2015 Fantasy GolfChris Garosi

Daily Fantasy Golf Strategy: The Puerto Rico Open

It’s off to Puerto Rico for our next Tour stop as we slog toward the Masters. Augusta can’t come soon enough! DraftKings has released their pricing for the Masters so you can start your research now as we “watch” the Puerto Rico Open.Our friends at DraftKings continue to roll out some fantastic contests. And I’m here to help you win some dough.

It’s a great week to check out DraftKings as they have some top notch contests.

Come on over and take a look.

Tour Stop

The Puerto Rico Open at Coco Beach is held at the Coco Beach Golf & Country Club in Rio Grande, Puerto Rico. The course runs 7,506 yards and comes in at par-72. The event will be contested on paspalum greens which we see in events like the CIMB Classic, OHL Classic at Mayakoba as well as the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island.

The weather looks like it will play a part in this week’s event. We have a chance of rain each day and the wind should be up the whole week. Check back on Wednesday night to see if there is an advantage to one set of tee times over another.

Scorecard breakdown: The pros play the Championship Course which is a par 72 course so we have four par 3s, four par 5s and 10 pars on the course.

Field

It’s a smaller field of just 132 golfers and there are a lot of guys you’ve never heard of. There are some I’ve never heard of. The DK salary pool has 128 of those 132 starters available to us. Be careful as Jeff Overton has withdrawn but is still in the DK system.

The full field can be found here.

Also, thanks to GolfOdds.com for the odds this week. If you’d like to see a second set of odds, check out the Betting Zone’s odds here – just click on this week’s tournament on the left hand pane.

Past Tournament Results

The Coco Beach Golf & Country Club has hosted the Puerto Rico Open since its inception in 2008. The course name changed this year as the club went bankrupt and removed the Trump name.

So, here is the top 50 for the last three years:

2016_Puerto_Rico_Open_Last_3_top_50

Statistical Review

Let’s take a look at the statistical angles in for this week’s tournament. We aren’t going to get too cute. This is basically a Web.com Tour event masquerading as a PGA Tour stop.

Birdie or Better Percentage (BOB%): We need golfers who can score anywhere at any time.  

Bogey Avoidance (BA): And if this is going to be a birdiefest, we want to stay out of trouble as much as possible.

Par 4 scoring (P4S): This will be my tiebreaker this week. Since the event started in 2008, the leader in par scoring has finished no worse than third.

And each week, we’ll look at Strokes Gained: Putting (SG:P) and Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (SG:T2G).

DraftKings Expert Picks

Graham DeLaet | $11,000 – For a guy (me) who never plays DeLaet ever, I guess we have to consider him this week. He’s played here three times (not since 2013) with three top 25 finishes. 

Scott Brown | $10,900 – Brown is four for four in cuts made with a win in 2013 and two other top 10s. He has also made four straight cuts made on the PGA Tour. He’s my favorite to win this week.

William McGirt | $10,500 – McGirt is the best option this week based on my statistical analysis of the 2016 season.  He’s made both cuts here in his only two trips including a top finish of T14 in 2012. McGirt has four top 25 finishes in seven 2016 events.

Freddie Jacobson | $10,400 – The Swede made his only start here in 2011 and finished T14. His profile works even if he doesn’t usually put up a ton of birdies.

Ian Poulter | $10,300 – This is the kind of tournament that Poulter either wins because his pedigree is so much better than everyone else here or he craters on Thursday and withdraws. I’ll take the latter and pass on Poulter.

Patrick Rodgers | $10,200 – Rodgers will be popular this week so he’s probably not worth a play in GPPs.  He made the cut last week (T20) after missing three weekends in a row. His profile is good enough to challenge for the win.

George McNeill | $10,100 – McNeill has made four of four cuts here including a win in 2012 and two other top 20 finishes. McNeill has made just two of six cuts on the season. History versus current form (we’ll see a lot of that this week), but I’ll lean toward history ruling the day here.

George Coetzee | $10,000 – The South African won a few weeks ago at the Dimension Data Pro-Am and has made seven straight worldwide cuts. He could make some noise in his debut at this event this week.

Boo Weekley | $9,900 – Another current form versus course history decision to make comes with Weekley. Weekley has three top 10s in his last three starts at the Puerto Rico Open over the last four years. The native Floridian finished in the top 20 at the OHL Classic and RSM Classic which are both played on similar style courses. Like McNeill I’ll lean that his history here overrides poor current form.

Chesson Hadley | $9,800 – Hadley won here in his debut in 2014 and backed that up with a T16 last year. Yet another course history versus form. However, Hadley’s form is really, really bad. He has only one top 25 finish (at the Honda) in his last 25 events.

Retief Goosen | $9,700 – Goosen has been solid on Tour this year with five straight cuts and six of seven overall in 2016. He’s one of the few people we’ve heard of in the field. He makes his debut here.

Luke Donald | $9,600 – See Poulter, Ian. Pass.

Alex Cejka | $9,500 – Cejka is back to defend his title. His record here is uneven – three of five cuts made. He’s played well at other events held on similar courses.

Dean Burmester | $9,400 – Who? Don’t worry, I didn’t know who he was either until I started researching for this week. He won four times on the South African Tour in 2015 and has back to back second place finishes in 2016. Tony Finau and Jerry Kelly will be heavily owned so you could turn to Dean in GPPs.

Jerry Kelly | $9,300 – Kelly will be popular. Kelly has made five of seven cuts at the Puerto Rico Open though much of his success came in the first two years of the tournament (T2 and T9). But, his profile works and he’s one of the bigger names in the even this year.

Tony Finau | $9,200 – Finau will be popular. Wait. Where have I heard that before? He’s never played here before and he’s struggled for much of 2016 before finally making the cut last week at the API. If this was 2015, Finau would be $15,000 and I’d still own him. It’s not 2015, but I still think Finau does well here.

Jonathan Byrd | $9,000 – Byrd will probably be in all of my lineups. Byrd has played here three times and finished in the top 20 each of those three trips. He comes in playing well with two top five finishes in his four 2016 tourneys across the Web.com and PGA Tours.

Seung-yul Noh | $8,900 – Noh is another GPP option this week. He can score with anyone, but can also get into trouble. He’s playing well with six of seven cuts made in 2016 on the PGA Tour. He’s played here twice with a  top finish of T25 in 2012.

Cameron Smith | $8,700 – You know me. I dig Cameron Smith and this week is no different. I’ll roster him more than you will. He should be able to handle the windy conditions and has made three cuts in a row on Tour.

Luke List | $8,600 – List is three of eight in cuts made in 2016, but all of those finishes have been in the top 20. GPP option this week.

Jon Curran | $8,400 – Curran has played the Puerto Rico open twice finishing T24 and T2 (last year). His current form is off with three of eight cuts made this year on Tour. Hes played well at the RSM Classic and OHL Classic which are similar in terms of greens and weather to the Puerto Rico Open.

Jeff Overton | $8,200 – Withdrew

Hiroshi Iwata | $8,100 – Iwata finished T33 at the Valspar his last time out and was T4 at another Oceanside event (Pebble Beach). Much of the reason we like Iwata this week is he’ll be low-owned and has top 10 upside in his Puerto Rico Open debut.

Kyle Stanley | $8,000 – Stanley’s only trip here was in 2011 and he finished T28. He’s made six of seven cuts on the PGA Tour this year and is in form unlike just about everyone else in this field.

Sam Saunders | $7,900– Saunders’ debuted here and lost in a playoff to finish T2. He disappointed DFSers worldwide last week by missing the cut at his grandfather’s event. But, he’d had two straight cuts made and was T29 at the OHL Classic this year.

Derek Fathauer | $7,800 – Fathauer had his best finish of 2016 with a T12 at the Arnold Palmer last week. He missed the cut here last year and finished T69 in his only other trip here. However, his profile is good and he finished fourth at the 2015 OHL Classic at Mayakoba.

Bryce Molder | $7,700 – Molder’s missed cut last year here concerns me as I think the weather could be an issue again this week.

Aaron Baddeley | $7,600 – Baddeley’s statistical profile this season is rated in the top five of the players in this event. That profile is built on his putting and bogey avoidance which can come and go. This is his first time here, but if gets windy as I expect this Aussie should be able to handle it.

David Toms | $7,500 – Toms withdrew last year at Puerto Rico, but finished T4 two years ago. He comes in playing below his normal standards, but it may not matter in a field this weak.

Kyle Reifers | $7,500 – Reifers has had success at some of the “sister” courses and he’s played here once finishing T48 in 2012. He’s in solid form and should be a safe play in cash games.

Will MacKenzie | $7,400 – MacKenzie made the cut in all three of his trips to Rio Grande including a T6 last year. He’s also done well at the OHL Classic and RSM Classic so he should feel comfortable here.

Jhonattan Vegas | $7,400 – Vegas is going to surprise one week and this might just be the week. He hasn’t had much success at the PR Open in three starts, but his game looks improved this year.

Brendon de Jonge | $7,300 – If you believe in course history then de Jonge is your man. If you believe in current form, de Jonge shouldn’t be near your roster.

Morgan Hoffmann | $7,200 – Finished T14 in 2013 at the PR Open, but missed the cut the following year. His form is off.

Chris Stroud | $7,100 – Stroud has made the cut the last three years and finished no worse than T27 (last year). His form is poor, but his history here may allow him to overcome his recent issues. 

Gregory Bourdy | $7,000 – No one will own Bourdy and that means he’s an excellent value in GPPs. He has made five of seven cuts in 2016 on the European Tour. The Frenchman is usually in the top 40 on the Euro Tour in scoring average and his accurate off the tee.

John Merrick | $7,000 – Merrick is five for five in cuts made at the Peurto Rico Open with four top 25s including a T22 last year. He’s also an Aussie and that should help him here this week. He has two top 20s on the Web.com Tour this year, though he missed last week’s.

Michael Thompson | $6,900 – Thompson has made the cut in both of his starts at the Puerto Rico Open with a T14 in 2011 as his best finish. He is currently 49th in BOB% and 130th in Bogey Avoidance. So, he’s high risk, high reward. He’s made four of five cuts on the PGA Tour in 2015 and did finish T34 at the OHL Classic in late 2015.

Luke Guthrie | $6,900 – T18 in his only trip to Rio Grande in 2013. His profile is one of the better in the field though that’s not saying much.

Brendon Todd | $6,500 – Todd may have the worst current form of any player in the tournament. But if look just one year back, Todd has one of the best profiles in the field. He’s made the cut in each of his two trips here with a T14 in 2012 as his best finish.

Fabrizio Zanotti | $6,400 – Finished T27 here last year and is from Paraguay. That’s about all I’ve got.

Peter Malnati | $6,400 – Malnati finished fifth in birdie average on the Web.com Tour last year so he can score on courses like this. His game is carried by his putter and finished T14 in his only trip to Coco Beach in 2014.

Dawie Van Der Walt | $6,300 – The South African makes his debut at the Puerto Rico Open this week. When we look at his Web.com stats from last year they fit the course perfectly. He’s made four of seven cuts in 2016 this year on the PGA Tour and finished T17 at the OHL Classic this year.

Mark Hubbard | $6,200 – Oddly, Hubbard’s price didn’t increase in an event where a lot of lesser names appear. He’s been popular as a cut make this year in DFS cash lineups. He finished T27 here last year in his debut.

Tyrone Van Aswegen | $6,200 – Van Aswegen is like Hubbard in that he’s been a popular DFS pick this year and his price didn’t jump up this week. He’s two for two in cuts made here with a top finish of T37 two years ago.

Wes Roach | $6,000 – Roach’s Web.com stats suggests he should do well this week. Roach made the cut at the OHL Classic this year and finished T14 last week on the Web.com Tour. He’s seen the course twice and finished T4 in 2012

Kelly Kraft | $5,800 – Kraft debuts here this week, but his Web.com profile implies he can do some damage here. He finished T14 last week on the Web.com Tour just like Roach.

Brice Garnett | $5,700 – Garnett debuted here two years ago and finished T72 and finished last year at T38. Garnett is 8th in SG:P, 39th in BOB% and 95th in Bogey Avoidance in 2016 on the PGA Tour – a profile that works. He was seventh at the OHL Classic on similar greens.

Henrik Norlander | $5,700 – Look here – another Web.com graduate with a profile that should work here. He played here once in 2013 and finished T57.

Michael Kim | $5,700 – And another Web.com Tour grad! Kim finished fourth in both birdie average and bogey avoidance.

Rod Pampling | $5,600 – Wind and Australian players seem to mix well and that’s the angle in on Pampling. He was T10 at the Puerto Rico Open last year in poor weather and that makes him an option this week.

John Daly | $5,400 – You’re going to have Daly in at least one lineup. I know you will. He’s made the cut in four of five trips and he was T10 here last year.

Michael Bradley | $5,400 – I don’t think we’ll ever find a two-time winner of any event this far down the salary list. He hasn’t done anything great since those two wins at the Puerto Rico Open, but he’s cheap.

D.H. Lee | $4,800 – Lee finished last year on the Web.com Tour in first at Bogey Avoidance and 30th in birdie average. However, the South Korean has struggled lately on Tour and hasn’t made a cut since the OHL Classic (T51).

Alan Morin | $4,700 – Looks like an accountant.

Max Alverio | $4,700 – Plays here nearly every year. Misses the cut every year.

Miguel Suarez | $4,700 – Suarez heads up the Puerto Rico National Junior Program. He’s played here seven times and made the cut just once. The results? A T61 in 2008.

Jorge Fernandez Valdes | $4,700 – Who? Exactly. Valdes makes his debut at the Puerto Rico Open this year, but the Argentinian piqued my interest when I saw he drives the ball a ton. He finished the 2015 Web.com Tour at 10th in birdie average (68th in Bogey Avoidance).  He’s He made the cut last week on the Web.com Tour to finish T41, but his current form is otherwise poor.

Frankie Capan | $4,700 – Capan is a high school sophomore from Minnesota. He’s here because he won the AJGA’s Puerto Rico Open earlier this year. He set the tournament scoring record with a 204 over three days.

Good luck this week! Head over to DraftKings to choose your squad for this week.

DraftKings Scoring

Roster size: 6 Golfers

POINT SCORING

Golfers on each team will accumulate points as follows:

  • Per Hole Scoring
    • Double Eagle (DBL EAG): +20 PTs
    • Eagle (EAG): +8 PTs
    • Birdie (BIR): +3 PTs
    • Par (PAR): +0.5 PTs
    • Bogey (BOG): -0.5 PTs
    • Double Bogey (DBL BOG): -1 PT
    • Worse than Double Bogey (WORSE DBL BOG): -1 PT
  • Tournament Finish Scoring
    • 1st: 30 PTs
    • 2nd: 20 PTs
    • 3rd: 18 PTs
    • 4th: 16 PTs
    • 5th: 14 PTs
    • 6th: 12 PTs
    • 7th: 10 PTs
    • 8th: 9 PTs
    • 9th: 8 PTs
    • 10th: 7 PTs
    • 11th–15th: 6 PTs
    • 16th–20th: 5 PTs
    • 21st–25th: 4 PTs
    • 26th–30th: 3 PTs
    • 31st–40th: 2 PTs
    • 41st-50th: 1 PTs
  • Streaks and Bonuses
    • Streak of 3 Birdies of Better (MAX 1 Per Round) (3+ BIR STRK): +3 PTs
    • Bogey Free Round (BOG FREE RD): +3 PTs
    • All 4 Rounds Under 70 Strokes (ALL 4 RDS UND 70): +5 PTs
    • Hole in One (HOLE IN ONE): +10 PTs

Scoring Notes: Ties for a finishing position will not reduce or average down points. For example, if 2 golfers tie for 3rd place, each will receive the 18 fantasy points for the 3rd place finish result. Playoff Holes will not count towards final scoring, with the exception of the “finishing position” scoring. For example, the golfer who wins the tournament will receive the sole award of 1st place points, but will not accrue points for their scoring result in the individual playoff holes.

Player Lock Notes: All golfers lock at the time the first golfer tees off on day 1 of an event.

Full rules are located here for DraftKings Daily Fantasy golf.

Previous post

2016 Fantasy Baseball: Breakout Candidate -- Danny Valencia

Next post

Outfielders: Like Him Less, Like Him More