Daily Fantasy Golf Strategy: The Zurich Classic of New Orleans
I’m back again to provide daily fantasy golf picks for DraftKings’ PGA game. After another fine week at a tough course, we head to Louisiana for the Zurich Classic of New Orleans.
It’s a great week to check out DraftKings as they have some top notch contests. Come on over and take a look.
Tour Stop
This week we head just west of New Orleans to the TPC Louisiana a 7,425 yard, par 72 course built in 2004 by Pete Dye (who also designed last week’s course). As with any Dye course, there are quirks galore and the unexpected should be expected. The Zurich Classic of New Orleans has been played here every year since 2005 with the exception of 2006 when flooding precluded the use of the course.
The weather looks dodgy early Thursday with thunderstorms likely. The afternoon looks clear as does Friday though the wind picks up a bit. As always, continue to check up until lineup lock on Thursday, but we may want to steer away from early Thursday tee times and watch the wind on Friday.
The rough will be thicker than it has been the last couple of years due to the early rain in the area though this also means the greens will be truer.
Scorecard breakdown: Four (4) par threes, ten (10) par fours and four (4) par fives. We are back to the standard break hole break down. The course has some very short par fours with four of them coming in under 400 yards.
Field
It is a thin field at the top with only five of the top 20 in the Overall World Golf Rankings teeing it up here. Perhaps it’s because this tourney doesn’t give out a snazzy jacket like the last two. Perhaps we’ll never know.
The full field can be found here.
Thanks to GolfOdds.com for the odds this week. If you’d like to see a second set of odds, check out the Betting Zone’s odds here – just click on this week’s tournament on the left hand pane.
Past Tournament Results
2014 Winner: Seung-Yul Noh picked up the lead on Saturday and didn’t let it go en route to his maiden PGA victory. Amazingly, seven of the last ten winners at the Zurich won for the first time on tour. I wonder if we can find that player this week.
Here are the top 20s from the last three years’ tournaments to give you a wider view of the recent course history.
Statistical Review
This is an easy course (well, for some of you) and it’s a long course. So, I want bombers and I don’t care if they can find the fairway or not. The rough isn’t terribly challenging though there are numerous bunkers along the course. And if a player isn’t a bomber, he better be able to hit the fairways and get to the green expeditiously. Almost everyone will be able to putt well here as the greens are simple
Driving Distance – I want long hitters. Guys who can muscle up and crush the ball and perhaps cut through the wind if it kicks up.
Greens in Regulation (GIR) – Though I don’t care where the ball goes off the tee, I do want them to get to the green in a timely manner. So, for those less accurate drivers I’d like to see good…
Scrambling – You gotta get out of the mess you made.
Par 5 Scoring – With so many short par 4s, we should see a lot of the field able to score on them so we’ll focus on par 5s.
Last year, Noh finished third in driving distance, 11th in strokes gained: putting , third in scrambling, T4 in GIR and fifth in proximity to the hole. He was only a T59 in driving accuracy.
DraftKings Expert Picks
Dustin Johnson | $13,000 – DJ is back after taking a week off from his T6 at the Masters. He’s played seven times in 2015, missed two cuts and not finished worse than T6 in the five tourneys he’s made the weekend. He’s only played here once missing the cut in 2008. But he’s a bomber (first in driving distance) with some accuracy issues (GIR 132nd. However, few in the field are hotter than he is.
Jason Day | $12,300 – Day hasn’t played here since 2009, but any time he’s on the course he’s on my radar. He’s been good this year with a win at the Farmers and no finish worse than T31. He’s fifth in driving distance and 11th in GIR and can even putt a little (51 st in strokes gained: putting). He’s going to be tough to resist in a field that doesn’t have much star power.
Justin Rose | $11,900 – Rose is the man this week. Great course history (three straight top 15 finishes) and great current form (T37 at the Shell and T2 at the Masters) make him my top choice to win this week. It looks like his wrist injury is behind him. And his profile fits as he sits 36th in driving distance and 38th in GIR.
Harris English | $11,400 – English comes in playing well with his only missed cut since November 2014 was at the Honda. In the other nine tourneys, his worst finish was a T40 at the Waste Management and he has three top 10s. In a field this thin, he’s a premium player with an uneven record (T6 and missed cut in his two appearances).
Rickie Fowler | $10,700 – Fowler was everybody’s favorite (well, he and Graham DeLaet) to win last year. He came in hot and promptly missed the cut. In this other three trips to the Zurich, he’s made the cut and picked up a T10 in 2012. He regained some of his mojo at the Masters with a T12, but has yet to find that consistency that defined his second half run in 2014.
Keegan Bradley | $10,500 – As with many participants this week, Bradley has an uneven track record on this course. His four trips have produced T26, MC, MC, and T8. The two years he’s performed well have been preceded by missing the cut at or not playing the Masters. This year he comes in off a T22 at the Masters so he should miss the cut here. Now, I’m not sure the pattern will continue as there doesn’t seem to be a reason for it. Bradley is playing well coming in with nine cuts made in 10 tourneys this season.
Billy Horschel | $10,400 – Horschel has won here before. He’s also missed the cut twice and had a T26 to round out his four trips to the Zurich. His season has been equally hit or miss with a top finish of solo third at the Valero and he’s missed four cuts in 14 total tournaments. His profile fits to some degree as he’s 13th in GIR and 50th in driving distance.
Steve Stricker | $9,400 – Stricker has played here infrequently since the move to the Louisiana TPC. However, when he has shown up he’s been solid with four top 15 finishes in five trips since 2007. He hasn’t teed it up at the TPC since 2012 when he finished solo sixth. Stricker’s first start of the season was at the Masters where he picked up a T28.
Morgan Hoffmann | $9,300 – Hoffmann comes in playing very well since his withdrawal from the Honda in early March. He’s made four of five cuts with his worst finish a T28 at the Masters. He’s two for two in cuts made and should be a solid bet for a top 20 this year.
Brendan Steele | $9,200 – He’s 12 for 12 in cuts made this season. He’s made the cut both times he’s shown up at the Zurich (though his best finish was T32 in 2013). He sits 14th in driving distance, 49th in GIR, 37th in par 5 scoring and sixth in par 4 scoring. He’s playing like a premium player, but is priced a notch below.
Sean O’Hair | $9,000 – O’Hair finally looks to be back and it’s been a joy to watch. He’s missed two cuts in 2015’s nine tournaments (and has made eight out of the last nine). He was a solo sixth last week after missing the cut at Valero his last time out. He’s played this course five times, made the cut four times and had two top 20s in his first two trips. He doesn’t have anything in his statistical profile that screams “add me”, but he’s playing as well as he has in years.
John Peterson | $8,900 – The LSU graduate has sandwiched a T8 around missed cuts in the last three years. He’s 53rd in GIR, 28th in scrambling and 49th in par 5 scoring. He comes in playing very well with five straight cuts made including back to back top 20 finishes.
Charles Howell III | $8,600 – Howell has played every year since 2009 and made the cut in five of those six trips including two top 10s. He sits 20th in driving distance and 33rd in GIR and 25th in par 5 scoring. He’s missed two of the last three cuts so he’s been a bit inconsistent, but does have three top 25 finishes in his last five tournaments.
Cameron Tringale | $8,400 – He’s a little overpriced, but he could be worth it based on his history here. He’s four for five in cuts made and no finish worse than T28 back in 2010. He missed the cut at the RBC (where he’s never had success), but prior to that had made eight in a row. He’s not a standout in any one statistical category so you’re banking on the history and recent form to continue.
Daniel Berger | $8,400 – Berger makes his first trek to the TPC Louisiana. He’s made seven cuts in his last nine tournaments on tour. His statistical profile is off the charts however with a ranking of 16th in driving distance, 36th in GIR, fourth in approaches (200-225 yards) which can be a proxy for the par 3 distances this week, 53 rd in scrambling and 12th in par five scoring. Could we be looking at the victor this week? Perhaps.
Justin Thomas | $8,300 – Thomas is teeing it up for the first time at the Zurich Classic. He is currently 23 rd in driving distance and a respectable 76th in GIR. He also blisters par 5s (currently fourth on tour). He has five top 20 finishes in 2015 including a T11 last week at the RBC. He can be played with confidence.
Brendon de Jonge | $8,300 – De Jonge has only made the cut in two of his six trips to the Zurich, but did pick up a T26 and T18 in the two times he’s seen the weekend. He currently sits 44th in GIR. He’s made eight of 11 cuts on the year and three top 20s in his last five.
Jamie Donaldson | $8,200 – The Welshman checks in for the first time in Louisiana and he’s on the list for one reason only – par 5 scoring. He currently ranks seventh on the PGA Tour in par 5 scoring, but brings nothing else statistically that makes you want to grab him. He started off well in his initial starts in the States this year, then missed the cut at the Valspar and the SHO only to bounce back with a T33 at the Masters.
Nick Watney | $8,100 – He’s made seven of nine cuts in 2015 including his last time out at the SHO with a T25. He’s made the cut three of the last four years here and has two top 20 finishes.
Seung-Yul Noh | $8,000 – Defending champs have never done particularly well here so we’ll fade Noh a bit this week. He’s not playing particularly well having missed three of the last five cuts including the RBC last week. In his other two trips here outside of the win he missed the cut and T66. Since 2003, only one defending champion has finished in the top 20 the following year (Bubba Watson T18 in 2012 after winning in 2011).
Troy Merritt | $8,000 – Merritt is moving on up with a near $4,000 jump in salary off of his success last week at the RBC. He’s played here three times, made the cut twice and had a solo 13th place finish in 2010. He’s a stand out putter so that plays just about anywhere, but I’m not sure I’d pay the premium this week as the quality of the greens makes Merritt’s putting advantage smaller.
Bernd Wiesberger | $7,800 – I don’t know about Bernd. Since coming to the States he’s been two for four in made cuts with his last finish a T22 at the Masters. He’s seventh in GIR on the European Tour, but hasn’t shown the same skills since coming over. He’s a wild card and could contend. He’s a premium player who hasn’t shown consistency on the PGA Tour.
Russell Knox | $7,700 – Knox is severely underpriced for a player with his skills as his salary sits 10 spots lower than his odds imply he should be. Knox is 21 st in GIR and is playing pretty well with four of five cuts made since March and two top 20 finishes including a T18 last week at the RBC. He’s made the cut once in his two visits to the TPC Louisiana.
Martin Laird | $7,500 – Laird hasn’t missed a cut in 2015, but hasn’t done much recently as his last three tournaments have ended with a T43, T50 and T51. It’s not clear why he’s struggled recently, but until I see something more I can’t recommend him. He has the profile to make it work (31st in driving distance, 24th in GIR, and 15th in scrambling), but we’ve said that before and he hasn’t been able to put it together.
Will Wilcox | $7,200 – Wilcox was the second alternate when the initial field was published, but made it in. In his only trip to the Zurich last year he finished T34. In his last tournament, he picked up a T12 on the WEB.com tour’ s El Bosque Mexico Championship closing the weekend out with a 66 (tied for second best on Sunday). He’s made five straight cuts on the PGA Tour including a T6 in Puerto Rico. He is sixth in GIR and 45th in scrambling. I really like him this week.
John Senden | $6,700 – Senden has made seven of eight weekends since the Zurich moved to the TPC Louisiana. Senden had missed three cuts leading up to his T28 at the Masters so his form is questionable. That said, he’s 66th in GIR, 86th in driving distance and 64th in par 5 scoring.
Kyle Reifers | $6,700 – Reifers has only played here twice and has made the cut both times. This call is more about current form as he has back to back T11s heading into the tourney. Yes, he missed three straight cuts before the T11s, but he’s shown he can go low. He currently sits 48 th in GIR. He is priced 19 spots lower than he should be based on his odds.
Jeff Overton | $6,600 – Overton has been very consistent at the Zurich over the years with six straight years of making the cut and four top 20s in those six years. He comes in off two straight missed cuts that had been preceded by four straight weekends. He doesn’t have a lot in his statistical profile to recommend him, but he is priced 25 places below where his odds say he should be.
David Toms | $6,600 – Born in Monroe, Louisiana, went to high school and college (LSU) in Louisiana, lives in Shreveport, Louisiana. He knows Louisiana and knows this course. He hasn’t missed the cut at the Zurich since it moved to the new venue and has three top 20s in that time including at T15 last year.
Lucas Glover | $6,500 – Glover’s horrific putting (207th in strokes gained: putting) won’t be as big a deal this week with the lush, even greens. He’s priced 26 spots below where he should be based on odds. He’s fourth in GIR, 46th in driving distance and 86th in par 5 scoring. He’s made five of six cuts at this course and has four top 10s in that run. He comes in off a T18 at RBC and is a sneaky good play this week.
Alex Prugh | $6,200 – Prugh has played the course three times and made the cut twice including a T29 last year. He is 41st in driving distance, 10th in GIR and seventh in par 5 scoring. He checks nearly every statistical box we’d like to see on this course and he won’t cost you much. He’s alternated made and missed cuts the last four tournaments he’s entered, but can go low as evidenced by his back to back top 10s in early February.
Johnson Wagner ($6,700) and J.J. Henry ($5,900) have similar statistical profiles but haven’t had the same success Prugh has had here.
Andrew Svoboda | $6,200 – Svoboda’s made the cut both times he’s played the Zurich including a T2 last year. He comes in having missed five straight cuts and not finishing better than 73rd in his last seven. If he’s on your squad you are hanging your hat on course history.
Robert Streb | $6,200 – They are tempting you to take him at this price. In fact, his value based on Vegas odds is huge at 43 places difference between his DK salary and his odds to win the tournament. If you want to take advantage of this value, you’ll need to hold your nose as his last seven tournaments have gone MC, T59, T56, MC, MC, MC and T44 (last week at the RBC).
Andrew Loupe | $6,100 – He’s from Louisiana. He played his college golf at LSU. He’s relatively cheap. He hits the ball far (15th in driving distance) He’s one for two in cuts made here with a T52 last year. He’s missed his last two cuts so he’s a long distance dedication.
Erik Compton | $5,800 – Compton has played here the last three years and has made the cut twice including a T5 last year. After missing five straight cuts, he’s made three in a row with nothing better than a T43.
Ken Duke | $5,800 – Duke has made the cut in four straight appearances at the Zurich. He had a solo second place finish back in 2007. His form is poor with three straight missed cuts so I’m a little reticent to use him though his history is intriguing.
Cameron Smith | $5,800 – The young Aussie (21 years old) has flown under the radar in the States, but has had success overseas. He finished fifth in the Asian Tour Order of Merit in 2014 and had seven top 10s in nine starts on the tour. He had four wins as an amateur including the 2013 Australian Amateur Championship. He was 14 th in GIR on the Asian Tour last year. He comes in off a T15 at the RBC including three rounds of 68 or better. He’s priced 50 spots lower than he should be based on his odds for the week.
Andres Gonzales | $5,700 – Gonzales is a solid driver of the ball (62nd in driving distance) who gets to the greens (41st in GIR). Though he doesn’t score well on par 5s (148th) he does take advantage of par 4s (41 st). He’s played here twice and missed the cut twice. He hasn’t been playing terribly well with three missed cuts in his last six and no finish better than T60. But those courses are hard, this one, not so much.
David Hearn | $5,300 – Hearn is five for five in cuts made at the Zurich including seeing the weekend each of the last four years. He’s never finished higher than T21 and comes in with five cuts made in 11 tournaments in 2015. That said, he’s rarely come into this tournament playing particularly well. He’s also priced a whopping 53 slots below where he should be based on his odds to win the tournament.
Tommy Gainey | $5,200 – This is Gainey’s time to shine. He’s missed three straight cuts on the PGA Tour, missed the cut last week on the WEB.com tour. However, he’s never missed the cut here in his four appearances and has two top 10s including a T8 last year. I don’t know why this course fits his eye, but it does. He’s priced 30 spots lower on DraftKings than his odds imply.
Derek Ernst | $5,200 – I like Ernst and I don’t know why. He’s played here the last two years and made the cut both times, but nothing to write home about. He’s missed eight cuts in 2015 while only seeing the weekend three times. However, he does well in longer approaches (66th in approaches greater than 275 yards, seventh between 250 and 275, 98th 225 to 250 and seventh in 200 to 225). We could use those stats as proxy for par 3 scoring as well as chances on the par 4s and 5s. He’s risky, but I see a good bit of upside for GPPs.
Mark Anderson | $4,900 – I had to look this one up as I wasn’t familiar with Mr. Anderson’s work. He’s played the tournament twice and made the cut both times (a T17 last year; T30 in 2012). And that’s about it. In his only full season on the PGA Tour (2012) he ended up 43 rd in driving distance. His 2014 PGA Tour stint was cut short by an ankle injury suffered when a he fell from a ladder.
Jhonattan Vegas | $4,900 – Vegas is a bomber (19th in driving distance), but doesn’t always know where it’s headed. This is his first trek to the TPC and you’ll have to hope he can out bomb the course. He’s a one-percenter – little chance of making the cut, but could do damage if he does.
Good luck this week! Head over to DraftKings to choose your squad for this week.
DraftKings Scoring
Roster size: 6 Golfers
POINT SCORING
Golfers on each team will accumulate points as follows:
- Per Hole Scoring
- Double Eagle (DBL EAG): +20 PTs
- Eagle (EAG): +8 PTs
- Birdie (BIR): +3 PTs
- Par (PAR): +0.5 PTs
- Bogey (BOG): -0.5 PTs
- Double Bogey (DBL BOG): -1 PT
- Worse than Double Bogey (WORSE DBL BOG): -1 PT
- Tournament Finish Scoring
- 1st: 30 PTs
- 2nd: 20 PTs
- 3rd: 18 PTs
- 4th: 16 PTs
- 5th: 14 PTs
- 6th: 12 PTs
- 7th: 10 PTs
- 8th: 9 PTs
- 9th: 8 PTs
- 10th: 7 PTs
- 11th–15th: 6 PTs
- 16th–20th: 5 PTs
- 21st–25th: 4 PTs
- 26th–30th: 3 PTs
- 31st–40th: 2 PTs
- 41st-50th: 1 PTs
- Streaks and Bonuses
- Streak of 3 Birdies of Better (MAX 1 Per Round) (3+ BIR STRK): +3 PTs
- Bogey Free Round (BOG FREE RD): +3 PTs
- All 4 Rounds Under 70 Strokes (ALL 4 RDS UND 70): +5 PTs
- Hole in One (HOLE IN ONE): +10 PTs
Scoring Notes: Ties for a finishing position will not reduce or average down points. For example, if 2 golfers tie for 3rd place, each will receive the 18 fantasy points for the 3rd place finish result. Playoff Holes will not count towards final scoring, with the exception of the “finishing position” scoring. For example, the golfer who wins the tournament will receive the sole award of 1st place points, but will not accrue points for their scoring result in the individual playoff holes.
Player Lock Notes: All golfers lock at the time the first golfer tees off on day 1 of an event.
Full rules are located here for DraftKings golf.