2015 Fantasy GolfChris Garosi

Daily Fantasy Golf Strategy: CareerBuilder Challenge

Matt Kuchar saved my weekend by birdieing 18 on Friday to make the cut by one. Hopefully, you weren’t in need of the Kuch to save your weekend.

We are off to the mainland this week for the CareerBuilder Challenge in partnership with the Clinton Foundation in La Quinta, CA. And that’s the last time you’ll see me write the full tournament name out. Our friends at DraftKings continue to roll out some fantastic contests. And I’m here to help you win some dough.

It’s a great week to check out DraftKings as they have some top notch contests. And it’s a great way to try out DraftKings’ PGA games as every player makes the cut this week. You don’t have to sweat the cut line.

Come on over and take a look.

Tour Stop

We’ve picked up a new sponsor as Humana has been replaced by CareerBuilder. The former Bob Hope Classic (and former Humana Challenge) is a pro-am event that utilizes three different courses over the first three days of the tournament. Each of the 156 pros will play with a different amateur partner each day on different courses for three days. On Sunday, the low 70 professionals and ties will play the final round of the 72-hole tournament at the TPC Stadium Course.

And we’ve picked up some new golf courses. We have added the TPC Stadium Course (which will host two rounds of the tournament including the final) at 7,113 yards and a par 72 and the Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course (7,204 yards, par 72) to the only holdover – the La Quinta Country Club course (7,060 yards, par 72). So, we have two new courses and only one of the four rounds this year will be played on a course that was used last year.

The weather looks like it will be cool and mild with no chance of rain or wind at any point during the week. Check back Wednesday to see if any changes have come along.

Scorecard breakdown: All three courses are par 72 so we’ve got that going for us, which is nice. We’ll see the standard four par 3s, four par 5s and 10 par 4s on each course. You can tour the TPC Stadium Course, Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course and the La Quinta Country Club.

Field

It’s not the best field in the world (but certainly isn’t the worst we’ll see). We’ve got some top names like Patrick Reed, Phil Mickelson and Zach Johnson. And some of the guys you hadn’t heard of last week, but know by heart are here to continue building their resumes.

The full field can be found here.

Also, thanks to GolfOdds.com for the odds this week. If you’d like to see a second set of odds, check out the Betting Zone’s odds here – just click on this week’s tournament on the left hand pane.

Past Tournament Results

With the swap in courses, course history is thrown out the window almost completely. There is still some value to be had in players who play well in this environment (the West as well as in a pro-am).

Moreover, we’re moving to a Pete Dye course so we can look at players who succeed at Dye courses as well. We’ll also look at PGA Tour Qualifying School results as Q-School was held on a mix of these courses up until its last one in 2012.

So, here is the last three years’ worth of results here, but I wouldn’t go crazy with course history.

2016_CareerBuilder_Challenge_top20_last_3_years

Statistical Review

We’ve got two new courses and three new “rounds” this week so we’re going to simplify the stats we’re looking at this week.

Driving Accuracy % (DA) – On Dye courses, we like to keep the ball out of the mess he likes to put off the straight and narrow.

Birdie or Better % (BOB%) – And even though Dye likes to trick you, there will be scoring opportunities (especially on the non-Dye courses) so we need folks who can score when the opportunity presents itself.

That’s it. Nothing else this week beyond the normal analysis of Strokes Gained: Putting (SG:P) and Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (SG:T2G).

DraftKings Expert Picks

Patrick Reed | $12,400 – Reed’s form can’t be ignored. He’s on a run of seven straight top 10 finishes and won this tournament two years ago. . His accuracy off the tee is poor (171st last year) and he hasn’t been the best on Dye courses, but he gets three rounds no matter what and you can take some risks on lower priced guys to make him work.

Matt Kuchar | $12,100 – Kuch has finished in the top 20 two of the last three years at this event. Kuchar’s been good at Dye courses, but a lot of that work is at Harbour Links (the RBC Heritage) which not be the most applicable of Dye’s course to this event. He profiles very nicely here, though he finished 76th in DA last year so I’d rather see a bit more accuracy from him. I forgive him for making me sweat the cut line on Friday at the Sony.

Zach Johnson | $11,900 – As an accurate driver of the ball who is a wizard with the irons, he should have success here. He can also score well (28th in BOB%). He hasn’t finished outside of the top 25 at the PLAYERS Championship in the last six years. I like him a good bit this week as a pivot from Reed.

Bill Haas | $11,500 – Haas always seems to play well on the California swing. And his two wins and four total top 10 finishes in the last six years here back that up. He doesn’t profile well here, but you can’t ignore the West Coast history. I’ll have him on a representative amount of Haas in my lineups.

Ryan Palmer | $11,000 – I’m going to fade Palmer this week as he struggles regularly off the tee. For this kind of price I want someone who checks all the boxes and Palmer doesn’t. He fires the ball all over the course (151st in DA) He’s played well here in the past with three top six finishes in his last four trips with a missed cut. But, the addition of the Dye course to the rotation makes me think Palmer won’t be as successful as his price implies.

Kevin Na | $10,600 – Na’s profile works nicely though he’s a little loose off the tee (84th last year). If you take a look at his last three rounds last week, he played at 11-under. He tied for second at the Shriners in late 2015 at TPC Summerlin which is Dye-esque in its configuration. He’ll be a core guy when I’m paying up this week.

Phil Mickelson | $10,400 – A new swing changes and his 2016 Tour debut this week? No thanks. He also hasn’t made the cut at the PLAYERS (TPC Sawgrass – another Dye course) the last three years.

Jason Bohn | $10,100 – Bohn is my favorite to win this week. Yep, that’s right. He was one of the hotter golfers at the end of 2015 (three top three finishes in his four tournaments that ended calendar year 2015). He grades out as the second best play based on stats this week. He’s never missed the cut at this tourney, but he’s never finished better than T22. He seems to be the perfect marriage of form and profile.

Jason Dufner | $9,800 – Can’t putt. Rest of the profile works nicely. Ended 2015 with a T9. Started 2016 with a T9. He missed the cut here last year by shooting a 76-65. An 11 stroke swing exemplifies the joy and pain of owning Dufner. I will own more of him than you will.

Webb Simpson | $9,600 – Can’t putt. Rest of the profile works nicely. Hmmm…where have I heard that before? He has a bit of a better track record here than Dufner who is his statistical doppelganger this week. Played well last week with all four rounds under par.

Robert Streb | $9,400 – Streb’s accuracy off the tee (123rd last year) is the only reason I don’t recommend him more highly this week. He’s always been a fantastic scorer (especially on par 4s which is why he’s a stud on the par 70 courses). Even though we have all par 72s, Streb could be a key to GPPs this week as he’s been missing since the Nedbank (T4) and will be off gamers’ minds.

Marc Leishman | $9,300 – Leishman finished T28 last week just like Kevin Na. And he was just two shots out of a top 10 as there was a logjam of golfers who finished one shot ahead and were all T13. His profile doesn’t work at all, but his in solid form. Do you believe his form will triumph this week? If you do, that’s the reason to play him.

Charley Hoffman | $9,200 – The ultimate GPP play this week as Hoff either finishes in the top 10 or misses the cut at this event. It likely tracks to his ability to stay on the fairway (he finished 141st last year). He’ll be a part of many of my GPPs, but his variability is too much for me in cash games.

Charles Howell III | $9,100 – Howell III and Pete Dye courses just don’t mix. He finished T2 at this event three years ago, but the rest of his recent work is pedestrian at best.

Brendan Steele | $9,000 – Steele grew up around these parts and used to attend this tournament in his youth. That local knowledge hadn’t really helped him until last year when he finished T2. He’s an excellent scorer (14th in BOB%) and from tee to green (15th in SG:T2G). He needs to drive it straight to stay out of Dye’s hazards, but he could be a sneaky option.

Matt Jones | $8,900 – Jones has everything we want on a Dye course except accuracy from the tee (119th in DA last year). He’s played this event six times and has made the cut each time with one top 10. He usually plays well in California and has some success at Pebble Beach (another pro-am). I don’t a strong feeling either way so he’ll probably make his way to a couple of lineups.

David Lingmerth | $8,800 – I’d rather step down $100 and take Lingmerth who is playing quite well right now. He’s made eight cuts in a row over two years and profiles as someone who can succeed. He finished last year at 52nd in SG:T2G, 97th in SG:P, 46th in DA and 65th in BOB%. He’s got two top 25 finishes in this event in three trips.

Francesco Molinari | $8,700 – Molinari finished last year in first place in Driving Accuracy so he has to be considered again this week. Molinari struggled on Sunday at the Sony (and all week in hitting fairways), but his profile should work and he should be in for a solid outing.

Billy Horschel | $8,600 – Billy Ho has always enjoyed playing on Dye courses so this event should be right up his alley. His statistical profile says he should do well as he finished the 2015 season at 84th in SG:P, 51st in SG:P, 69th in DA and 43rd in BOB%. He hasn’t teed it up on the PGA Tour since the end of September so there could be some rust, but I like him a ton this week.

Graham DeLaet | $8,500 – I fade DeLaet every week. Always. I just can’t figure him out. And he seems to like to withdraw from time to time. But, we saw last week how good he can be when everything is working. He opened with a disastrous 73 and then fired rounds of 62-65-66 to end up 14-under. He was 17 under for the final three days. This, folks, is Graham DeLaet in a nutshell. GPP only for me this week.

Luke Donald | $8,400 – I know Donald showed up last week, but I still don’t trust him. He still had that one poor round (71 on Saturday) which seems to be his downfall. His profile just does not fit the courses this week. And I’ll look elsewhere.

Russell Henley | $8,300 – Henley did not play well last week disappointing many (including myself). His tee to green game leaves something to be desired, but he makes up for it with the putter. He has no history at this event and doesn’t have an extensive history at Dye courses. He has back to back top 25 finishes at the PLAYERS so that is something.

Zac Blair | $8,200 – Blair showed well down the stretch last week, but didn’t have enough to finish it out and ended up outside the playoff. He’s accurate off the tee and an excellent putter which should serve him well here. He’s made four cuts in a row on the wrap around season with two top 10s including last week. He missed the cut in his only time at this event.

Kevin Chappell | $8,100 – Chappell’s profile is somewhat similar to the more expensive David Lingmerth’s. He closed out 2015 with a solo second place at the RSM Classic. He’s never missed a cut here in four tries and has one top 10. His profile is solid with no one stat standing out, but the combination of above average skills making him an intriguing option.

William McGirt | $8,000 – McGirt’s played here the last five years and has never finished better than T30. But, he’s playing quite well closing out 2015 with back to back top 10s and kicking off 2016 last week with a T13. He has 20 or more birdies in his last three tournaments. If he’s scoring like that, the rest of his profile is spot on and we could see big things again this week.

Daniel Summerhays | $7,900 – Summerhays is a master-putter. He hasn’t missed a cut since early August – a run of 10 straight made cuts. He finished at T13 last week (as did about every other golfer). His resume on Dye courses is fine – neither great nor poor, but his current form means he must be considered.

Tony Finau | $7,800 – I like Finau this week on the non-Dye courses as he can score anywhere (eighth in BOB% last year). Of course, he’s no good off the tee and that could doom him on the Dye course. That said, I believe Finau could be a solid play this week as he’s coming in off two top 20 finishes to start this new year.

Cameron Tringale | $7,800 – He’s never missed a cut at this event in six tries. He’s never finished better than T30 here. He closed out 2015 with a T2 at the Shriners and T14 at the CIMB. He’s had some serious success at the Zurich Classic on a Dye layout. He’s a nice pivot play from Finau or McGirt who will likely be heavily owned.

Smylie Kaufman | $7,700 – Kaufman makes his debut here (as he will on many courses this year being a new graduate to the full Tour) this week. He missed the cut at the Web.com Tour Championship on TPC Sawgrass. But, he won at the Shriners at TPC Summerlin which has some Dye tricks around it. Since the start of the new season, he’s made every cut with a WIN and two other top 15 finishes.

Nick Watney | $7,600 – So, this is the definition of a “pivot play.” The man just below Watney will be quite popular based on his breakout performance at the Sony (and on dance floors everywhere). And he’s a fine player who will likely be over-owned. He’s had three top 10s at Pebble Beach (a pro-am) including a second place finish last year. His work on Dye courses is up and down, but he has had some big results as well as failures. He’s one of the better players on the California swing and I expect it to continue again this week.

Harold Varner III | $7,600 – I’m not sure there’s much to say here. HVIII exploded on the scene last week and he showed his scoring prowess. With three guaranteed rounds, he’s got a shot to score more than some golfers who make it through to Sunday even if he misses the cut. I’ll probably play more Watney than HVIII as I think lots of players will be on him, but I don’t see a reason not to use him in cash games.

Jerry Kelly | $7,500 – Kelly’s stats say he should succeed again this week (69th in SG:T2G, fourth in SG:P, ninth in DA, and 50th in BOB%). And he just makes cuts. He’s another safe play to fill out your cash game roster. He’s never had massive success here, but he’s 15 for 18 in cuts made.

Brian Harman | $7,500 – If you want to pay a lefty, I’d go with Harman over Phil. If only because he’s so much cheaper. He finished T13 last week at the Sony in his 2016 debut. Harman doesn’t usually score well (106th in BOB%), but rest of his game works. He finished T8 at the PLAYERS which could bode well this week.

Scott Brown | $7,400 – Brown played well to close out 2015 with back to back top 20 finishes. He’s had some success on Dye courses so he shouldn’t be spooked by the layout. His profile is fine and he should be able to navigate what comes this week.

Si Woo Kim | $7,400 – Kim comes in off a solo fourth place in the Sony and three straight top 20s. He also finished T18 at the Web.com Championship to close out 2015’s season. He also finished 20th at Q-School in 2012 so he’s seen this venue before. His form says he’s an excellent option and his work (though limited) on Dye layouts, confirms it.

Tim Clark | $7,300 – Clark missed four of five cuts to end calendar year 2015. Then, he shows up last week and throws a T13 at us firing all four rounds under 70. He’s one of the more accurate drivers of the ball, but usually doesn’t score this well. I don’t know if I trust him yet.

Will Wilcox | $7,300 – Do you want to hop on the train one more time? Sure, why not? What do you have to lose? He’s guaranteed to get three rounds even if he destroyed everyone’s cash game lineups last week. That said, I’m only going to put him on GPPs and remember, his profile fits this week (like it does just about every week).

John Senden | $7,200 – Senden is accurate off the tee (37th last year) so he’s got a puncher’s chance. He’s also had recent success at the PLAYERS so he could thrive at this Dye layout.

Jamie Lovemark | $7,200 – Lovemark closed out 2015 with a top 10 and opened up 2016 with another top 10. He’s not accurate off the tee, but he was one of the best scorers on the Web.com Tour last year. He also had two top five finishes at TPC Stonebrae on the Web.com Tour (another Dye-esque layout) which is also in California.

Jason Kokrak | $7,200 – Shakiness off the tee worries me this week. I’ll probably pass.

Patton Kizzire | $7,200 – Kizzire scored early and often on the Web.com Tour last year and that’s the reason to have some optimism about him this week. You’ll need guys who can score on the non-Dye courses and hope they can tread water on the Dye layout.

Brendon de Jonge | $7,100 – de Jonge’s accuracy and scoring make him a reasonable choice this week. And he’s seven for seven in cuts made here. He’s a safe cash game play this week as he’s made five cuts in a row on the wraparound season.

Peter Malnati | $7,100 – Malnati actually played this event two years ago, but his stumbles at the Sony last week would probably mean many gamers would be off him. He’s not the most accurate off the tee so I think he could struggle again.

Steve Stricker | $7,000 – He’s only played this even once in the last decade and finished T3 in 2009. His Sunday ruined what was a solid start to the year last week. I don’t see much in him for this event.

Boo Weekley | $7,000 – Weekley has been either great or terrible at this event. He’s done well on some Dye courses though not at the PLAYERS which I feel is the most applicable this week. He can’t putt, but a 75th place in DA and 63rd in BOB% means he has a shot if he can just putt a bit.

Jhonattan Vegas | $7,000 – Vegas won here in 2011 and then hasn’t made a full cut since then at this event. He missed the cut at the Web.com Championship in 2015 (at TPC Sawgrass) which gives me even more pause on Vegas.

Jeff Overton | $7,000 – Overton is six for six in cuts made here without a top 25 among them. His profile doesn’t seem to give him a chance. He’s done some things at the Zurich, but his Dye record outside of that is spotty. He made the cut last week, but wasn’t particular spectacular. He’ll probably make the cut, but there isn’t much upside.

Hudson Swafford | $7,000 – $7k for the Will Wilcox, Jr.? He’s certainly creeping slowly up the salary ranks. That said, his profile fits quite nicely (115th in SG:T2G, 26th in SG:P, 74th in DA and 23rd in BOB%). He’s coming off an excellent weekend at the Sony and I think he continues his good play this weekend.

Ollie Schniederjans | $7,000 – I’ll call him Ollie since I don’t feel like typing his last name more than once per column. Ollie makes an interesting choice this week especially at this price point. He’s playing on sponsor’s exemptions as he doesn’t have a Tour card. So, he’s going to go all out in the chances he has. He’s loooooooooooooooong off the tee, but that’s not important this week. What is important is he can score big. He can also flame out. I like him as a GPP option this week.

Sean O’Hair | $6,900 – O’Hair is a bit loose off the tee, but his scoring prowess makes him a consideration. He played well for the first three rounds last week and then faltered on Sunday dropping from sixth to 42 nd place. He made his first cut at this event last year in four tries.

Martin Laird | $6,800 – Laird has made seven of eight cuts at this event, but never finished in the top 20. He also had some success at TPC Sawgrass with back to back top five finishes in 2012 and 2013. This is his first start since November 2015.

David Hearn | $6,700 – Hearn’s profile is similar to Daniel Summerhays and he’s much cheaper. I’d buy Hearn in the hopes I get some Summerhays results this week. The problem is he’s never made the cut at this even in four tries. However, he’s done well on Dye courses in the past so perhaps the venue change helps him break that streak.

Brendon Todd | $6,700 – Todd won here in 2011 at PGA Qualifying School by navigating through a series of these courses. So, he has to be considered. His form is pretty terrible, but his profile should mean he can succeed this week (70th in SG:T2G, seventh in SG:P, 10th in DA, 70th in BOB%). He has to turn it around at some point – why not this week at a venue he’s had success at previously.

Jim Herman | $6,500 – For a golfer this far down the salary structure, Herman’s profile is pretty solid. He finished 2015 at 52nd in SG:T2G, 117th in SG:P, 33rd in DA, and 105th in BOB%. So, not everything you’d like to see, but certainly intriguing. He struggled at the Sony, but he had three straight top 20 finishes to close out 2015.

Ben Martin | $6,500 – Martin has one of the better overall statistical profiles though he’s not a standout in any one spot. He finished 2015 at 90th in SG:T2G, 71st in SG:P, 50th in DA and 40th in BOB%. He’s played the event twice and never made the cut. He made the cut last week and shot 8-under over the last three days after an opening round 70. He’s been over 74 DK points in his last three starts on Tour.

D.J. Trahan | $6,400 – Did you know Trahan won this tournament in 2008? Did you know he’d won a PGA Tournament at all? He’s actually won two. He could be a sneaky play here as he ended 2015 with back to back top 20 finishes.

Colt Knost | $6,400 – My man! I love me some Knost again this week even if he’s above $6k. His profile fits the type of player we’re looking for this week and his disappointing play last week makes a good buying opportunity.

Erik Compton | $6,200 – I’m going going, back back, to Cali Cali. And for Compton, it’s like home even though he’s from Florida. He loves playing out here and finished T10 in this tourney last year. He finished T7 at PGA Q-School in 2012 which was held on these courses. He just seems to perk up and perform well out here year in and year out. I will be rostering him heavily even in cash games.

Tyrone Van Aswegen | $6,200 – Van Aswegen is one of two in cuts made at the CareerBuilder Challenge. He’s made six cuts in a row since the new season began (though nothing spectacular) and finished T5 at the Web.com Tour Championship in early October played on a Dye course (TPC Sawgrass). His profile almost never fits any course, but somehow he makes cuts from time to time.

Troy Merritt | $6,200 – Merritt won the 2009 PGA Tour Q-School so he’s seen some of these venues previously and succeeded. He’s played the event three times but his best finish was last year’s T48. He did finish last year at 81st in DA and he’s always been able to putt. So, he’s got a chance.

Tom Hoge | $6,200 – This far down the list you’re looking for one or two things to hang your hat on. And Hoge offers scoring (34th last year in BOB%) and solid tee to green (52nd in SG:T2G). He missed the cut last week, but he’s got a game to work here.

Mark Hubbard | $6,200 – Hubbard has made six straight cuts since the new season started. He finished 38th in DA% last year on the PGA Tour. And he’s put up back to back 86+ point DK runs including last week when he finished way down at T56. Giddyup!

Derek Fathauer | $6,100 – Fathauer has successfully qualified for the PGA Tour via Q-School twice at this complex. He ended up second in 2008 and T30 in 2012. And he finished ninth at the Web.com Tour Championship in 2014 (played at TPC Sawgrass – a Dye course) and won it the year before on the same course. And he was also T17 at the PLAYERS (also at TPC Sawgrass). That’s a lot of Dye experience which should come in handy this week.

Chad Collins | $6,000 – Collins has two top 10s in five trips to this event – the same number as Zach Johnson. Now, he’s no ZJ. He finished 66 in DA last year, but rest of his profile is pretty ugly with respect to our filters.

D.H. Lee | $5,900 – Lee finished the Web.com Tour at 15th in Driving Accuracy. Oh, he also won the PGA Tour Q-School in 2012 on these courses. A very fine punt play even if he hasn’t put up much in the way of results so far in the new season.

Good luck this week! Head over to DraftKings to choose your squad for this week.

DraftKings Scoring

Roster size: 6 Golfers

POINT SCORING

Golfers on each team will accumulate points as follows:

  • Per Hole Scoring
    • Double Eagle (DBL EAG): +20 PTs
    • Eagle (EAG): +8 PTs
    • Birdie (BIR): +3 PTs
    • Par (PAR): +0.5 PTs
    • Bogey (BOG): -0.5 PTs
    • Double Bogey (DBL BOG): -1 PT
    • Worse than Double Bogey (WORSE DBL BOG): -1 PT
  • Tournament Finish Scoring
    • 1st: 30 PTs
    • 2nd: 20 PTs
    • 3rd: 18 PTs
    • 4th: 16 PTs
    • 5th: 14 PTs
    • 6th: 12 PTs
    • 7th: 10 PTs
    • 8th: 9 PTs
    • 9th: 8 PTs
    • 10th: 7 PTs
    • 11th–15th: 6 PTs
    • 16th–20th: 5 PTs
    • 21st–25th: 4 PTs
    • 26th–30th: 3 PTs
    • 31st–40th: 2 PTs
    • 41st-50th: 1 PTs
  • Streaks and Bonuses
    • Streak of 3 Birdies of Better (MAX 1 Per Round) (3+ BIR STRK): +3 PTs
    • Bogey Free Round (BOG FREE RD): +3 PTs
    • All 4 Rounds Under 70 Strokes (ALL 4 RDS UND 70): +5 PTs
    • Hole in One (HOLE IN ONE): +10 PTs

Scoring Notes: Ties for a finishing position will not reduce or average down points. For example, if 2 golfers tie for 3rd place, each will receive the 18 fantasy points for the 3rd place finish result. Playoff Holes will not count towards final scoring, with the exception of the “finishing position” scoring. For example, the golfer who wins the tournament will receive the sole award of 1st place points, but will not accrue points for their scoring result in the individual playoff holes.

Player Lock Notes: All golfers lock at the time the first golfer tees off on day 1 of an event.

Full rules are located here for DraftKings Daily Fantasy golf.

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