2014 Fantasy GolfChris Garosi

Daily Fantasy Golf Strategy: The Honda Classic

We are back this week for another look at Daily Fantasy PGA at DraftKings. We had a solid week last week and my call on Vijay Singh almost led to a victory, but he still provided excellent value at a near minimum salary. Let’s see if I can help you out this week.

This week’s tournament is The Honda Classic played at PGA National. As we continue to dig out from underneath mountains of snow in the East, our jealous eyes turn south to Florida.

It’s a great week to check out DraftKings as they have some top notch contests. Come on over and take a look.

Tour Stop

The tour stop this week is The Honda Classic played on the PGA National Resort & Spa – Champion Course in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. We have departed California so it is time to ignore our California-only golfers and focus now on those players who succeed in Florida and the bermudagrass greens. Floridians as well as South Africans and Australians all have experience playing on these greens as does just about anyone who calls the Southeast United States his home. There was a slight redesign in 2014 (and I’ll let the PGA explain it):

“Celebration Bermuda grass, redesign of the par-4 14th hole leading up to the infamous Bear Trap with the addition of more water and bunkers, and the expansion of No. 1, No. 9, No. 15 and No. 17 to their original size).”

The par 70, 7,110 yard course has been the host since 2007 so course history will be limited to the last eight years. The course is an all-around difficult one so we’ll focus on players who will keep the ball in play as going off course will offer penalties that are more onerous than easier courses.

Fun fact: There have been three first time winners on tour at the Honda Classic since the move to PGA National in 2007. Could this year bring a fourth?

Field

Tiger Woods will not tee it up this week and it’s not clear when we’ll see him again. However, we have a star-studded field for the opening tourney of the Florida Swing with 16 of the current top 25 in world golf rankings teeing it up this week.

We get the 2015 U.S. debuts of Rory McIroy and Martin Kaymer so the Euros are slowly making their way across the Atlantic in preparation for the Masters. The full field can be found here.

Hideki Matsuyama withdrew on Monday so make sure he’s not in any of your lineups.

Also, thanks to GolfOdds.com for the odds this week. If you’d like to see a second set of odds, check out the Betting Zone’s odds here – just click on this week’s tournament on the left hand pane.

Past Tournament Results

2014 Winner: Russell Henley won a four-man playoff (against another Russell (Knox), Rory McIlroy and Ryan Palmer). That’s a star-studded foursome though only Palmer broke 70 on Sunday. Henley is back to defend his crown. A list of past winners can be found here.

Here is the top 20 from last year’s tournament

2014 Honda Classic Top 20
2014 Honda Classic Top 20

DraftKings Expert Picks

Daniel Berger | $7,000 – Berger won the 2009 the Future Collegians World Tour (FCWT) National Championship at PGA National Golf Club. The Honda Classic is held at the PGA National Golf Club. Hmmm…Berger hasn’t played this tourney, but has some familiarity with the resort. And he’s playing well with four top 25 finishes in his last five tournaments including a tie for tenth at Pebble two weeks ago. Oh, he was born in Florida, grew up in Florida, went to Florida State for two years and lives in Florida (you’ll hear about a few more Floridians as we move along this week).

Keegan Bradley | $9,800 – Bradley missed the cut in his first shot at the Honda Classic in 2011. Since then, he’s gone tie for 12th, tie for fourth and tie for 12th. He picked up a tie for fourth last week at the Northern Trust Open (NTO) and hasn’t missed a cut since the PGA Championship in August 2014. He was born in Vermont, but he now lives in Jupiter, Florida

Paul Casey | $8,400 – Casey came out of nowhere (missed his last two cuts) to finish in a tie for second at the NTO. To say Casey came out of nowhere is a bit misleading as he was a top 10 player in OWGR back in 2009 and 2010. He hasn’t been elite since then, but he’s a good player who still has some greatness left in him. Since 2007, he’s played the Honda three times and has a tie for fourth (2010), a missed cut (2013) and a tie for 12th (2014).

Alex Čejka | $4,600 – The 44-year old Čejka has made back to back cuts and three out of his last four. He hasn’t played here since 2011, but his record from 2007 onward was cut, tie for seventh, tie for 13th, tie for 26th and tie for 36th. So, he’s trending (history-wise) in the wrong way, but he’ll be a cheap option who is in solid form.

Erik Compton | $5,800 – Compton was born in Miami, played his college golf at the University of Georgia and now resides back outside of Miami. So, he’s familiar with the greens at PGA National as evidenced by his four for four streak at the Honda. He struggled here last year, but did finish tied for fourth in 2013. He is out of form (missed his last three cuts), but this is the stretch of the PGA Tour where he shines.

Ben Crane | $4,800 – Seven for seven in cuts made at the Honda, Crane is a tortoise on the course, but has history on his side as he returns to the Tour. He is completely out of form having missed three straight cuts since his tie for 29th at the Hyundai. Hopefully a familiar course will awaken Crane this week. Fun fact: Crane holds the tournament record for average low score in the second round at 67.29 (for those with three or more tourney appearances).

Victor Dubuisson | $8,000 – The 17th ranked player in the world was to tee it up last week at the Northern Trust, but withdraw and sat out the week. His last tournament was the Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship where he finished in a tie for fourth. He has not played this tournament previously, so using him this week means you are counting on his form to carry over the Atlantic.

Matt Every | $5,100 – Every finally showed some life last week making the cut at the NTO though he stumbled to a tie for 49th. The Florida native who played his high school and college (University of Florida) golf in the state has a spotty record here, with two cuts made in four appearances. However, both of those made cuts turned into top 30 finishes. So, if you believe he figured something out last week, he’s a solid lower priced option.

Derek Fathauer | $4,800 – Fathauer spent some time in the lead at the Northern Trust Open last week. He’s Florida born and bred (though he went to college at the University of Louisville). He won the 2014 Web.com Tour Championship which was played in Florida at the TPC Sawgrass, Dye’s Valley Course in Ponte Vedra. He’s played the Honda twice and made the cut twice, but never finished higher than a tie for 58th place.

Rickie Fowler | $9,700 – Fowler is three for five in cuts made here, but his two missed cuts were his first two years at the Honda Classic. Fowler has lived in Jupiter, Florida since 2010 so he is familiar with bermudagrass greens like those on PGA National. We haven’t’ seen him since the Farmers where he imploded on Sunday to finish in a tie for 61st. Hopefully the time off has allowed him to work on his game and get back to the Fowler we saw at the end of 2014.

Luke Guthrie | $5,800 – Guthrie isn’t currently playing very well as his five starts in 2015 have gone 85th, missed cut, tie for 59th, tie for 61st and missed cut last week at the NTO. However, his short (two appearances) course history here forces me to add him as a dark horse contender. He finished third in 2013 and a tie for 24th last year though he came into each of those years with much better recent performances.

Adam Hadwin | $4,500 – The Canadian PGA Tour rookie has quietly performed quite well on two tough courses handing in a tie for 32nd at the Farmers and a tie for 22nd at the Northern Trust. He closed last week with a final round 69 to move up 17 spots on Sunday. He’s made eight of ten cuts in his rookie campaign and looks to be in solid form after a bumpy run of three missed cuts in four tournaments.

Brian Harman | $6,800 – Harman holds the course record on the Champion Course at PGA National with a 62 in 2012 when he finished in a tie for 12th. So he’s got that going for him, which is nice. He’s shown up here three times and made the cut twice. He’s coming off a missed cut at the NTO last week after blowing up Thursday. He’s a dark horse candidate for the week.

Russell Henley | $8,300 – Henley won the Honda Classic last year and is back to defend his title. He picked up a top 15 finish in his other start here. He hasn’t shown much lately as he struggled in his two west coast tournaments. You’re banking on his course history overriding any current struggles.

Freddie Jacobson | $7,200 – Jacobson has three top 25 finishes in his last four trips to the Honda and five in his last six. Jacobson has made two of three cuts in 2015 with a tie for seventh at the Waste Management being his best finish of the year.

Martin Kaymer | $9,900 – Welcome to America Mr. Kaymer. Kaymer has played here the last two years and missed the cut last year. This is his first time teeing it up on the PGA Tour in 2015, but his last two tourneys (Dubai and Abu Dhabi) saw Kaymer finish in the top five. He’s a marquee player who has a poor course history. If that excites you at this price point, feel free to jump in. I’ll look elsewhere.

Russell Knox | $7,600 – Knox’s only appearance at the Honda Classic was last year where he finished in a tie for second. Knox is Scottish, but that doesn’t mean he lives there now! He played his college golf at Jacksonville University and lives in Jacksonville Beach, Florida. He’s been up and down this year alternating cuts with top 15 finishes in his for PGA Tour stops in 2015.

Brooks Koepka | $9,500 – The Florida native (and Florida State graduate) returns to the Honda for a second straight appearance. He played last year on a sponsor’s exemption (tied for 33 rd), but there is no need for that this year. He’s played two tourneys in 2015 with a win at the Waste Management Open as the highlight.

Will MacKenzie | $7,200 – MacKenzie took three years off from the Honda before finishing in a tie for sixth last year. Prior to 2014, he had back to back top 15 finishes in 2009 and 2010 at the Honda. We haven’t seen him on the PGA Tour in 2015, though his last time out at the OHL Classic he shot a final round 66 to finish in a tie for ninth. He was nursing a hand injury earlier in the year, so make sure he’s in the tourney before slotting him in your lineup.

Graeme McDowell | $9,600 – McDowell had three straight top 10 finishes before his tie for 46th last week. He’s made the cut in each of his six trips to Honda Classic. McDowell has been solid this season with three cuts made and two top 10 finishes.

George McNeill | $6,300 – The Florida native has made five cuts in eight appearances at the Honda. He grew up in Florida and played his college golf at Florida State University. He’s got two top 15 finishes since 2007 including last year’s tie for 12th.

Rory McIroy | $15,700 – Well, you have to talk about the world’s number one player, don’t you? Rory’s made five of six cuts here (his only miss with a withdrawal in 2013). He won in 2012 and finished in a tie for second in 2014. He’s a stud and is priced accordingly. You will need to have some cheapies if you want to roster McIlroy.

Ryan Palmer | $9,300 – The only player with all four rounds under 70 here last year, Palmer returns to attempt to build on that success. He’s made five of six cuts at the Honda since 2007. He took last week off after missing the cut at Pebble Beach. However, in his four other tourneys this season, he’s placed no lower than a tie for 22nd. He may not be on the top of everyone’s list based on his last couple of weeks, but he’s a premium player.

John Peterson | $5,600 – Peterson missed the cut last year in his only trek to the Honda Classic (and he’d been DQ’d the prior week after not posting for the restart of round one due to illness). But, putting him on this list is about his current form as he’s eight for nine in cuts made with his only miss last week at the NTO. He might be off the radar for some with that missed cut, but I expect a bounce back.

Justin Rose | $10,800 – Rose withdrew from this tournament last year, but before that he’d played here three of the four prior years and finished in the top five each of those tournaments. He missed the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open, but had success on the European Tour in 2015 prior to coming to the States.

Paul Scaletta | $3,600 – Scaletta is the 2014 South Florida PGA Player of the Year. As a result, he gained entry to this year’s Honda Classic. He is the South Florida PGA assistant professional at The Bear’s Club in Jupiter, Florida (where he was also born – not at the club, in the city). He’s never made a cut in his two PGA tour events. But, you want a unicorn, you’ve got one – he’s the cheapest option on the board.

Charl Schwartzel | $8,600 – Charl let me down last week at the NTO, but I can never be mad at him. He did miss the cut last year at the Honda, but he has three top 15 finishes in his other three appearances at PGA National.

Vijay Singh | $6,300 – Singh faltered on Sunday, but he was on the leader board for nearly the entire tournament last week. He’s now made back to back to cuts and heads to the Honda where he had success prior to the move to PGA National, but does have a tie for fourth in 2010. Perhaps he’s found the fountain of youth?

Brendan Steele | $7,400 – Steele stumbled out of the gate to an opening round 74 last week, but he righted the ship to finish 70-69-69 to finish in a tie for 14th. He hasn’t missed the cut here in four tries, but his best finish is a tie for 33 rd (last year). He has yet to miss a cut this season in eight starts.

Chris Stroud | $6,900 – Stroud has finished in the top 15 each of his last three trips to the Honda and has made the cut the last six years. He made the cut at Pebble Beach and the Northern Trust so he’s been solid on tour the last couples of weeks.

Justin Thomas | $7,800 – Thomas has no course history, but his form in 2015 has been spectacular making four of five cuts and picking up three top 20 finishes. He was in great position last week heading into the weekend in second place until faltering to twin 75s on Saturday and Sunday.

Boo Weekley | $6,500 – Stop me if you’ve heard this before – born in Florida, still lives in Florida. He lost in a playoff in 2007 in the first Honda at the PGA National. He’s only sniffed the top 25 once more in this total of nine appearances at the Honda Classic. Weekley comes in playing quite well with his last missed cut back in October at the McGladrey and two top ten finishes on the season.

Lee Westwood | $9,300 – Westwood, much like Graeme McDowell, owned the Honda prior to a tie for 46th last year. He had finished ninth, 29th, ninth and fourth in his four prior appearances. Westwood comes in very hot with a tie for fifth and tie for ninth in his last two tourneys where’s he’s struggled on Sundays both weeks. He also closed out 2014 with a victory at the Thailand Golf Championship.

Camilo Villegas | $6,400 – Born in Colombia, but now residing in Jupiter and Gainesville, Florida residences, Villegas is a “Florida golfer” for our purposes. He won here in 2010, lost in a playoff in 2007. He muddled along as he struggled with his game after 2010 (even losing his Tour card). But, he made the cut last year and looked solid at the NTO last week en route to a tie for 30th.

Good luck this week! Head over to DraftKings to choose your squad for this week.

DraftKings Scoring

Roster size: 6 Golfers

POINT SCORING

Golfers on each team will accumulate points as follows:

  • Per Hole Scoring
    • Double Eagle (DBL EAG): +20 PTs
    • Eagle (EAG): +8 PTs
    • Birdie (BIR): +3 PTs
    • Par (PAR): +0.5 PTs
    • Bogey (BOG): -0.5 PTs
    • Double Bogey (DBL BOG): -1 PT
    • Worse than Double Bogey (WORSE DBL BOG): -1 PT
  • Tournament Finish Scoring
    • 1st: 30 PTs
    • 2nd: 20 PTs
    • 3rd: 18 PTs
    • 4th: 16 PTs
    • 5th: 14 PTs
    • 6th: 12 PTs
    • 7th: 10 PTs
    • 8th: 9 PTs
    • 9th: 8 PTs
    • 10th: 7 PTs
    • 11th–15th: 6 PTs
    • 16th–20th: 5 PTs
    • 21st–25th: 4 PTs
    • 26th–30th: 3 PTs
    • 31st–40th: 2 PTs
    • 41st-50th: 1 PTs
  • Streaks and Bonuses
    • Streak of 3 Birdies of Better (MAX 1 Per Round) (3+ BIR STRK): +3 PTs
    • Bogey Free Round (BOG FREE RD): +3 PTs
    • All 4 Rounds Under 70 Strokes (ALL 4 RDS UND 70): +5 PTs
    • Hole in One (HOLE IN ONE): +10 PTs

Scoring Notes: Ties for a finishing position will not reduce or average down points. For example, if 2 golfers tie for 3rd place, each will receive the 18 fantasy points for the 3rd place finish result. Playoff Holes will not count towards final scoring, with the exception of the “finishing position” scoring. For example, the golfer who wins the tournament will receive the sole award of 1st place points, but will not accrue points for their scoring result in the individual playoff holes.

Player Lock Notes: All golfers lock at the time the first golfer tees off on day 1 of an event.

Full rules are located here for DraftKings golf.

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2 Comments

  1. February 24, 2015 at 9:19 am

    Do you only list 30 or so picks or do you narrow down to 6 man teams for your expert picks?

    • February 25, 2015 at 7:47 am

      Hi Sam – Thanks for reading.
      I like to give multiple options at multiple price points based on a variety of factors. Some people like to chase course history. Others like to chase current form. Still others like to look at Tour statistics to build a team.
      I try to take all of those factors into account and provide a set of players I’d feel comfortable with for the week in any lineup. Some are

      Some are bigger risks than others (see Paul Scalletta), but some check multiple boxes (like Chris Stroud).

      I’ll usually run multiple lineups on DKs with the same two or three guys I believe are the best values and then mix and match with other players from the list.
      – Chris