Daily Fantasy Golf Strategy: The RBC Heritage
I hope that you were able to enjoy the Masters this past week. And now that DraftKings’ Daily Fantasy PGA golf has grabbed you, I’m here to help with your picks for the RBC Heritage Tournament at Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head, South Carolina.
It’s a great week to check out DraftKings as they have some top notch contests. Come on over and take a look.
Tour Stop
Harbour Town Golf Links is a 7,101 yards, par 71 layout – the first course from the mind of Jack Nicklaus (with design by Pete Dye). The course is short but still offers lots of challenges to golfers long and short. It is a tight course that tests players’ accuracy everywhere. And those who can’t stay on the course will have to scramble their way out of the woods.
The course always reminds me of the groundbreaking computer game Links 386 Pro (as Harbour Town was the course of choice on the game). Perhaps I’m showing my age. Let’s move on…
The RBC Heritage has been played at Harbour Town since its inception in 1969. Feel free to take a hole by hole tour.
The weather looks alright though we could be in for some rain early Thursday. The wind also doesn’t look like it will be much of a factor. However, the weather can change here quickly, and wind and rain can show up at almost any time. As always, continue to check up until lineup lock on Thursday.
Scorecard breakdown: Four (4) par threes, eleven (11) par fours and three (3) par fives. We only have three par fives which is not too surprising on a tight course like this. We want to see who can scorch the par fours this week.
Field
The field isn’t nearly as strong (though we are back to a full field) as we had last week at the Masters. We do have some star power here as Masters champ Jordan Spieth honors his commitment to a tournament that gave him a sponsor’s exemption in 2013. I’m not sure how much gas he’ll have left, but he’s young.
The full field can be found here. And if you want to see all of the players who are sponsored by the same sponsor (RBC) as the tournament, check here.
Will MacKenzie is on the DraftKings‘ roster but has withdrawn.
Thanks to GolfOdds.com for the odds this week. If you’d like to see a second set of odds, check out the Betting Zone’s odds here – just click on this week’s tournament on the left hand pane.
Past Tournament Results
2014 Winner: Matt Kuchar holed out on 18 on Sunday to defeat Luke Donald and claim the title. Kuch stormed the field on Sunday as he started Saturday four strokes back.
Here are the top 20s from last three years’ tournaments to give you a wider view of the recent course history.
Statistical Review
I’m going to focus on three statistics this week with two of them pointing towards accuracy. On a tight course I want to see players who can “keep it clean.”
Greens in Regulation (GIR) – With narrow fairways leading to tiny greens, you want players who can get onto those greens as quickly as possible.
Driving Accuracy – With tight fairways I want golfers that can keep the ball in the fairways and out of the trees, bushes and pine needles that line the fairways throughout the course.
Par 4 Scoring – With 11 par 4s on the course, I’d like to see a player who can score on the par 4s as there won’t be as many opportunities on the par 5s.
Beyond these three stats, I’ll want great putters because once you get onto those tiny greens you need to get off quickly and move on to the next hole.
Last year, Matt Kuchar finished 56th in driving distance, but T7 in driving accuracy, third in proximity to the hole and first in GIR. He also scrambled well (11th for the week).
DraftKings Expert Picks
Jordan Spieth | $12,500 – Do you want to bet against this guy right now? In his last three tourneys he’s finished second, T2 and WIN. He’s played here the last two years and has finished T9 and T12. The only reason you might not take him is because he’s tired from the win at the Masters and the associated trappings. He’s 21 – 21 year-olds don’t get tired. Could he withdraw? Perhaps. But, I don’t see much of a risk.
Patrick Reed | $11,000 – Reed’s history here (T71, T48 in his two appearances) shows his game isn’t quite made for this course. He currently sits 185th in driving accuracy though a respectable 84th in GIR due to his second place standing in scrambling. With other options that don’t have to rely on saves to stay on course I’ll look elsewhere this week.
Zach Johnson | $10,900 – I like Johnson a lot this week – I actually think he has the best chance to win the tournament. He has an up and down tournament history with eight cuts made in 10 trips with top two ten finishes including a solo second in 2012. He closed out the Masters with back to back 68s on the weekend to finish T9. He’s in great form with three straight top 20 finishes. He’s an accurate driver of the ball (21st in driving accuracy), but he’s struggled with his putting so far this year. I think he’s putting it together and should be at the top of your board this week.
Jim Furyk | $10,400 – Boring…that’s Furyk. Three top ten finishes in the last five years at Harbour Town including a win. He’s got seven top 10s overall here in 16 appearances. We know he won’t win as it seems he’s lost that gene that allows one to finish on Sunday, but a top 10 is certainly a possibility.
Ian Poulter | $10,000 – Poulter hit five more GIRs than any other golfer last week at the Masters. That skill will help him this week at Harbour Town as he heads back to the RBC for the first time since a T36 in 2011. He’s only played here four times and as made the cut each of those four times. He had a T6 back in 2004, but his current form is excellent.
Webb Simpson | $9,200 – Simpson missed last year but has a nice history with three top 15 finishes including a solo second the last time he was here in 2013. The North Carolina native has not played frequently this season, but does have three top 10s and a put up a respectable T28 at the Masters.
Matt Kuchar | $10,700 – Kuchar didn’t perform as well as we’d hoped at the Masters, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t ride him again this week. He won last year and has three top 25 finishes in the five tournaments. He’s an excellent putter (strokes gained: putting he’s 16th) and scrambler (eighth), so we are relying on those skills this week to make up for his mediocre accuracy (106th in driving accuracy) off the tee.
Louis Oosthuizen | $9,700 – Oosty tees it up for the first time here. So far on the season he’s either finished in the top 20 (six) or missed the cut (twice). He picked up a T19 at the Masters and sits 18th in GIR and 14th in par scoring. He has the tools to succeed even if he hasn’t played here previously.
Bill Haas | $9,500 – Haas has made only four of ten cuts at Harbour Town with his best finish at T24 in 2013. I’ll look somewhere else for my high end choices this week even after his T12 last week at the Masters.
Brandt Snedeker | $9,400 – Snedeker let me down at the Masters, but let’s look again. He won here in 2011 but has trended the wrong way since with a T17, T59 and T74. He’s got the putter to succeed (28th in strokes gained: putting) and can score on par fours (31st), so he’s got a shot to do well again if he can overcome the downward trend at the RBC.
Luke Donald | $9,300 – I think we have to fade Donald this week. He’s the ultimate horse for this course, but his form is awful. He’s missed four of the last seven cuts including last week at the Masters. He just doesn’t look right and I can’t take him even at a course five top three (!) finishes in the last six years. This could come back to bite me, but I think a lot of players will be on him in all formats.
Charley Hoffman | $9,200 – Hoffman is only overshadowed by Jordan Spieth in terms of current form with three straight finishes of T11 or better including a T9 at the Masters last week. He’s made four cuts in five trips to Harbour Town. He had back to back top 10 finishes before his T38 here last year. His form married to his course history makes him a great choice.
Russell Henley | $9,100 – Henley strode in to Harbour Town for the first time in 2013 and promptly finished T6. Then he missed the cut in 2014 and all hope was lost. Well, not really. He hasn’t missed a cut since the PGA last August a streak of 16 straight made cuts. He comes in playing well with a solo 21 at the Masters after a solo fourth at the Shell. He’s relatively accurate (80th in driving, 84th in GIR), but he’s a standout putter (15th in strokes gained: putting). He’ll make up for that missed cut last year.
Charl Schwartzel | $9,000 – Schwartzel’s first trip here last year was a success with a T12. However, in reviewing his statistical profile there is nothing that says he should succeed here. He’s off a T38 at the Masters last week, but hasn’t had a notable result since the Abu Dhabi in January.
Billy Horschel |$9,000 – A T9 in 2013 followed up with a T68 last year makes Horschel a bit of a conundrum. The stats say yes (59th in driving accuracy, 16th in GIR, 56th in strokes gained: putting and 86th in par 4 scoring. He missed the cut at the Masters but had a solo third at the Valero just a month ago. I heartily endorse Horschel this week based on his profile.
Graeme McDowell | $8,500 – McDowell has great recent course history with a win and T23 in his last two trips here. His current form is poor – in fact, since coming to the States to play at the Honda in early March he’s gone CUT, T56, CUT, WD, T52 (the Masters last week). He’s generally an accurate driver (12th last year on Tour) and was the best putter on tour last year. Accordingly, if you would like to learn more about some of the most popular types of drivers out there you can take a look at this source (golf drivers for high handicappers). He’s struggled this year with his tee to green game so the hope is that he’s righted himself a bit.
Kevin Streelman | $8,000 – Streelman comes in off the par 3 win at the Masters and an excellent T12 at the Masters. He’s made four straight cuts on tour and has two top 20s at the RBC. Accuracy off the tee (18th), can score on par fours (ninth overall) and gets to the green (17th in GIR) to offset his struggles with the putter (146th strokes gained: putting).
Pat Perez | $7,800 – If history is a guide, Perez should finish T18 this year as he has the last two years. He’s been top 20 in his last three trips to Harbour Town and is coming in off back to back top 20s on Tour. He’s a great pick at a great price.
Graham DeLaet | $7,700 – DeLaet has had an odd season as he’s withdrawn three times and had missed three cuts in a row prior to his T42 at the Shell Houston Open. DeLaet’s salary is six spots higher than it should be if we followed the odds strictly. He’s played here three times, missed the cut once and never finished better than T44.
Russell Knox | $7,300 – Knox’s maiden voyage produced a T9 last year. He missed the cut his last time out at the Valero but had three straight before that tourney. He’s 52nd in driving accuracy and 50th in strokes gained putting so he has the tools to succeed again this year.
Chesson Hadley | $7,100 – Hadley looks like quite the bargain until you start digging in to his profile. He’s not accurate off the tee nor does he scramble well so he’s going to struggle to get the ball to the green efficiently. He’s a great putter, but his accuracy mutes that ability. His salary is 11 spots higher than it should be when compared to his odds to win.
Martin Laird | $7,100 – Laird has made but one of four cuts in his treks to Harbour Town. And it doesn’t make sense. He’s a fairly accurate driver of the ball, can put relatively well and scores on par 4s. It’s not clear why he hasn’t succeeded here, but he’s worth the risk in some formats as he does have top 10s on the season.
Brendon Todd | $7,000 – Todd has appeared here twice and only made the cut once. His best finish is a T38. He missed the cut at the Masters but had made five straight cuts with his lowest finish T30 in that time. However, his statistical profile makes him a perfect fit for the course. He sits 17th in driving accuracy, 33rd in strokes gained: putting (23rd in total putting), ninth in scrambling and a respectable 86th in par four scoring.
Matt Every |$6,900 – Every has two top 15s, a missed cut and a T83 in his four trips here. My guess is that the putter has been the key (or death knell) for Every. He’s at 32nd strokes gained: putting but doesn’t bring a lot else. He could go low or he could go home on Friday.
Rory Sabbatini | $6,800 – Sabbatini has back to back T9 finishes here and hasn’t finished worse than T14 in his last five appearances over the last six years. He comes in struggling with four missed cuts in his last five tourneys; however his course history trumps any current issues. His form rarely influences his performance in this tournament.
John Huh | $6,700 – Huh missed the cut his first time around the cours but rebounded last year to come in a T3. Huh comes in hot with five straight cuts made with the only bump a T55 at the Arnold Palmer. His last time out he picked up a T17 at the Shell Houston Open. He’s an accurate driver of the ball (15th this year), good putter (18th in strokes gained: putting) and scrambler (21st this year).
Camilo Villegas | $6,500 – Villegas hasn’t missed the cut here since 2006. With back to back cuts missed, he likely won’t be on a lot of players’ short lists this week. His success here belies the statistical indicators and makes a good contrarian play.
Boo Weekley | $6,500 – Weekley won back to back titles in 2007 and 2008 at the RBC. He’s never missed a cut though he had his worst finish last year with a T53. He’s has done almost nothing recently with four missed cuts in his last five tournaments so you’re banking on course history here for Boo.
Ben Martin | $6,200 – Martin finished T3 and had a T56 in his only other appearance here in 2011. Martin’s odds to win are 18 spots higher than his salary offering a great value. He won back in October 2014 at the Shriners and also put up a solo fifth at the Arnold Palmer. He missed the cut last week at the Masters. He is ninth in GIR, 38th in driving accuracy and 38th in par 4 birdie or better leaders.
Brian Davis | $6,100 – Davis is eight for nine in cuts made here and had a solo second in 2010. He is 46th in driving accuracy and 44th in strokes gained: putting. He did put up a T10 at the Valspar earlier this year, but hasn’t done a ton outside of that tourney.
Aaron Baddeley | $6,000 – Baddeley won here in 2006 and then followed that up with another two top 10 finishes. Then, three straight top 25s for the next three years. However, his recent work isn’t anything to write home about as he’s missed the cut two of the last three years.
Carl Pettersson | $6,000 – Petterson won here in 2012 and has two other top 10 finishes in his 12 trips to Harbour Town. That win looks like an anomaly with his other recent results here. I don’t see any reason to roster him this week.
Jason Bohn | $5,800 – Bohn is 11th in driving accuracy, ninth in par 4 scoring and 32nd in GIR. He’s only five of nine in cuts made, but he profiles as player who should succeed at Harbour Town. He’s got two top 20s in his last three starts on Tour so he’s got sneaky written all over him.
Johnson Wagner | $5,700 – Wagner’s salary on DraftKings is 19 spots below where it should be based on his average odds to win. Beyond the value represented by that gap, he comes in off his best finish of the year a T2 at the Shell Houston Open losing in a playoff. He doesn’t have a great course history having made only two of five cuts here, but does have a T18 in 2013. He sits sixth in GIR, but doesn’t have a lot else going for him as he’s a pretty horrific putter.
Spencer Levin | $5,000 – Levin started his RBC career with three straight top 15s but has cooled since then finishing T37 and T38. He’s an accurate driver of the ball (16th) and sits 56th in par 4 scoring, but doesn’t bring much else to the table.
Stewart Cink | $4,800 – Old man Cink is still hitting the ball around the course and there aren’t many he likes better than Harbour Town. He’s made 13 of 15 cuts and has five top 10s (including a win) though many of those are deep in the rearview. You’re hoping for a revival if you roster him as his best finish of the season is a T31 at the Honda in early March.
Zac Blair | $4,700 – Blair is one of the few professional athletes who is smaller than I am. However, he’s a far better golfer. He’s never teed it up here, but he’s got a profile to make it work – 27th in driving accuracy, ninth in strokes gained: putting, 66th in proximity to the hole and 11th in scrambling. He has the largest gap in the field between odds to win and salary at 29 places. He didn’t play well in Texas, but did pick up a T21 at the Arnold Palmer.
Ken Duke | $4,500 – Duke has made the cut in each of six trips here and has four top 30s. There aren’t many with this course history this cheap. He’s 22nd in driving accuracy and 44th in strokes gained: putting so he should be able to make his way around the course safely.
Good luck this week! Head over to DraftKings to choose your squad for this week.
DraftKings Scoring
Roster size: 6 Golfers
POINT SCORING
Golfers on each team will accumulate points as follows:
- Per Hole Scoring
- Double Eagle (DBL EAG): +20 PTs
- Eagle (EAG): +8 PTs
- Birdie (BIR): +3 PTs
- Par (PAR): +0.5 PTs
- Bogey (BOG): -0.5 PTs
- Double Bogey (DBL BOG): -1 PT
- Worse than Double Bogey (WORSE DBL BOG): -1 PT
- Tournament Finish Scoring
- 1st: 30 PTs
- 2nd: 20 PTs
- 3rd: 18 PTs
- 4th: 16 PTs
- 5th: 14 PTs
- 6th: 12 PTs
- 7th: 10 PTs
- 8th: 9 PTs
- 9th: 8 PTs
- 10th: 7 PTs
- 11th–15th: 6 PTs
- 16th–20th: 5 PTs
- 21st–25th: 4 PTs
- 26th–30th: 3 PTs
- 31st–40th: 2 PTs
- 41st-50th: 1 PTs
- Streaks and Bonuses
- Streak of 3 Birdies of Better (MAX 1 Per Round) (3+ BIR STRK): +3 PTs
- Bogey Free Round (BOG FREE RD): +3 PTs
- All 4 Rounds Under 70 Strokes (ALL 4 RDS UND 70): +5 PTs
- Hole in One (HOLE IN ONE): +10 PTs
Scoring Notes: Ties for a finishing position will not reduce or average down points. For example, if 2 golfers tie for 3rd place, each will receive the 18 fantasy points for the 3rd place finish result. Playoff Holes will not count towards final scoring, with the exception of the “finishing position” scoring. For example, the golfer who wins the tournament will receive the sole award of 1st place points, but will not accrue points for their scoring result in the individual playoff holes.
Player Lock Notes: All golfers lock at the time the first golfer tees off on day 1 of an event.
Full rules are located here for DraftKings golf.