Daily Fantasy Golf Strategy: Valspar Championship
We are back this week for another look at Daily Fantasy PGA at DraftKings. Last week, we had some success especially if you follow me on Twitter where I dropped this lineup, which would have succeeded in just about any game last week as it scored 513.5 points.
I will try to do this throughout the week so make sure you’re following along. I continue to build lineups throughout the week and I’ll share some of the interesting ones on Twitter.
We stay in Florida for the Valspar Championship at the beautiful Innisbrook Resort. Let’s see if I can help you out this week.
It’s a great week to check out DraftKings as they have some top notch contests. Come on over and take a look.
Tour Stop
Another tour stop, another week in sunny Florida as this week we head to Innisbrook in Palm Harbor, Florida to play the Copperhead Course to chase the Valspar Championship. This is the third of four stops on the Florida swing. So Bermudagrass is on the greens of this 7,340 par 71 course. The course also swings near the Gulf of Mexico giving it a bit more of an ocean-feel than other Florida courses.
As with the past two weeks, we had a change to this tournament in 2007. However, the change was time of year – this tournament used to be played in the fall, but was moved to the spring in 2007. The effect isn’t as great as switching courses, but weather does affect players to some degree.
The weather looks like it should be good this week with thunderstorms possible Wednesday night which may make the course a bit tougher for the Thursday AM tee times. Beyond Thursday there is a chance for rain every day, but it’s Florida so there’s always a chance for rain every day.
Scorecard breakdown: Five (5) par threes, nine (9) par fours and four (4) par fives. So, we’re going to want solid par four scorers and bombers who can take advantage of the par fives.
Field
We are back to the standard Florida field – solid if not spectacular – after the stupendous field last week. We have 11 of the top 30 in OWGR this week so we’ll have some star power, but we’ll need to look beyond the stars to find some value.
The full field can be found here.
Also, thanks to GolfOdds.com for the odds this week. If you’d like to see a second set of odds, check out the Betting Zone’s odds here – just click on this week’s tournament on the left hand pane.
Past Tournament Results
2014 Winner: John Senden picked up the win last year as he gained strokes in the last few holes to sneak past the rest of the field with a total score of 7 under. He is back to defend his title.
Here is the top 20 from last year’s tournament
Fun fact #1: Cincinnati Reds Marlon Byrd was once a clubhouse attendant at Innisbrook.
Fun fact #2: Only three of the 14 winners in the prior year have even made it back to the top 10 the following year.
DraftKings Expert Picks
Blayne Barber | $5,100 – Barber hasn’t played in this tournament, but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t played this course previously. As a rising junior in college, Barber played in the 2011 Southern Amateur and finished fifth. Barber also grew up in Florida (born in Tallahassee, played his freshman year of golf at University of Central Florida) so he’s got a bit of a home field advantage as well.
Sang-Moon Bae | $7,500 – I am always on #TeamBae. Bae has played here the last three years and he’s made the cut each time including a tie for second in 2012 and a tie for 14th last year . He comes in off a missed cut at the Honda and a tie for 46th at the Cadillac, but his course history gives me hope.
Zac Blair | $5,300 – Blair comes up roses in a lot of the statistical categories we are looking at this week – he’s top 25 in driving accuracy, bogey avoidance and par 5 scoring. He’s never played here previously, but he comes in with two straight cuts made and a closing round 69 in Puerto Rico last week.
Jon Curran | $5,600 – Curran’s first trip here sees him coming off his best finish on the PGA Tour as he lost out in a playoff in Puerto Rico to finish tied for second. He’s one of the more accurate drivers of the ball (23rd currently in 2015). He fails nearly every other statistical screen, but he’s coming in hot.
Graham DeLaet |$8,800 – DeLaet has withdrawn from the tournament. Last time out we saw DeLaet shoot back to back 75s and miss the cut at the Honda. Prior to that missed cut he had two top 10 finishes in three tournaments. DeLaet has a great record here with a tie for 17th and a tie for eighth in his last two trips. He’s a streaky player and has fought off injury and illness this season so he probably won’t be heavily owned.
Luke Donald |$9,900 – Donald has played here four times since 2007. He’s made the cut four times. He’s finished in the top 10 four times. Any questions?
Jamie Donaldson | $8,500 – I will ride the Welshman one more time. He started off well at Doral, but faltered on the weekend to end up in a tie for 44th. This is his first trek to the Copperhead course. The stat that sticks out for me with Donaldson is strokes gained: putting. He led the tour after the Honda Classic, currently sits seventh and he’ll need that skill this week to be successful.
Jason Dufner | $8,200 – Dufner didn’t quite break out last week as I’d hoped. However, he’s back on the list due to course history. He’s finished in the top 30 each of the last six years here including his best finish of the six last year – a tie for 14th.
Harris English | $9,100 – English was a favorite choice of many pundits last year based on his form at the time and his win on this course at the 2011 Southern Amateur. Now, he’s not nearly on the run he was at this time last year (he missed the cut at his last tourney – the Honda), but I’ll take my chances with him this week.
Jim Furyk | $10,900 – Furyk has been in the top 20 each of the last five years at Innisbrook including a win in 2010. He’s not getting any younger, but his course history here puts him at the front of the line this week.
Andres Gonzales | $4,300 – Gonzales hasn’t played this tournament previously, but he’s been playing some of the best golf of his career in 2015 including a tie for tenth at Pebble Beach. Since then he’s missed the cut at the NTO and tied for 63 rd at the Honda. However, he has a couple of things going for him – seventh in GIR and tied for 23rd in par 4 scoring. So, if he can keep his ball in the fairway, he’s got a chance to score on the par 4s which will be key this week.
Emiliano Grillo | $6,100 – This is his first trip to the Valpsar, but Grillo played this course as part of the Southern Amateur back in 2011. He finished in a tie for 14th during that tourney. He turned pro in 2011 and is a member of the European Tour. The Argentine ended up in a five-way playoff last week (he lost) in Puerto Rico so he’s continuing a great run in 2015 where he’s made the cut in all six appearances he’s made worldwide after closing out 2014 with eight straight cuts made. Oh, he’s also 96th in the World Rankings.
Chesson Hadley | $5,700 – Hadley’s first and only appearance at the Valspar was last year where his debut led to a tie for 14th. He’s been up and down this year, but his final round 67 in Puerto Rico (and top 20 finish) should have him feeling good coming into this week.
Adam Hadwin | $5,600 – Hadwin has made four straight cuts (no finish worse than 32nd; none better than 22nd) with his tie for 27th in Puerto Rico. The Canadian was fifth heading into Sunday before struggling with a 74. He hasn’t played here previously, but he’s playing well.
Brian Harman | $7,000 – Harman has put up back to back top 25 finishes here over the last two years. He took last week off, but his last appearance on tour was a tie for 11th at the Honda with a closing round of 64.
Russell Knox | $7,900 – Knox has only played here twice and made the cut once (last year with a tie for 25th). He has been hit or miss this year with his last five appearances being a tie for 13th, missed cut, tie for 15th, missed cut, tie for third (at the Honda). However, he checks a lot of the statistical boxes (tied for seventh in par 4 scoring, tied for 38th in driving accuracy and tied for 26th in GIR) so he’s got a solid shot on a course that shouldn’t challenge his often wonky putter.
Matt Kuchar | $10,300 – Kuchar has three top 15 finishes in his last four appearances (since 2009) at Innisbrook. His worst finish of those four was last year’s tie for 38th. He picked up a tie for 23rd at the Cadillac Championship and slowly crept up the leader board over the weekend.
Scott Langley | $5,900 – Langley has teed it up at Innisbrook the last two years and finished in a tie for 30th in 2013 and solo third last year. He’s made four straight cuts, but nothing too impressive so you’re banking on his course history continuing if you choose to roster him.
Will MacKenzie | $7,400 – MacKenzie took three years off and then returned to Innisbrook last year with a tie for fourth. He played in Puerto Rico this past week and put together a solid four days to finish in a tie for sixth. So, he’s got some confidence coming into a place where he succeeded last year.
George McNeill | $6,500 – McNeill is a native Floridian who has had some success here (including his seventh place finish last year). His last time out was the Honda where he picked up a tie for 11th so he’ll be a low priced player with some upside.
Francesco Molinari | $6,300 – Molinari is the most accurate driver of the ball on the PGA Tour this year. He’s fourth on the European Tour in the same after finishing 11th in 2014. His accuracy will be rewarded on this course where the hazards can be punitive. He’s never played here, hasn’t played since the Honda and has missed the cut in his last two appearances on tour so he’s probably off a lot of DFS players’ lists this week.
Ryan Moore | $9,400 – Moore’s scores at the Cadillac last week were 66-71-74-76. That’s trending the wrong way. However, that line did lead to a tie for ninth, but his struggles on Sunday give me pause this week at a course where he hasn’t had a ton of success (seven appearances, four cuts made, one top ten finish).
Kevin Na | $8,300 – Last year Na took a month off prior to his run to a second place finish at the Valspar. He had another top 10 in 2009, but hasn’t done much else here. He had a solid week at the Cadillac with a tie for ninth place and back to back to back 71s – an impressive feat with all of the volatility on the course.
Louis Oosthuizen | $8,700 – Oosty looked healthy last week at the Cadillac and could be a dark horse this week. He’s missed the cut here two years in a row, but did have a tie for 20th in 2012. It’s about his performance at the Cadillac that puts Oosthuizen on the list this week.
Alex Prugh | $5,700 – If you want to go with a bomber this week, Prugh is a dark horse. He’s third in par 5 birdie or better scoring in 2015 and 35th in driving distance. He hasn’t played here since back to back missed cuts in 2009 and 2010 so he won’t be high on anyone’s list, but makes a good GPP play.
Justin Rose | $10,100 – Rose has a nice record here with his lowest finish being a tie for 29th in 2012 in his last four appearances (over five years). However, his current form will make me pass – his wrist doesn’t seem to be healthy and it’s affecting his overall play.
Ollie Schniederjans | $3,400 – Schniederjans is a senior at Georgia Tech and made the field on a sponsor’s exemption. He’s currently number one in the World Amateur Golf Ranking and this is his PGA Tour debut. Why do I mention him beyond that impressive resume? He got a shot to play on the Web.com tour last year at the Air Capital Classic. He finished in a tie for fifth.
He’s played a couple of other pro tourneys with a tie for 41 st at the Scottish Open at Royal Aberdeen last year. Finally, he’s played this course previously as he played the 2011 Southern Amateur where he finished just outside the top 20 as an 18 year old.
Adam Scott | $13,200 – Looks like I was wrong about fading Scott last week. He’s going to be the best player in the tournament this week so he demands attention. His transition to a standard-length putter looks to be working and fatherhood hasn’t seemed to slow him. No rust last week so he should be primed to build on his top 10 from Doral.
He doesn’t have much of a course history here (played three times, made two cuts, best finish a tie for 28th in 2010). You are taking him for the form he showed last week.
John Senden | $7,600 – Senden is back to defend his title at a course where he’s had other success including back to back second place finishes in 2007 and 2008 and a 15th in 2011. He performed admirably last week with a tie for 31 st at Doral and should be set up for another top 25 finish here.
Brandt Snedeker | $9,500 – Snedeker’s caddie had some choice words for Doral last week, but Sneds played well to end up in a tie for 17th. He hasn’t done much here the last couple of years, but does have two top 10s (in 2011 and 2008) so he can get it done here.
Jordan Spieth | $12,200 – Spieth, the native Floridian, has played here twice and has a tie for seventh and a tie for 20th on this resume. After stumbling out of the gate at Doral with an opening round 75, he righted the ship and snuck into the top 20. He’s an option in just about any tourney he plays and his success here makes him one of the favorites.
Shawn Stefani | $6,300 – Stefani’s only trip here was in 2013 and it ended up with a tie for seventh place. He missed the cut the last time out at the Honda, but prior to that had run off a string of seven straight cuts made. Beyond his solid one trip here, he’s currently sitting at 14th in par 4 scoring and 21 st in par 5 scoring in 2015 which will be important at Innisbrook.
Henrik Stenson | $12,100 – Stenson stays stateside for another week and takes his first swing at Copperhead. He looked fabulous all week long at Doral and should be primed for another run at a win. He’s strung together three straight top 15 finishes worldwide in 2015 and is a premium player at a tournament that is lacking a lot of star power.
Kevin Streelman | $6,900 – Streelman missed back to back cuts at Pebble Beach and the NTO. We haven’t seen him since, but he won here in 2013 and picked up a tie for 38th in 2014. He also sits 22nd in par 4 scoring (through 35 rounds) in 2015. It’s unclear which Streelman we’ll see which makes him a risky play best left for GPPs.
Justin Thomas | $7,000 – Thomas makes his first appearance at this tourney, but like others, not his first appearance at Innisbrook. He was also part of the star-studded 2011 Southern Amateur and finished just outside the top 20 (tied with another golfer debuting here this week Oliver Schniederjans) and also as an 18 year old. Thomas is a good driver of the ball (top 25 this year in driving distance) and crushes par 5s (currently third in par 5 birdie or better scoring).
Cameron Tringale | $6,500 – Tringale didn’t embarrass himself is his first trip to the Cadillac as he finished in the middle of the pack. For someone without the pedigree of most of the other competitors, Tringale should see it as a win. He placed in a tie for 25th here last year, but also had a tie for third in 2013. He’s made four straight cuts, though none of them better than his finish last week.
Boo Weekley | $7,100 – Weekley finished second here in 2013, but has very little else to write home about in his course history. He’s played pretty well lately with four cuts made in five appearances and two top 10s (including last week in Puerto Ric). As we dig into the statistics, he also doesn’t have much to write home about with his only mentionable spot being his seventh place in par 5 scoring. It’s a mixed bag for Boo which makes him a good choice for GPPs, but I’d stay away from him in cash games.
Lee Westwood | $9,600 – Westwood was hoping for a top 10 finish at Doral but had to settle for a 12th place finish after a Sunday round of 75. He’s also firing it up for the first time here so you’re counting on his form carrying over – a form that has him with two top 10s and no missed cuts in four 2015 worldwide tournaments.
Will Wilcox | $5,400 – Yes, that is his real name. He’s actually a pretty good golfer too. He comes into his first appearance here sitting eighth in GIR, 13th in par 3 scoring and 17th in driving accuracy so he has a lot of things going for him at a price that’s very attractive.
Gary Woodland | $9,200 – Woodland is the kind of bomber who can take advantage of this course (and the par fives). Woodland missed the cut in 2013, but in his other three trips in the last four years he’s got a win (2011) and a tie for eighth (2014). He’s coming in off a solid performance at the Cadillac Championship and looks primed for another run at a top 20 finish.
Good luck this week! Head over to DraftKings to choose your squad for this week.
DraftKings Scoring
Roster size: 6 Golfers
POINT SCORING
Golfers on each team will accumulate points as follows:
- Per Hole Scoring
- Double Eagle (DBL EAG): +20 PTs
- Eagle (EAG): +8 PTs
- Birdie (BIR): +3 PTs
- Par (PAR): +0.5 PTs
- Bogey (BOG): -0.5 PTs
- Double Bogey (DBL BOG): -1 PT
- Worse than Double Bogey (WORSE DBL BOG): -1 PT
- Tournament Finish Scoring
- 1st: 30 PTs
- 2nd: 20 PTs
- 3rd: 18 PTs
- 4th: 16 PTs
- 5th: 14 PTs
- 6th: 12 PTs
- 7th: 10 PTs
- 8th: 9 PTs
- 9th: 8 PTs
- 10th: 7 PTs
- 11th–15th: 6 PTs
- 16th–20th: 5 PTs
- 21st–25th: 4 PTs
- 26th–30th: 3 PTs
- 31st–40th: 2 PTs
- 41st-50th: 1 PTs
- Streaks and Bonuses
- Streak of 3 Birdies of Better (MAX 1 Per Round) (3+ BIR STRK): +3 PTs
- Bogey Free Round (BOG FREE RD): +3 PTs
- All 4 Rounds Under 70 Strokes (ALL 4 RDS UND 70): +5 PTs
- Hole in One (HOLE IN ONE): +10 PTs
Scoring Notes: Ties for a finishing position will not reduce or average down points. For example, if 2 golfers tie for 3rd place, each will receive the 18 fantasy points for the 3rd place finish result. Playoff Holes will not count towards final scoring, with the exception of the “finishing position” scoring. For example, the golfer who wins the tournament will receive the sole award of 1st place points, but will not accrue points for their scoring result in the individual playoff holes.
Player Lock Notes: All golfers lock at the time the first golfer tees off on day 1 of an event.
Full rules are located here for DraftKings golf.