Daily Fantasy Golf Strategy: Frys.com Open
That is one short offseason, eh? The PGA Tour is back for the start of their new season and Daily Fantasy Golf is back at DraftKings. Yes, it’s still 2015, but the same old year brings a new season for the PGA. And we have a full field. And a cut even. It’s been a while since we’ve seen either of those on Tour.
It’s a great week to check out DraftKings as they have some top notch contests for the final week. Come on over and take a look.
Tour Stop
For our first tournament of the season, we head to the Fyrs.com Open in Napa, California. The host is the North Course at the Silverado Country Club. It’s a par-72 course that runs 7,203 yards. This is the second year for the Frys to be hosted here. The course was originally designed by Robert Trent Jones, but Johnny Miller came in in 2011 to redesign it.
It doesn’t look like we’ll have any weather issues as it’s a beautiful Fall weekend in California. Check back Wednesday to see how the weather evolves.
Scorecard breakdown: The standard par 72 with They turn two of the par fives into par fours to get to Four (4) par threes, ten (10) par fours and four(4) par fives.
Field
It’s a mostly full field with 144 golfers teeing it up this week.
The full field can be found here.
Thanks to GolfOdds.com for the odds this week. If you’d like to see a second set of odds, check out the Betting Zone’s odds here – just click on this week’s tournament on the left hand pane.
Past Tournament Results
The Frys Open has been held just once at the Silverado Country Club. So, we don’t have a lot of history to go on. We’ll certainly key on golfers who like this California swing.
Statistical Review
So, we have a course that’s only hosted the tournament for one year. It’s the first tournament of the year after a layoff (long in some cases) for the players. So, we don’t have history or form to guide us. So let’s take a look at statistics we can use to help us.
This week, I’ll focus on:
Greens in Regulation (GIR) – Seven of the top eleven finishers last year were in the top 10 in GIR for the week.
Par 5 Scoring – As it’s a par 72 course, we need par 5 scorers and many of the top 20 finishers did the majority of their damage on the par 5s.
Par 4 Scoring – Now, to find those who will challenge for the win, we need to pair par 5 scoring with solid par 4 skills.
I also always examine Strokes Gained: Putting and Strokes Gained: Tee to Green every week with SG: T2G being more important and more predictable from week to week.
DraftKings Expert Picks
Rory McIlroy | $12,800 – Sure, he’s the best player in the field. But, does he really want to be here? I wouldn’t be surprised if he missed the cut here as he may use this more as a couple of practice rounds instead of a real tournament. He’s still rounding in to health and I’m not sure his head will be in after being “forced” to play here.
Justin Rose | $12,000 – Sure, he’s the second best player in the field, But does he really…oh, never mind. Rose is in a similar boat as McIlroy except he’s been relatively healthy recently. Like McIlroy, I just don’t see him being into this tournament. Like McIlroy he has all of the tools to succeed here (or just about anywhere). I’ll have a sprinkling of rosters with Rory and Rose, but I will certainly be underweight both of them this week.
Hideki Matsuyama | $10,800 – Sure, he’s the third….ok, now I think we can take Hideki seriously. He was T3 here last year in his debut. He also has a profile that works – he’s 21st in GIR%, 24th in par 5 scoring and third in par 4 scoring.
Brooks Koepka | $10,600 – Unlike many other Americans, Koepka kept palying after the FedEx Cup playoffs. He finished T2 at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in Scotland two weeks ago. There isn’t anything applicable from links course success to the Frys Open, but Koepka comes in with solid form. Like Hideki, he played here last year and did well finishing T8. Like Hideki, he has a profile that works – 17th in GIR%, seventh in par 5 scoring and tenth in par 4 scoring.
Justin Thomas | $9,300 – Thomas’ profile is similar to the man just a notch below (27th in GIR, second in par 5 scoring and 26th in par 4 scoring). However, he the cut at the Frys last year by a stroke after an opening round 69.
Tony Finau | $9,200 – I dig Finau and he seems to dig this course as he finished T12 here last year in his debut at the Frys. Finau was 57th in GIR%, 40th in par 5 scoring and 26th in par 4 scoring last season so his profile will work this week.
Robert Streb | $9,200 – Streb’s profile should work here – he’s 23rd in GIR%, 61st in par 5 scoring and 18th in par 4 scoring. He finished T31 here last year even with two rounds of 74.
Kevin Na | $9,000 – Na was a metronome last season making 25 of 28 cuts with seven top 10 finishes. He had three top 20 finishes in his last four tournaments before the break. He’s a safe play, but may have a tough time getting to his full value.
Daniel Berger | $8,900 – Berger ran through the last three tournaments of the2014-2015 season with a T12, second and T12. His profile fits Frys (even if he missed the cut here last year) as he was 30th in GIR, 13th in par 5 scoring and 50th in par 4 scoring.
Brandt Snedeker | $8,800 – I want to see him back in form before I’m spending my hard earned money on him. Since missing the cut at the British Open, his best finish was a T22 at the TOUR Championship (pssssst..there were only 29 players in the TOUR Championship).
Emiliano Grillo | $8,800 – You may be saying to yourself…who is Emiliano Grillo? And why is he up here in this rarified air? Well, he did win the Web.com Championship and he made 19 starts on the PGA or European Tour making 17 cuts. He lost in a playoff in Puerto Rico in early March and had five top 10s on the year. I imagine no one will be on him this week as he’s surrounded by a bunch of people everyone has heard of.
Charl Schwartzel | $8,700 – Schwartzel makes his debut here this year and I’d rather go elsewhere this week as you can buy his profile for a lot cheaper. He did finish 52nd in par 5 scoring last year, but we can find guy like that for a couple of thousand dollars less.
Hunter Mahan | $8,600 – The FedEx Cup playoffs have ended so it’s time to ignore Mahan again for another full year. Well, perhaps not so fast. He was T3 at the Frys last year. And he’s always had some success on the California courses (perhaps because he grew up in California).
Brendan Steele | $8,300 – Steele has a profile that works here. He finished last season 40th in GIR%, 28th in par 5 scoring and 10th in par 4 scoring. He teed it up here last year and put up a respectable T21.
Matt Jones | $8,200 – Jones scorches par 5s (19th on the PGA Tour last year). He missed the cut here last year, but he’ll have a chance with his skills on par 5s.
Steven Bowditch | $8,200 – Bowditch finished second here last year and that was the start of fantastic season for him. He finished last season 158th in GIR, 61st in par 5 scoring and 26th in par4 scoring. So, it’s not the best profile, but he can score so he’s got a chance to repeat his success here from last year.
Webb Simpson | $8,100 – Simpson finished fourth in par 5 scoring last year on the PGA Tour. Which is nice. He was also 53rd in GIR, but a dismal 114th in par 4 scoring. So, do you trust his par 5 scoring to keep him in the hunt?
Daniel Summerhays | $8,000 – It’s not clear to me why Summerhays is up here at $8,000. He finished 113th in GIR%, 97th in par 5 scoring and 18th in par 4 scoring. He finished 46th in the Frys last year. I don’t know, but I’m not on him this week.
Patrick Rodgers | $8,000 – Rodgers played his way on to the PGA Tour, by playing on the PGA Tour. He earned enough points on sponsor’s exemptions last year to get his card for this year. And Rodgers’ scoring stats (40th in par 5 and 26th in par 4 scoring) make him a solid choice this week.
Russell Knox | $7,900 – I’m going to fade Knox this week (perhaps to my detriment) as I’m worried about his par 5 scoring (145th last season). He’s was seventh in GIR% and par 4 scoring so he’s got the rest of the profile to work, but that par 5 scoring mark worries me.
Chez Reavie | $7,800 – Reavie’s made four straight cuts at the Frys which is nice. However, his result last year (T53) wasn’t great. He comes in playing very well (on the Web.com Tour) as he won at the Small Business Connection Championship and finished second at the Web.com Tour Championship – the final event of the season. If you roster Reavie you are counting on his form continuing as he has nothing else going for him.
Charles Howell III | $7,600 – Howell III is usually a man who makes the cut. He also profiles well with a 24th standing in par 5 scoring and 38th in GIR%. He won’t likely win, but could make a solid piece in cash games.
Jason Bohn | $7,600 – We love Bohn! He finished 28th in GIR%, 78th in par 5 scoring and sixth in par 4 scoring. So, he’s got most of the profile we want to see this week. He missed the cut here last year.
Lucas Glover | $7,600 – Glover ended last year with back to back top 15 finishes in the final two Web.com tournaments of the year. So, he’s in solid current form. But, his profile is spotty. He was tenth in GIR%, but only 78th in par 5 scoring and 147th in par 4 scoring. But, Glover’s big bugaboo is putting – he finished last in Strokes Gained: Putting on the PGA Tour last year and we just can’t count on his putter showing up at any point.
Rory Sabbatini | $7,500 – Sabbatini’s profile is very similar to Jason Bohn’s as he was 28th in GIR%, 78th in par 5 scoring and sixth in par 4 scoring. And he’ll likely be much lower-owned than Bohn. He stumbled a bit down the stretch, but he has some skills to succeed.
Bryce Molder | $7,500 – Sure, Molder was T3 here last year, but it’s the smallest of sample sizes to work with. His profile doesn’t look great as he finished 119th in GIR, 166th in par 5 scoring and 18th in par 4 scoring last season. He’s had success at past Frys as well so perhaps he just likes the California son.
Pat Perez | $7,500 – Remember, if a tournament is played in California, then Perez should be on your cash game radar. And his profile fits quite nicely as he was 48 th in GIR%, 52 nd in par 5 scoring and tenth in par 4 scoring. He did miss the cut here last year, but again we can’t put too much stock into one week’s worth of rounds.
Graham DeLaet | $7,500 – It’s a new season and the same old DeLaet. He’s got all the talent in the world, but is probably just as likely to withdraw with an injury as he is to make the cut. I’m eternally fading DeLaet.
Jonas Blixt | $7,500 – Blixt par 5 scoring (61st) last season is about the only thing to hang your hat on this week. He did have three top 25 finishes in his last five PGA Tour starts, but his profile scares me off.
Jamie Lovemark | $7,500 – Lovemark spent most of last year on the Web.com tour, but his two forays onto the PGA Tour were a T31 at the Honda in March and T18 at the U.S. Open. And his profile on the Web.com Tour looks like it will play – he was first in par 5 scoring, sixth in par 4 scoring and 51st in GIR. He was the 2007 NCAA player of the year at USC and the 2010 Web.com Tour Player of the Year. We like him as a mid-tier option this week.
Ryo Ishikawa | $7,500 – Ishikawa bombed out his PGA Tour season at The Barclays with a tT66. Then, he went back home and picked up a win and T6 in three tournaments in Asia. He’s playing well so there is hope he can carry that over here and build on his T19 from last year.
Roberto Castro | $7,500 – Castro closed the Web.com Tour season on a tear with three straight top 10 finishes in that last three tournaments of the season. There aren’t many golfers coming in hotter. He did finish 61st on the PGA in par 5 scoring, but the rest of the profile isn’t great (99th in GIR% and 157th in par 4 scoring).
Will Wilcox | $7,500 – Wilcox ended his season on “injured reserve” with a knee injury. He noted on his website that he’s fully healthy. Wilcox finished last year fourth in GIR%, 78th in par 5 scoring and third in par 4 scoring. He makes his debut at the Frys.com Open and can challenge if he can scald those par 4s.
Cameron Smith | $7,500 – I am contractually obligated to mention Smith whenever he plays. And that restraining order, well…let’s not discuss it. Smith is my favorite young player right now. He missed the cut his last time out at the Mercuries Taiwan Masters, but I’m going to have him on some rosters as his all-around game plays just about anywhere.
Martin Laird | $7,400 – Performed well here last year, but is in horrific form. Does he snap out of it this week? I’ll let someone else figure it out.
Zac Blair | $7,300- Blair finished T12 here last year. After putting up his best finish of the year (T4) at the Barclays, he put up two stinks (T60 and T53).
Jim Herman | $7,200 – What a nice profile you have Mr. Herman! Second in GIR%, 61st in par 5 scoring and 50th in par scoring. He missed the cut here last week, but I’m not concerned.
Jason Gore | $7,100 – Gore is a Californian who grew up playing on the poa annua greens native to California courses. And……that’s about it for him.
Shawn Stefani | $7,100 – Stefani finished 32nd in GIR%, 24th in par 5 scoring and 26th in par scoring last year. He struggled down the stretch last year. He made six of seven cuts, but had only one finish better than T35 in that run of seven tournaments.
Hudson Swafford | $6,900 – Swafford is the statistical darling (light version – Will Wilcox holds the crown) who seems to fit just about every course. Swafford finished last PGA Tour season 39th in GIR%, 28th in par 5 scoring and 50th in par 4 scoring. He finished T8 here last year in his debut so he’s shown he can succeed here.
Ollie Schniederjans | $6,800 – Schniederjans bombs the ball which should help him on the par 5s this week. We don’t have a lot else to go on other than his is solid run of three straight top 25 finishes in the middle of the summer. He’s missed three straight cuts including his last time out two weeks ago at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship.
Dawie Van Der Walt | $6,400 – Van der Walt is a Web.com graduate and his Web.com profile fits like a glove for the Frys. He finished the Web.com Tour third in GIR, sixth in par 5 scoring and third in par 4 scoring. He won twice on the Web.com Tour last year and is third in priority order for new graduates.
D.H. Lee | $6,300 – Web.com grad with solid profile? Sure, why not another Lee finished 17th in GIR%, 54th in par 5 scoring and 23rd in par 4 scoring.
Steve Marino | $6,100 – Marino heads back on Tour after his solid work on the Web.com Tour. And he brings with him a solid profile as he was 40th in GIR%, 22nd in par 5 scoring and third in par 4 scoring.
Michael Kim | $6,000 – Good profile? Check (fifth in GIR%, 22nd in par 5 scoring and sixth in par 4 scoring on the Web.com Tour last year. Played his amateur golf in California? Check (grew up in San Diego and went to Cal-Berkeley). Finished in the top 20 at the U.S. Open in 2013? Check!
Si Woo Kim | $5,700 – Kim was 27th in par 5 scoring and 23rd in par 4 scoring on last year’s Web.com tour. That works for this week’s tournament.
Bronson Burgoon | $5,400 – Burgoon is another Web.com graduate and he profiles quite nicely as well. He finished last season at sixth in GIR%, 63rd in par 5 scoring and 23rd in par 4 scoring. Beyond having a fantastic name, he hit the clinching shot for the Texas A&M 2009 national title team. He also doesn’t have a Wikipedia page, so get on that people!
Harold Varner III | $5,400 – Varner III is another Web.com Tour grad with a fine profile that should work here. He finished 20th in GIR, 22nd in par 5 scoring and 57th in par 4 scoring.
Wes Roach | $5,100 – Roach is another Web.com graduate with a nice profile for this week’s tournament. Roach was 57th in GIR%, 16th in par 5 scoring and 11th in par 4 scoring. He had full Tour status in 2013 and made just 11 of 22 cuts though he did have a T4 at the Puerto Rico Open.
DraftKings Scoring
Roster size: 6 Golfers
POINT SCORING
Golfers on each team will accumulate points as follows:
- Per Hole Scoring
- Double Eagle (DBL EAG): +20 PTs
- Eagle (EAG): +8 PTs
- Birdie (BIR): +3 PTs
- Par (PAR): +0.5 PTs
- Bogey (BOG): -0.5 PTs
- Double Bogey (DBL BOG): -1 PT
- Worse than Double Bogey (WORSE DBL BOG): -1 PT
- Tournament Finish Scoring
- 1st: 30 PTs
- 2nd: 20 PTs
- 3rd: 18 PTs
- 4th: 16 PTs
- 5th: 14 PTs
- 6th: 12 PTs
- 7th: 10 PTs
- 8th: 9 PTs
- 9th: 8 PTs
- 10th: 7 PTs
- 11th–15th: 6 PTs
- 16th–20th: 5 PTs
- 21st–25th: 4 PTs
- 26th–30th: 3 PTs
- 31st–40th: 2 PTs
- 41st-50th: 1 PTs
- Streaks and Bonuses
- Streak of 3 Birdies of Better (MAX 1 Per Round) (3+ BIR STRK): +3 PTs
- Bogey Free Round (BOG FREE RD): +3 PTs
- All 4 Rounds Under 70 Strokes (ALL 4 RDS UND 70): +5 PTs
- Hole in One (HOLE IN ONE): +10 PTs
Scoring Notes: Ties for a finishing position will not reduce or average down points. For example, if 2 golfers tie for 3rd place, each will receive the 18 fantasy points for the 3rd place finish result. Playoff Holes will not count towards final scoring, with the exception of the “finishing position” scoring. For example, the golfer who wins the tournament will receive the sole award of 1st place points, but will not accrue points for their scoring result in the individual playoff holes.
Player Lock Notes: All golfers lock at the time the first golfer tees off on day 1 of an event.
Full rules are located here for DraftKings Daily Fantasy golf.