Daily Fantasy Golf Strategy: Waste Management Phoenix Open
We are back this week for another look at Daily Fantasy PGA at DraftKings. My lineups last week were able to cash in every 50/50 I entered and even picked up a couple of money finishes in GPPs. Let’s see if I can help you out this week.
This week we head to Phoenix and the Waste Management Phoenix Open. This tourney is sort of the European football version of a golf tournament with singing, drinking and all-around hooliganism. However, we don’t have to worry about playing multiple courses or waiting until Sunday for the cut.
Oh yea, and Tiger Woods is back playing this week. Enjoy this trip down memory lane at the famous 16th.
It’s a great week to check out DraftKings as they have some top notch contests. Come on over and take a look.
Tour Stop
This week’s tour stop is the Waste Management Phoenix Open at the TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course) just outside of Scottsdale, Arizona. The Stadium Course is a 7,266 yard, par 72 course. The course went through some major renovations this past year and there will be changes to each hole from last year; some subtle and some major.
The most famous (or infamous) hole on the course is the enclosed 16th which holds 20,000 fans and is home to the rowdiest fans in all of golf.
You can enjoy a description of the course in words or moving pictures.
Field
The field is probably the best we’ve seen in all of 2015 in a full field event. We should have 12 of the top 25 in the World Golf Rankings here in Phoenix.
The full field can be found here.
Also, thanks to GolfOdds.com for the odds this week. If you’d like to see a second set of odds, check out the Betting Zone’s odds here – just click on this week’s tournament on the left hand pane.
Past Tournament Results
2014 Winner: Kevin Stadler who is sitting out this week as he continues to recover from a hairline fracture in his wrist.
Here is the top 20 from last year’s tournament
It’s unclear exactly how the changes from the $12 million in renovations will affect the play, but I’m still going to lean pretty heavily on course history here.
DraftKings Expert Picks
Tiger Woods | $11,400 – Let’s get him out of the way first as you have to talk about him in almost any tourney he’s in. He’s only played here three times and hasn’t teed it up in Phoenix in 13 years. At this point, he’s a complete wild card and one I’d avoid.
Also, as I noted last week, I won’t cover all of the top names, but anyone that is priced at $10,000 or higher is a solid option again this week with the exception of Tiger. You can put just about any of them in your lineup and be safe in the knowledge that they should come through with a solid performance.
I might be a bit concerned about last week’s winner Bill Haas ($10,700). Though his injury certainly didn’t slow him down, he’s still dealing with a wrist problem. I’d certainly take Hideki Matsuyama ($10,700) at the same price over Haas.
Jamie Donaldson | $7,200 – The Welshman is one my favorite players on any tour as he just seems to have fun wherever he goes. He took last week off, but his last time out he ended up tied for ninth at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship. He sits 24th in OWGR and his only missed cut this season is a withdrawal at the Needbank due to a migraine.
Harris English | $8,600 – English has two top 20s in three appearances in the desert including a ninth place finish a year ago. English missed a couple of cuts early in the season (in October 2014), but has been solid since with a top five and two top 40s. I expect another solid run around this track.
James Hahn | $5,200 – Hahn has quietly put up two solid outings in a row with only one round in the 70s over those eight rounds. He’s played here twice and missed the cut last year after tying for 16th in 2013. I like him as a dark horse candidate for the top 20.
Russell Henley | $8,600 – Henley’s track record is poor with a missed cut and a tie for 67th in his two starts at the Waste Management. However, he’s in top form with his lowest finish over this four starts this season was a tie for 35th in Shanghai.
Charley Hoffmann | $8,100 – Hoffmann finished one back last week and had a round of 71 in there. He finished strong on Sunday with a 64. His record here is less than stellar, but he’s in form and I’ll ride the heat wave.
Zach Johnson | $7,900 – I put Johnson in a lot of my lineups last week and it nearly cost me. I missed the signs of his faltering putter and those signs are still there. His price is nice, but I’ll be staying away until he gets the flat stick figured out. He hasn’t played here since 2010.
Colt Knost | $4,800 – He is currently the second alternate, but if he gets in the field he’s an attractive option. I think Robert Allenby won’t play and Ryan Moore may not be healthy so he’s got a shot to get into the field. This will be Knost’s first appearance at the tournament, but he’s coming off a top 20 finish last week with a closing round of 63. Knost also led the Humana in Driving Accuracy at 85.2% (which will be key with the new, strategically placed bunkers). Knost has back to back top 20 finishes and has made three cuts in a row. He’s struggled a bit in the initial round of his last two tournaments, but once he’s through Thursday he’s been money.
Matt Kuchar | $12,000 – It’s hard to ignore Kuchar who is possibly the hottest golfer on the PGA Tour not named Jimmy Walker. He backed up his tie for third at the Sony with a tie for second at the Humana. If this trend continues, he should win the Phoenix in a playoff. Kuch hasn’t played here since 2012 and his record is solid if unspectacular at the Stadium Course.
Hunter Mahan | $8,900 – I generally don’t put Mahan into lineups until late in the season as he usually tears up the late season tourneys and the FedEx Cup tracks. However, he’s started off well this season by cashing in the three tournaments he’s played on the PGA Tour. His last time out he finished tied for 17th at the Hyundai. He’s played the Phoenix eight times with three top 10 finishes including a tie for fourth last year. He won back in 2010 he’s got good course history to pair with his current solid form.
William McGirt | $5,100 – McGirt is on here for his success at the Phoenix Open as his last three times out on tour this year are CUT, tie for 71 st and CUT. However, McGirt has shone at the Phoenix making the cut all three times he’s played and never finishing lower than a tie for 32nd.
John Merrick | $3,700 – Merrick makes an interesting deeper play. He’s played the Phoenix six times and he’s made the cut every time. He’s generally mired in the 50s in terms of standings, but he’s got two top 25s including last year. Merrick also finished 15th in driving accuracy last year. He’s on pretty poor run of form as he’s only made two cuts in six events in 2015, but in a stars & scrubs lineup he saves you some serious money.
Phil Mickelson | $11,400 – Like Tiger, you have to mention Phil this week, but not for the same reasons. Lefty comes into his “hometown” tournament off a solid showing at the Humana (tie for 24th with his final three rounds in the 60s). He has always loved playing here (25 appearances and 10 top 10 finishes) and the fans adore him. He won here just two years ago, so he has to be considered this week.
Francesco Molinari | $ 7,500 – The Italian Jerry Kelly? Yes, I know Mr. Kelly missed the cut at the Humana, but Molinari didn’t! In fact Molinari picked up his second top 10 (worldwide) of the season. He’s got only one round in the 70s in his last eight and looks primed for a solid week on his first time around the Stadium Course. Molinari sits at 15 th in driving accuracy on tour.
Ryan Moore | $8,500 – Back to back top 10 finishes in his last two appearances and hasn’t missed the cut since 2008 (though he’s had some pretty poor finishes even though he’s made the cut. However, he withdrew last week with a neck injury so I’d tread lightly here.
Pat Perez | $6,100 – Of all the players teeing it up this week, Perez has the most appearances (13) without a top 10 finish. However, he’s finished in the top 25 in four of the last five years with his only miss being a disqualification in 2013 (though he would have missed the cut) for signing an incorrect scorecard. He closed with back to back 70s over last weekend to drop into a tie for 30th, but his recent record here is solid.
Scott Piercy | $8,400 – Piercy has been busy in the early going with five cuts made and seven appearances. In these five tourneys, his worst finish is a tie for 30th (though it was last week the Humana). Piercy’s record at the Waste Management is spectacular with six starts, three top 10 finishes and a tie for 15th last year.
Rory Sabbatini | $6,400 –The renaissance is in full swing and Rory’s price is dropping? Doesn’t make sense to me, but I’ll take advantage of his current form to spend elsewhere. I don’t care that he missed the cut last season. This is a different Rory.
Brendan Steele | $8,800 – He’s played here the last four years. He’s been in the top 10 in the last three years. Oh, he’s also coming off a tie for second at the Humana with a finishing round of 64. He’s going to have to be in all of my lineups.
Robert Streb | $7,400 – Streb takes a week off and his salary plummets to the mid-tier? I don’t get it, but I’ll take it. At this price, he’s hard to ignore even with no history here.
Justin Thomas | $8,700 – Ok, I’ll bite. This rookie has been on fire – he’s put up back to back 100+ points in DraftKings over the last two weeks. He’s averaged over 100 points in his last four starts. Again, he has no history here, but his form is choice.
Bubba Watson | $14,300 – Watson is the top dog in this week’s salary hierarchy. He’s made the cut in seven of eight times out at the Stadium Course. He’s got three top 10 finishes and five top 25s. He has a win already this season and his last time out he finished tenth at the Hyundai. In form and great course history makes for a good choice even with the exorbitant salary.
Gary Woodland | $9,400 – Like Watson, Woodland is a bomber and also has an excellent track record at the Phoenix Open. He’s made the cut in all five appearances and has two top 20s in those five events. He’s got three top 5s in his four starts this season so I look for him to challenge for the win this week.
There is a lot of value in the middle this week so I will probably take a tip from horse racing and “box” those middle tier players with one or two of the top tier golfers in a variety of lineups.
Good luck this week! Head over to DraftKings to choose your squad for this week.
DraftKings Scoring
Roster size: 6 Golfers
POINT SCORING
Golfers on each team will accumulate points as follows:
- Per Hole Scoring
- Double Eagle (DBL EAG): +20 PTs
- Eagle (EAG): +8 PTs
- Birdie (BIR): +3 PTs
- Par (PAR): +0.5 PTs
- Bogey (BOG): -0.5 PTs
- Double Bogey (DBL BOG): -1 PT
- Worse than Double Bogey (WORSE DBL BOG): -1 PT
- Tournament Finish Scoring
- 1st: 30 PTs
- 2nd: 20 PTs
- 3rd: 18 PTs
- 4th: 16 PTs
- 5th: 14 PTs
- 6th: 12 PTs
- 7th: 10 PTs
- 8th: 9 PTs
- 9th: 8 PTs
- 10th: 7 PTs
- 11th–15th: 6 PTs
- 16th–20th: 5 PTs
- 21st–25th: 4 PTs
- 26th–30th: 3 PTs
- 31st–40th: 2 PTs
- 41st-50th: 1 PTs
- Streaks and Bonuses
- Streak of 3 Birdies of Better (MAX 1 Per Round) (3+ BIR STRK): +3 PTs
- Bogey Free Round (BOG FREE RD): +3 PTs
- All 4 Rounds Under 70 Strokes (ALL 4 RDS UND 70): +5 PTs
- Hole in One (HOLE IN ONE): +10 PTs
Scoring Notes: Ties for a finishing position will not reduce or average down points. For example, if 2 golfers tie for 3rd place, each will receive the 18 fantasy points for the 3rd place finish result. Playoff Holes will not count towards final scoring, with the exception of the “finishing position” scoring. For example, the golfer who wins the tournament will receive the sole award of 1st place points, but will not accrue points for their scoring result in the individual playoff holes.
Player Lock Notes: All golfers lock at the time the first golfer tees off on day 1 of an event.
Full rules are located here for DraftKings golf.