51st in Birdie or Better. You’d have to trust that his form keeps up this week.

Russell Henley | $7,500 – I have nothing to recommend about Henley as he finished 72nd at the Barclays and missed the cut two weeks ago. Current form is pretty important this time of year (especially without much course history to go on) and Henley just isn’t playing well right now.

Bill Haas | $7,400- Haas finished T28 in this 2013 trip to Conway Farms. Of his last four cuts made on Tour he has three finishes at T53 or worse. He rates just above Harris English when reviewing statistics. So, he has some stuff to work with, just don’t expect him to sit on the leaderboard week into the weekend.

Jimmy Walker | $7,400 – His form is all over the place. No thanks.

Daniel Summerhays | $7,400 – Summerhays is in off back to back top 10 finishes in the first two tournaments of the FedEx playoffs. He finished T28 in the 2013 edition of the BMW. So, he’s got current form and historical success (as limited as it is). His profile doesn’t really fit outside of this 63rd spot in Birdie or Better: Percentage, but the form is tough to pass up.

Ryan Moore | $7,400 – Moore finished T11 at the 2013 edition of the BMW. He’s also had success at another Illinois course that plays to a par-71 – the TPC at Deere Run for the John Deere Classic. He’s put up three straight top 25 finishes. He’s missed the first two cuts for the FedEx Cup so it’s likely nobody will be on him.

Gary Woodland | $7,400 – I was surprised to see that Woodland finished a respectable 18th at the 2013 BMW. He’s actually done quite well at the BMW overall with three top 25s in his three trips.

Brendan Steele | $7,400 – Steele’s profile fits the course this week as he’s 16th in Birdie or Better: Percentage and SG_T2G, and 27th in GIR. He finished 61st in the 2013 BMW so you’re trusting his profile this week if you roster him as his current form isn’t anything to write home about either.

Russell Knox | $7,400 – Knox is playing well with top 20 finishes in the first two legs of the FedEx playoffs. He’s 81st in Birdie or Better: Percentage, 23rd in SG:T2G and sixth in GIR. He offers good value closer to the bottom of the pool.

Harris English | $7,400 – English did play here in 2013 and finished 50th. He’s made 11 straight cuts on Tour. He finished T12 at the Deutsche Bank two weeks ago which is the best finish in those 11 tournaments. Another solid value play down here.

Rory Sabbatini | $7,300 – Sabbs? Sabes? Sabby? Eh, whatever we call him he looks like a solid option this week. He was finished T11 in 2013 at the BMW here. He’s been in the top 25 in each of the first two FedEx Cup tourneys. His profile also works as he’s 25th in Birdie or Better: Percentage, 31st in SG:T2G and 42nd in GIR. Hmmmm….I like him a lot this week.

Chris Kirk | $7,300 – One of these days Kirk will be all the way back. I’ m not sure it’s this week even with his T29 two weeks ago. His profile works, but he’s high risk. Only a GPP option for me.

David Lingmerth | $7,300 – The thrill is gone. Back to back missed cuts just are too much to get over from a player like Lingmerth.

Ian Poulter | $7200 – Nope. Form is all over the place. Just don’t have any confidence in him.

Jason Bohn | $7,200 – Bohn’s profile seems to work at just about every course. And this week is no different as he’s 21st in Birdie or Better: Percentage, 42nd in SG:T2G and 26th in GIR. He missed the cut two weeks ago, but was T9 at the Barclays and had made five cuts in a row prior to the miss at the Deutsche Bank. He’s never had any success at this tournament and did not play in 2013. But, he’s have a fantastic season so he’s a solid option with the profile he sports.

Jerry Kelly | $7,000 – Kelly didn’t tee it up at the 2013 version of the BMW played at Conway Farms, but he has had some success at the John Deere Classic which is also played in Illinois on a course that has some similarities to Conway Farms. Kelly’s alternated made and missed cuts over his last six tournaments. In the three tourneys he’s made the cut, he was in top 20. He was also T9 two weeks ago at the Deutsche Bank. He is 51st in Birdie or Better: Percentage, 82nd in SG:T2G, and 106th in GIR.

Nick Watney | $7,000 – I’m a sucker for Watney whenever there is something I can hang my hat on. And his second place finish in 2013 at Conway Farms gets me started. He’s 59th in Birdie or Better: Percentage, 38th in SG:T2G and 74th in GIR which should work here.

William McGirt | $7,000 – He’s 129th in Birdie or Better: Percentage, 47th in SG:T2G and 56th in GIR so he does have some elements to work with. But, he’s a bit more expensive than I’d like him to be so I’m going to pass this week.

Shawn Stefani | $6,900 – Great statistical profile. Putrid current form. Pass.

Brendon de Jonge | $6,800 – de Jonge finished T18 in the 2013 BMW Championship. He’s also put up some good results at the John Deere (three top 20s including back to back T7s). He finished in a tie for 22 nd at the Deutsche Bank two week ago. He started strongly with back to back sub-70 rounds only to go with back to back 73s on the weekend.

Daniel Berger | $6,800 – I dared you last weekend and if you took me up on the dare, you were rewarded handsomely. He finished T12 at the TPC of Boston thus making a fool out of many of us. Is Berger back? Well, he profiles nicely as he’s 51st in Birdie or Better: Percentage, 40th in SG:T2G and 37th in GIR.

Zac Blair | $6,800 – Blair is a better bet when the course is short. It’s short this week and Blair did put up a T4 at the Barclays to kick off the FedEx Cup playoffs.

DraftKings Scoring

Roster size: 6 Golfers

POINT SCORING

Golfers on each team will accumulate points as follows:

• Per Hole Scoring
  • Double Eagle (DBL EAG): +20 PTs
  • Eagle (EAG): +8 PTs
  • Birdie (BIR): +3 PTs
  • Par (PAR): +0.5 PTs
  • Bogey (BOG): -0.5 PTs
  • Double Bogey (DBL BOG): -1 PT
  • Worse than Double Bogey (WORSE DBL BOG): -1 PT
• Tournament Finish Scoring
  • 1st: 30 PTs
  • 2nd: 20 PTs
  • 3rd: 18 PTs
  • 4th: 16 PTs
  • 5th: 14 PTs
  • 6th: 12 PTs
  • 7th: 10 PTs
  • 8th: 9 PTs
  • 9th: 8 PTs
  • 10th: 7 PTs
  • 11th–15th: 6 PTs
  • 16th–20th: 5 PTs
  • 21st–25th: 4 PTs
  • 26th–30th: 3 PTs
  • 31st–40th: 2 PTs
  • 41st-50th: 1 PTs
• Streaks and Bonuses
  • Streak of 3 Birdies of Better (MAX 1 Per Round) (3+ BIR STRK): +3 PTs
  • Bogey Free Round (BOG FREE RD): +3 PTs
  • All 4 Rounds Under 70 Strokes (ALL 4 RDS UND 70): +5 PTs
  • Hole in One (HOLE IN ONE): +10 PTs

Scoring Notes: Ties for a finishing position will not reduce or average down points. For example, if 2 golfers tie for 3rd place, each will receive the 18 fantasy points for the 3rd place finish result. Playoff Holes will not count towards final scoring, with the exception of the “finishing position” scoring. For example, the golfer who wins the tournament will receive the sole award of 1st place points, but will not accrue points for their scoring result in the individual playoff holes.

Player Lock Notes: All golfers lock at the time the first golfer tees off on day 1 of an event.

Full rules are located here for DraftKings golf.