Daily Fantasy Golf Strategy: Shell Houston Open
We are back this week for another look at Daily Fantasy PGA at DraftKings. The wind and weather crushed just about anyone that teed it up early Thursday and crushed the hopes of many DFS players early on. Weather is a factor every week, but rarely does it have the effect it did this past week.
We are in Texas for one more week before we head to August for the Masters. We head to Houston for the Shell Houston Open. Let’s see if I can help you out this week.
It’s a great week to check out DraftKings as they have some top notch contests. Come on over and take a look.
Tour Stop
This week we are in Humble, Texas just outside of Houston at the Shell Houston Open. The Open is played at the Golf Club of Houston on the Tournament Course. The course measures 7,441 yards with a par 72 scorecard. This is seen as a tune up for the Masters and the course does its best to set up the course like the Masters to attract a top notch list of entrants. The greens here are Bermudagrass unlike Augusta which is planted with bent grass greens and is perhaps one of the main reasons just two winners from the Shell Houston Open have finished in the top 15 at the Masters since 2006.
The tournament has been held at the Golf Club of Houston since 2006. Any other data prior to 2006 is not relevant.
The weather looks like a little dicey as thunderstorms are possible just about every day and there will be wind most days with it looking a bit worse in the morning (especially Thursday). So, as with last week, watch tee times and weather reports coming out of Humble later this week.
Scorecard breakdown: Three (3) par threes, twelve (12) par fours and three (3) par fives. We’ve got more par fours than usual so we’ll have to check in on our par four scoring leaders this week and get them in our lineups.
Field
We have a solid field with 13 of the OWGR top 25 teeing it up here and 37 of the players will play next week at the Masters. The field also includes 14 former major championship winners. We keep our focus on Texans and also highlight some Aussies who also play well in the Texas conditions.
The full field can be found here.
Also, thanks to GolfOdds.com for the odds this week. If you’d like to see a second set of odds, check out the Betting Zone’s odds here – just click on this week’s tournament on the left hand pane.
Past Tournament Results
2014 Winner: Matt Jones picked up his first PGA Tour victory defeating Matt Kuchar in a playoff. Jones was hot on Sunday as he trailed by six shots entering the round, fired a final round 66 that including a 46-foot birdie on 18 to force a playoff. Then, to top it off, he chipped in on the first playoff hole for the win.
Last year, Matt Kuchar led the field in GIR, winner Matt Jones finished second. Jones also finished first in strokes gained: putting and scrambled relatively week (T28). He drove it well (21 st), but also accurately (T25).
Since this course is set up like Augusta, we will find that bombers aren’t the best option and we want to look at mid to long hitters who are accurate and who can either putt well or scramble (or both if that magical player exists). It’s a golf course that tests the all-around game, so well-rounded players are rewarded.
Here is the top 20 from last year’s tournament
There are a lot of premium players on that leaderboard and that’s where we will focus a lot of our energy this week.
DraftKings Expert Picks
Henrik Stenson| $13,300 – Stenson has withdrawn with an illness so make sure he’s not in your lineups.
Jordan Spieth | $13,200 – Spieth has a terrible course history with a missed cut (last year) and a T50 over the last two years. However, he may be the hottest golfer in the world right now with a win and second place finish in his last two outings. He’s also a Texan and looks like he cannot be stopped.
Jimmy Walker | $12,100 – Walker has made the cut the last five years at the SHO. However, the Texan’s best finish is a T24 last year. He’s coming in hot off his win and I don’t usually like backing the prior week’s winner so I’ll probably look elsewhere this week at the top of the board.
Patrick Reed | $11,700 – Reed has only played here once (in 2013) and missed the cut. I don’t particularly care about the short record. Reed hasn’t missed a cut since the British Open last year, his worst finish this season is T40 and his last time out he finished T2 after losing in a playoff. He’s a big hitter and usually scrambles his way out of trouble. Scrambling could be tough this week so I’m a little reticent to use him in cash games, but should be a good GPP play as I’m not sure he’ll be heavily owned.
Matt Kuchar | $11,400 – Kuch has played the SHO three of the last five years. His finishes? T8, T8 and solo second (last year). He held up well last week closing with a Sunday round of 69 to secure a T15 at the Valero. I’m going to try to sneak him into my lineups where I can even at this price.
Rickie Fowler | $9,900 – Fowler spent 2014 gearing himself up for the majors and it showed with his performance in the big tournaments and down the stretch. He’s been solid this season not missing a cut. But outside of a T3 at the WGC-HSBC in late 2014, he’s had only one other top 25 finish in his other six tournaments. I’ll look elsewhere this week.
Sergio Garcia | $9,600 – Garcia picked up a solo third at the SHO last year with his only other start here in 2009 (T77). He did hold the lead after two rounds so he can make his way around this course. We haven’t seen him since Doral where he stumbled to a T31 with a final round 78. I have a good feeling about Sergio this week.
Phil Mickelson | $9,500 – Mickelson has made five weekends in a row at the Houston and six of the last seven. He won in 2011 and followed that up with a T4, T16 and T12 (last year). After struggling in February, he seems to have righted the ship making three straight cuts including a T30 last week at the Valero. He started off hot last week heading into the week in sixth place, but faltered to a 74-76 on the weekend to end in T30.
Ryan Moore | $9,400 – Moore hasn’t played here since 2012 (a T88), but had a T11 in 2009 (his only other start at this course). He withdrew from the Humana in late January, but since then he has four straight top 25 finishes and back to back top 10s entering this week and is playing as well as just about any player on tour.
J.B. Holmes | $9,300 – Holmes has played the SHO four times since 2009, made the cut each of those four years and picked up two top 10 finishes. He finished T12 last year on the Tournament Course. He missed the cut his last time out at the Arnold Palmer and broke many players’ hearts (including this writer). However, we can’t let one bad week sour our feelings for Holmes who had four straight top 25s prior to that stumble and two second place finishes. Holmes offers the best value (in the top 10 odds on winners) versus the Vegas odds as he rates 11th in DK salaries but 8th in consensus odds to win the tournament.
Louis Oosthuizen | $9,300 – Oosty came into last year’s SHO on a hot streak with three top 20 finishes in a row at this tournament and back to back top 10s. He was on my list of top players for last year’s tournament and of course he bombed out and missed the cut in 2014. He missed the cut at the Valspar, but in his other five tournaments he’s finished no lower than T14 and has four straight top 10s when he’s made the cut.
Lee Westwood | $9,200 – Westwood has made the cut each of the last six years and has four top 20s and no finish worse than T30 (2011). He took last week off, but hasn’t missed a cut since the British Open last year. His worst finish this season was a T25 at the Honda. He’s got course history and form on his side.
Justin Rose | $9,100 – Rose hasn’t played here since 2010 so his course history is a bit short. His form is poor as well with three cuts missed in his last four appearances on tour. He’s been battling a wrist injury on and off this year. Perhaps his time off has allowed him to recover, but let someone else find out.
Bill Haas | $9,000 – Haas has made the cut in back to back years at the SHO. Including his win at the Humana, his last five starts have produced WIN, 76 th, T19, CUT, T7. He’s been a bit all over the place on tour lately so his volatility will play better in GPPs where he could end up in the top 20 or home for the weekend.
Keegan Bradley | $8,900 – Bradley went back to back top 10 finishes in 2012 and 2013 here. He’s made the cut in each of his four trips to the SHO. He’s made seven of eight cuts this season (missing the cut at the Honda). His last time out at Bay Hill, he was in line for a top 15 finish but flopped on Sunday with a 77 to end T49.
Jason Kokrak | $8,800 – Kokrak’s has played here three times and his history reads CUT, ninth, CUT. So, looks like he’s in line for a top 10 finish if the pattern holds. But, before you dismiss him, look at his last three tournament finishes and see T7, sixth, T11. We have a golfer in excellent form who has shown some life at the tournament. He’s priced a little higher than I would like, but should make an excellent addition to a balanced lineup on DraftKings.
Matt Jones | $8,700 – Jones won the SHO last year in a playoff with Matt Kuchar. He played out of his mind on Sunday chasing Kuchar (and everyone else) down and then chipping in on the first playoff hole. He’s made 10 cuts in a row on Tour and has been lights out the last four weeks with a T7, T14, third and T26 in those last four tournaments. I generally don’t like to roster the prior year’s winner, but his current form makes me consider him this week.
Brendan Steele | $8,300 – Steele’s history here isn’t great with two missed cuts in his four appearances at the SHO in the last four years. His best finish is a T38 in 2013. However, his form is choice. He hasn’t missed a cut since the British Open last year and has three top 15 finishes in his last four starts on Tour including a T8 last week at the Valero. He ticks a lot of the statistical boxes as well with a standing of 49th in GIR, 16th in par four scoring and 26th in ball striking.
Hunter Mahan | $8,100 – Mahan has four top 10 finishes since 2007 including a win in 2012 at the SHO. He’s also missed the cut three times since 2007. His all or nothing approach is great for GPPs, but that volatility likely won’t be rewarded in cash games.
Charl Schwartzel | $8,000 – Schwartzel finished T19 last year at the SHO and also has a T3 in his history. Schwartzel’s been up and down with his last four appearances on Tour ending as CUT, T41, CUT, T44. With his bumpy current form, I’d like Schwartzel in GPPs, but I’d avoid him in cash games.
Paul Casey | $8,000 – Casey won here in 2009, took a couple of years off and then missed the cut three straight years at the SHO. Casey missed the cut his last time out at Bay Hill, but prior to that had made three cuts in a row including two top three finishes at the NTO and the Honda. I’m not sure what to make of Casey this week, so I’ll probably fade him. However, he’s got something to play for as he’s going to tee it up at the Masters next week for the first time in a couple of years.
Martin Kaymer | $7,900 – Kaymer’s three appearances at the SHO have led to two missed cuts and a T42 (way back in 2009). He missed the cut at the Valero with two awful rounds opening with an 82 and following that up with an 80 to bomb out. I’m scared off by those two rounds and won’t be rostering him anywhere.
Jamie Donaldson | $7,700 – Donaldson continues his run through the United States making his debut at the Houston Open. He’s done pretty well since coming over in February with four cuts made in five starts. He missed the cut at the Valspar last time out, but does have two top 20s since crossing the ponds. I like Donaldson a lot, but his stats on the year scare me this week (191st in GIR, 204th in par four scoring and T180 in ball striking).
Shawn Stefani | $7,700 – Stefani is from the Houston area and played his college golf at Lamar University. He’s made three cuts in a row and finished in the top 30 in each of those three tournaments. He’s played here the last three years and made the cut twice and had his best finish last year with a T5. Stefani is also underpriced versus bookmakers’ odds with his salary three slots below where his odds say he should be.
Charley Hoffman | $7,500 – Hoffman showed well last week with a T11 and looks to continue his success in Texas this week. He’s made the cut all eight times he’s entered the Houston Open including the last four years straight. He’s best finish in the last four years was a T20 in 2013 so he probably isn’t a threat to win here, but he’s a good shot to make the weekend.
Daniel Berger | $7,500 – If it’s Berger, it must be another debut. He’s 31 st in GIR and 11th in par four scoring and eighth in ball striking so his game fits the course well. His volatility will fit well in GPPs as his current form shows a second, missed cut, T13 and missed cut last week at Valero.
Cameron Tringale | $7,300 – Tringale has played here the last four years and made the cut each of those years including two top ten finishes. He picked up a solo fourth place finish last year (his second top 10 in the last three years). He’s made six straight cuts and comes off of a solid T40 last week so he looks to be in solid form.
Justin Thomas | $7,100 – Thomas makes his debut here this week. He sits 81 st in GIR, but 27 th in driving distance so his length off the tee may make up for a bit of the accuracy issues. He also sits second in par five scoring and will have to take advantage of those three par fives to make a dent on the leaderboard.
Charles Howell III | $7,100 – Howell missed the cut here last year, but his two appearances prior to that he finished in the top 20. He missed the cut last week, but got caught up in the early weather issues on Thursday and couldn’t recover. I’ll give him another shot this week as he’d made eight cuts in a row coming into the Valero Open.
Graham Delaet | $7,100 – DeLaet has made three of four cuts here and has a top five finish to his name. He finished T19 last year as he steadily trekked around the course with no round lower than 70 or higher than 72. It is likely he won’t be heavily owned as he’s missed three cuts in a row, but he has to turn it around at some point and this could be the week. A great GPP option at a low price with top 20 upside.
Russell Henley | $7,000 – Henley’s two for two in cuts made at the SHO and was T7 last year. He’s making cuts, but hasn’t had very impressive recent results as evidenced by his last five finishes – T59, T61, T44, T56 and T49. His GIR (currently 120th) concerns me a bit and could hurt him this week. He offers great value based on the odds as his salary on DraftKings is five spots lower than it should be based on his consensus odds to win the tournament.
Victor Dubuisson | $7,000 – Do you know who leads the European Tour in GIR? Why, yes it is Mr. Dubuisson. And this week, GIR is the number one stat to focus on. He’s making his debut at the SHO and hasn’t shown well in the States in 2015, but could be in line for a nice week.
Carlos Ortiz | $6,800 – Ortiz makes his debut at the SHO this week, but he’s no stranger to the conditions that Texas will throw at a golfer. He grew in Mexico and played his college golf at the University of North Texas. He showed quite well last week with a T21. He opened with a 79, but rebounded with a 67 to make the cut and shows he can handle just about any type of condition. He’s made three cuts in a row including back to back top 25s.
John Peterson | $6,500 – Peterson has withdrawn so ensure he isn’t in your lineup.
Ernie Els | $6,200 – Els is six for six in cuts made at this tournament (with five of them at the Golf Club of Houston). After missing four cuts in a row once he came to the States, he put up a T13 at Bay Hill a couple of weeks ago. He makes an intriguing low dollar play as he’d had success on the European Tour prior to coming over to the PGA.
Robert Streb | $6,100 – I don’t know what to do with Streb. He’s only played here once and finished T22 in 2013. He started the season quickly, but has slowed considerably in his last four tournaments with two missed cuts, a T59 and a T56. He has the game for the course (35th in GIR, 11th in par four scoring), but his form scares me. We know he can go low, but something isn’t working in his game right now. He could right the ship this week and those who roster him could benefit. If you want to play the odds, Streb’s salary places him five spots below where he should be based on his odds to win the tournament.
Angel Cabrera | $5,900 – If the SHO is a proxy for the Masters, then you have to consider Senor Cabrera. In his last three trips here, he has two top 25s and has made the cut each year. He’s missed his last two cuts on tour, but that seems to be his way. He’s missed the cut in the tournament prior to the SHO each of the last three years and gone on to make the cut here each of those years.
Jeff Overton | $5,800 – Overton has played the SHO in the last three years and has made the cut each of those years including a T4 in 2012. He’s made four cuts in a row and has gone T7, T27, T63 and T50 in those four tournaments. He’s a safe play with limited upside.
Michael Putnam | $5,100 – Putnam returns to tee it up again with his younger brother Andrew. Andrew missed the cut here last year, but Michael scored a T24. He’s played here three of the last four years and made the cut twice finishing T24 both times. He’s made four straight cuts and played relatively well last week at the Valero until Sunday. He bombed out with a final round 83 to drop to 75th overall.
Jim Herman | $5,000 – Herman has missed the cut the last two years here, but did have a T14 in 2012. However, his spot on the GIR leader board piques my interest. Herman currently sits ninth in that statistic as well as second in ball striking. He’s in poor form (missed three of the last four cuts), but it wasn’t too long ago when he put together a T7 at the Honda so he can go low.
Ben Crane | $ 5,000 – Crane hasn’t missed a cut at the SHO since 2009 with his worst finish being last year with his T43. He’s got three top 25 finishes in that time. However, Crane’s form is horrific as he’s missed five of six cuts with the only weekend seeing him finish T68 at the Honda. If you want to risk it, Crane’s course history gives you a ledge to grab hold of.
Good luck this week! Head over to DraftKings to choose your squad for this week.
DraftKings Scoring
Roster size: 6 Golfers
POINT SCORING
Golfers on each team will accumulate points as follows:
- Per Hole Scoring
- Double Eagle (DBL EAG): +20 PTs
- Eagle (EAG): +8 PTs
- Birdie (BIR): +3 PTs
- Par (PAR): +0.5 PTs
- Bogey (BOG): -0.5 PTs
- Double Bogey (DBL BOG): -1 PT
- Worse than Double Bogey (WORSE DBL BOG): -1 PT
- Tournament Finish Scoring
- 1st: 30 PTs
- 2nd: 20 PTs
- 3rd: 18 PTs
- 4th: 16 PTs
- 5th: 14 PTs
- 6th: 12 PTs
- 7th: 10 PTs
- 8th: 9 PTs
- 9th: 8 PTs
- 10th: 7 PTs
- 11th–15th: 6 PTs
- 16th–20th: 5 PTs
- 21st–25th: 4 PTs
- 26th–30th: 3 PTs
- 31st–40th: 2 PTs
- 41st-50th: 1 PTs
- Streaks and Bonuses
- Streak of 3 Birdies of Better (MAX 1 Per Round) (3+ BIR STRK): +3 PTs
- Bogey Free Round (BOG FREE RD): +3 PTs
- All 4 Rounds Under 70 Strokes (ALL 4 RDS UND 70): +5 PTs
- Hole in One (HOLE IN ONE): +10 PTs
Scoring Notes: Ties for a finishing position will not reduce or average down points. For example, if 2 golfers tie for 3rd place, each will receive the 18 fantasy points for the 3rd place finish result. Playoff Holes will not count towards final scoring, with the exception of the “finishing position” scoring. For example, the golfer who wins the tournament will receive the sole award of 1st place points, but will not accrue points for their scoring result in the individual playoff holes.
Player Lock Notes: All golfers lock at the time the first golfer tees off on day 1 of an event.
Full rules are located here for DraftKings golf.