Daily Fantasy Golf Strategy: Zurich Classic of New Orleans
The king of course history Charley Hoffman finally pulled it off last week with a win. Now, we head to a much easier course, the TPC of Louisiana for the Zurich Classic of New Orleans.
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Tour Stop
This week we head just west of New Orleans to the TPC Louisiana a 7,425 yard, par 72 course built in 2004 by Pete Dye. As with any Dye course, there are quirks galore and the unexpected should be expected. We also have Bermudagrass on the greens again this week. The Zurich Classic of New Orleans has been played here every year since 2005 with the exception of 2006 when flooding precluded the use of the course.
The weather looks like it may not be an issue until the weekend as the winds pick up midday Friday and Saturday. It looks like rain should hold off for the week.
As always, continue to check up until lineup lock on Thursday.
Scorecard breakdown: Four (4) par threes, ten (10) par fours and four (4) par fives making up the par-72. The course has some very short par fours with four of them coming in under 400 yards.
Field
It’s not exactly the strongest field though we do have three of the top 10 in the world here.
The full field can be found here.
Also, thanks to GolfOdds.com for the odds this week. If you’d like to see a second set of odds, check out the Betting Zone’s odds here – just click on this week’s tournament on the left hand pane.
Past Tournament Results
The Zurich Classic of New Orleans has been played here every year since 2005 with the exception of 2006 when flooding precluded the use of the course.
Seven of the last 11 winners at the Zurich made it their first PGA Tour victory including three of the last four.
Statistical Review
Let’s take a look at the statistical angles in for this week’s tournament.
There are five par 5 holes on the course. All of them are between 548 and 585 yards long.
There are four par 3 holes on the course. All of them are between 207 and 221 yards long.
There are 10 par 4 holes on the course. Five of them are between 355 and 399 yards long. Four of the remaining five par 4 holes are between 476 and 492 yards.
So, with so many holes that are similar in length, I’ll look at a variety of scoring efficiency stats:
Par 4 Efficiency 450-500 yards (P4E450-500)
Par 5 Efficiency 550-600 yards (P5E550-600)
Par 4 Efficiency 350-400 yards (P4E3350-400)
Par 3 Efficiency 200-225 yards (P3E200-225)
Driving Distance: Bombers can have a bit of an advantage here. We’ll use this as a tiebreaker this week. It will not be heavily weighted.
I’m focused on 2016 stats now, but still check on 2015 stats to get a larger sample size on players.
And each week, we’ll look at Strokes Gained: Putting (SG:P) and Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (SG:T2G) with SG:T2G being more important this week. In fact, I’m not really worried about putting this week as the greens are every easy.
DraftKings Expert Picks
Jason Day | $12,500 – We have a top heavy field with three of the top 10 here and Day as the best of the best. He rates second in my statistical review and finished T4 here last year in his first trip in six years. Day has won twice in 2016, though he “struggled” to a T23 his last time out at the RBC due to his Saturday round where he shot 79.
Justin Rose | $11,800 – Rose on here last year and defending champs have a record of struggling the following year. I don’t have that concern with Rose as he’s not like most of the past champs. In his last event on Tour, Rose finished T10 at the Masters.
Rickie Fowler | $11,100 – Fowler is the third man in our top 10 OWGR triumvirate and also third in my statistical model. However, he’s missed the cut the last two times he’s been to the Zurich Classic. His profile has some warning flags for one of the highest priced options of the week (55th in P4E350-400 and 193rd in P3E200-225). His current form has slowed from his torrid early start to 2016. He’s made two of his last three cuts with one top 10.
Charley Hoffman | $10,500 – Hoffman’s win last week was nearly predestined based on his otherworldly course history. This week? Not so much as he has one top 10 and another top 20 in nine trips. The statistical models don’t favor him this week even with his current form (four top 10s in his last seven starts).
Billy Horschel | $10,300 – Horschel won here in 2013 amid one of his patented hot streaks. Do we see another hot streak coming? Perhaps. He’s made eight straight cuts coming in and has five top 20s in that period. He finished T4 last week…hmmm……
Daniel Berger | $10,100 – Berger debuted at the Zurich last year with a T6 and this year’s profile fits. He’s made five cuts in a row and has back to back top 10s (T5 at the SHO and T10 at the Masters). Form and stats agree that Berger should be in for more success again this year.
Chris Kirk | $9,800 – Kirk is a bit like Horschel in that when he gets on a run, you want to ride him. He has four top 25 finishes in his last five events and only missed a cut at the Masters. He’s played the Zurich twice with a missed cut and a T21. With the exception of his par 5 scoring efficiency, nothing else in the profile is outstanding, but it’s about form with Kirk.
Smylie Kaufman | $9,500 – Kaufman will likely be one of the highest-owned player as he has the game to win and he’s priced below the elite-level players. He has two top 15 finishes in this last three stroke play events (including a T29 at the Masters). He’s also local to some degree as he played his college golf at LSU. This is his first run at the TPC of Louisiana, but has the scoring profile to succeed.
Marc Leishman | $9,100 – Leishman’s profile fits the course outside of his less than attractive rating in the P5E550-600 stat where he’s 122nd. The Aussie has only played here once (MC in 2009) and his current form is a bit uneven with four made cuts in his last five stroke play events and only one top 20 (API).
Charles Howell III | $8,700 – Steady Eddie will probably be largely ignored this week as those who want to play a golfer in this salary range will probably drop down to Lovemark or Kizzire. Howell has back to back top 25s on Tour and has two top 15s in eight starts at TPC of Louisiana. The profile works outside of two areas – he’s 165th in P4E450-500 and 115th in P3E200-225.
Cameron Tringale | $8,600 – Tringale looks like Charley Hoffman from last week with solid course history here. However, his current form is not nearly what C-Hoff’s coming into the Valero. Tringale does have four top 20s in his last five Zurichs including a solo second place last year. However, that current form is staring us right in the face with only one top 20 this year at the CareerBuilder.
Danny Lee | $8,500 – Lee has back to back top 25 finishes at the TPC of Louisiana. The only scoring category he’s in the top 100 in is P4E450-500 where he is 18th. His current form has been all over the place so he’s a GPP option only for me.
Jamie Lovemark | $8,400 – As I mentioned above, Lovemark will likely be another popular play this week as the upside is there with him at the TPC of Louisiana. Even though he’s ninth in driving distance he’s only 104th in P5E550-600 this year. However, he rates highly in all of the other scoring areas we’re focused on this week.
Byeong-Hun An | $8,300 – An makes his debut here this week and perhaps he’ll capture some of that debutante fairy dust. His profile doesn’t look like he will do well and he comes in off his first missed cut of the year (Masters).
Patton Kizzire | $8,200 – It’s another Web.com guy whose profile fits the TPC of Louisiana. He missed the cut at the SHO, but rebounded with a T14 at the RBC. He has three top 15s in 10 2016 events and has shown the ability to score. The profile fits in every single efficiency category though he’s only 69th in SG:T2G this year.
Russell Henley | $8,100 – Henley is another debutant whose only notable skill is the putter. I’m not going to roster him this week.
Gary Woodland | $8,000 – If this were the start of the year, I’d be all over Woodland. However, his early season work seems to have stalled as he is without a top 25 in his last six events. Woodland is first in driving distance and second in P5E550-600. He’s played the Zurich Classic twice and his best finish is 64th in 2013.
Steve Stricker | $7,900 – Stricker has an excellent history here as he has four top 15s in seven trips to TPC of Louisiana. The veteran is first in SG:P this year and is 55th in P4E350-400 which should be of a help this year.
Ben Martin | $7,900 – Martin is 19th in P5E550-600 and 68th in P4E450-500 so he’ll be able to score enough to succeed. He made his only cut in two trips to the Zurich two years ago (T15). He’s made five straight cuts on Tour with two top 20s.
Aaron Baddeley | $7,800 – Badds has made three of four cuts on Tour with two top 10 finishes. He’s played here sparingly over the tourney’s life at TPC of Louisiana with three starts and one cut made (T28 in 2010). The only scoring stat he’s in the top 100 in this year is P4E350-400 where he is 63rd.
Ricky Barnes | $7,800 – If you believe that current form portends success at an easy course like the TPC of Louisiana, then Barnes is your man. He has back to back top 10 finishes on Tour and is 47th in P4E350-400 and 40th in P4E450-500. Barnes hasn’t seen the top 40 in five starts at the Zurich Classic.
Boo Weekley | $7,800 – Boo isn’t scared of the TPC of Louisiana as he has four top 15s in seven starts here (much like our friend Steve Stricker). He’s 75th in P5E550-600 and 76th in P4E350-400, but the rest of his profile doesn’t work for the week. He struggled early in the season, but he’s coming around with three cuts made in a row, but no top 25s. Yet.
Keegan Bradley | $7,700 – Bradley’s made back to back cuts at the Zurich and has finished in the top 25 in each trip. He’s also made three cuts in his last four events on Tour, but does not have a top 25 finish in that run. He’s 30th in SG:T2G so if the putter is finally out of its slumber then we could see a top 10.
Anirban Lahiri | $7,700 – Never come to me seeking Lahiri advice. I never get him right. He has some elements to his game (30th in P5E550-600 and 51st in P4E450-500) that should allow him to succeed. He makes his debut here and is in off a T42 at the Masters.
Si Woo Kim | $7,700 – Kim’s run of three made cuts ended last week at the Valero. His one standout stat for the week is his 48th spot in P4E450-500. He makes his debut at the Zurich Classic this week.
Freddie Jacobson | $7,600 – Freddie Jac hurt a lot of DFSers last week and that’s a great time to jump back on a golfer. He’s made back to back cuts at the Zurich without a finish in the top 25. The only part of his profile that fits is he’s 31st in P4E350-400. His putter deserted him last week as putters do from time to time.
Sean O’Hair | $7,600 – His tee to green game isn’t elite (96th this year), but he has a blananced scoring ledger which could lead to success. He’s 44th in P5E550-600 103rd in P4E350-400, 27th in P4E450-500 and 96 th P3E200-225.
Jamie Donaldson | $7,600 – Donaldson has made six cuts in a row on Tour with three top 25s in his last three events. The run of solid form should carryover to an easier course. He’s another player who if this was 2015, we’d be all over him as his profile is great from the prior year. However, it’s 2016 and this is the Welshman we have. I’ll still roster him and I may even use him in cash if I need to.
K.J. Choi | $7,500 – Choi will likely struggle to stay above water on the par 5s, but if he can score enough on the rest of the holes, he can surprise. He’s 50th in P4E350-400, 32nd in P4E450-500 and 40th in P3E200-225. He’s made five of six cuts here with one top 10.
David Hearn | $7,500 – Hearn has two 20s in his last four Tour events and has made all six cuts at TPC of Louisiana. Half of those finishes have ended in the top 25 including a T6 last year. His scoring efficiency is solid in all categories except for P4E450-500 (125th).
Chez Reavie | $7,400 – Reavie is 16th in SG:T2G this year and has scored well on par 4s (43rd in P4E450-500) and par 3s (60th in P3E200-225). He’s made just two of six cuts at the Zurich with a top finish of T42 way back in 2008. His run of six straight cuts made on Tour ended at last week’s Valero Open.
Luke List | $7,400 – List debuted at the Zurch in 2013 and finished T31. He’s made four straight cuts on Tour and crushes par 5s in our key distance (16th in P5E550-600).
Kyle Reifers | $7,300 – Reifers has played this event three times since it’s move to the TPC of Louisiana and made the cuts twice. He’s made five of the last six cuts and had two top 15s in that run. This year he sits 72nd in P5E550-600 and 43rd in P4E350-400.
Kyle Stanley | $7,300 – Stanley hand a solo third her in 2013 and his profile has one outstanding scoring mark. He’s 29th in P4E350-400. The American has made three cuts in a row and eight of his last nine with two top 25s.
Seung-yul Noh | $7,300 – T66, MC, WIN, WD. Those are Noh’s results in his four starts at the Zurich. One of these things is not like the other.
John Huh | $7,300 – Huh comes into the Zurich struggling with no finish better than T68 in his last three starts. His profile fits as he’s 59th in SG:T2G and is in the top 100 in all scoring categories except P4E450-500 (108th). He played here for the first time last year and finished T48.
Harold Varner III | $7,300 – HVIII’s results are highly volatile so he’s a GPP option this week as he has done well on P5E550-600 (33rd). He comes in off a T9 at the Valero which is his best finish of the year.
Chad Campbell | $7,200 – Campbell’s statistical profile has a couple of superior items (19th in P5E550-600 and 23rd in SG:T2G) so we have to take notice. As we dig further, we see that he can’t putt (184 th in SG:P) and has made only four of 11 cuts in 2016. But….those four cuts have ended with three top 25s and he was T8 here last year.
John Senden | $7,200 – Senden is 33rd in P5E550-600 and 39th in P4E350-400 and that means good things this week. He’s only 89th in SG:T2G, but the Aussie’s made three of his last five cuts on Tour. He’s made six of eight cuts here (though only one of his last three).
Lucas Glover | $7,200 – If a course has easy greens then I naturally gravitate to poor putters for sleepers. Glover is nearly the poorest of all poor putters. He has four top 10 finishes at the course in eight starts with his last one (T4) in 2013.
Colt Knost | $7,200 – Withdrew
Patrick Rodgers | $7,200 – I’m going to give Rodgers another chance this week even if he hurt me so last week. He’s 38th in SG:T2G and his scoring is solid enough especially in P5E550-600 as he’s 15th this year. This is his first start at the TPC of Louisiana.
Jhonattan Vegas | $7,100 – Vegas again? Sure, why not? He’s fourth in my statistical model this week. He debuted here last year and placed T36 and missed the cut last week after making three straight cuts.
Will Wilcox | $7,100 – In a year that has been disappointing, Wilcox has some parts of his game that could lead to success here. He’s 85th in P5E550-600 and third in P4E450-500. He finished T34 two years ago in his debut and then missed the cut last year. I’ll probably put him in a GPP lineup or two.
Whee Kim | $7,100 – Kim has made five straight cuts on Tour and finished T8 here last year. His stats don’t line up at all for success here, but perhaps his form continues.
George McNeill | $7,000 – McNeill has three top 25 finishes at the Zurich in the last five years, but his profile doesn’t fit. His only redeeming quality is in P4E350-400 where he is 65th. He’s just four of nine in cuts made this year.
Will MacKenzie | $7,000 – Withdrew
Blayne Barber | $7,000 – Barber is 26th in P5E550-600 and 64th in P3E200-225 and finished T8 here last year. He is out of form with three straight missed cuts, but that scoring acumen is hard to pass up.
Stuart Appleby | $6,900 – Appleby has made four cuts in four trips to TPC of Louisiana and has two top 10 finishes. He’s alternated made and missed cuts in his last four Tour events. There is nothing in his profile that stands out, but it’s worked out year after year.
Nick Taylor | $6,900 – Taylor is 49th in P4E450-500 and 16th in P3E200-225 so he has a couple of the scoring elements we’d like to see. He’s made four straight cuts on Tour and seven of his last eight. He debuted here last year with a T48 and looks like he will improve on that this year.
Andres Romero | $6,900 – Past champion (2008) alert! He’s had just one other top 10 here since then (T8 in 2011) and made three of seven cuts overall. His scoring stats should work for this week as he’s 58th in P4E350-400, eighth in P4E450-500 and 16th in P3E200-225.
Robert Streb | $6,900 – 2015 Robert Streb! Where for art thou 2015 Robert Streb? If we could find him he’d be a star this week.
David Toms | $6,700 – Toms is from Louisiana. Full stop. He’s made eight of nine cuts at TPC Louisiana with three top 20 finishes and is currently seventh in my statistical model this week. He’s made three straight cuts on Tour including a T14 at the RBC Heritage.
Jason Bohn | $6,700 – Bohn is high risk/high reward this week as he works his way back from a heart attack. His profile from 2015 fits, but it’s 2016 so we can’t expect him to be fully back to last year’s status. That said, he’ll be low-owned and can score when he’s on.
Spencer Levin | $6,700 – Levin’s 75th standing in SG:T2G gives him enough of a game to actualize on his 54th standing in P5E550-600 and 41st in P3E200-225. He’s made two of six cuts at the Zurich and finished T28 both times.
Morgan Hoffmann | $6,700 – Hoffmann is criminally underpriced this week even with a profile that doesn’t quite fit the course. He is 51st in P4E350-400 which is important this week. He’s made three cuts in three trips, but doesn’t have a top 20 finish.
Hudson Swafford | $6,700 – Swafford can score as he’s 68th in P5E550-600, 17th in P4E450-500and 43rd in P3E200-225. He finished T12 here last year after missing the cut in his first start. However….his form is poor with three straight missed cuts.
Erik Compton | $6,600 – has solid course history, but always a chance that his health gets the best of him. He’s made three of four cuts made and back to back top 15 finishes at the Zurich.
D.A. Points | $6,600 – Points has made three cuts in a row at the Zurich and four of his last five. He’s made five cuts in a row on the PGA and Web.com Tours, but doesn’t have a finish in the top 40 in any of those weekends. He’s also has a couple of stats in his favor (53rd in P4E350-400 and 79th in P4E450-500).
Roberto Castro | $6,600 – Castro is 27th P4E350-400, 45th in P3E200-225, and 29th in SG:T2G this year. He’s made three of his last four cuts on Tour, but only one of three weekends at the Zurich. It’s a solid profile and his form is good though course history isn’t on his side.
Retief Goosen | $6,500 – Goosen’s scoring will have to come from the shorter holes this week as he’s 79th in P4E350-400 and 16th in P4E450-500. He’s made three cuts in a row at the Zurich with each finish in the top 30 and has made seven straight PGA Tour cuts. Tasty!
Brett Stegmaier | $6,500 – Stego’s scoring prowess fits this course nicely. He’s 47th in P5E550-600, 41st in P4E450-500 and 69th in P3E200-225. It’s his maiden trip around the TPC of Louisiana course as he tries to break a streak of three missed cuts (and a withdrawal).
Andrew Loupe | $6,400 – Loupe’s length (10th in driving distance) and proclivity on par 5s (14th in P5E550-600) gives him a puncher’s chance this week. He’s missed three of his last four cuts on Tour and has made one of three cuts at the Zurich. But, the volatility of his results make him a potential GPP star.
Kelly Kraft | $6,400 – Kraft has made five cuts in a row on the PGA and Web.com Tours come into the Zurich Classic. He is 22nd in P5E550-600 and 74th in P4E450-500. This is his first time here.
Alex Cejka | $6,300 – The Czech Republic-born German has some skills that could make him a sneaky play this week. He’s good on the par 4s (P4E350-400 – 99th and P4E450-500 31st) and even better on the par 3s (P3E200-225 – 16th). He has three top 25s in seven starts at the TPC of Louisiana.
Ben Crane | $6,300 – Crane is oddly well placed in the scoring areas we are looking at this week. He’s 61st in P5E550-600, 35th in P4E350-400 and 52nd in P3E200-225. It’s the putter that carries the day usually for Crane and that advantage won’t be as great this week.
Robert Garrigus | $6,100 – Garrigus is the kind of guy who can surprise here because he can’t putt (200th in SG:P), but drives the ball (18th) and can score on the longer holes (58th in P5E550-600 and 20th in P4E450-500). He finished T5 here two years ago though he’s missed three straight cuts on Tour.
Tim Wilkinson | $6,000 – The Aussie played well enough last week when I recommended him, so let’s throw him on here again. He’s made three of five cuts here with a solo third back in 2008 and back to back made cuts in the last two years. Wilkinson has also made back to back cuts on Tour.
Sam Saunders | $6,000 – Saunders has putted well, but nothing in his profile for this year lines up for success here.
Michael Kim | $6,000 – Has made seven of 11 cuts in 2016 so if you are looking for some safety this week in a stars/scrubs lineup Kim may offer it up as Kim makes his debut.
D.J. Trahan | $5,900 – As we sink into the below $6,000 crowd we look for any tidbit in a profile or course history or current form to hang our hat on. For Trahan, that morsel is his 21st place standing in P5E550-600 He’s made the cut in his last two events, but neither finish is in the top 50.
D.H. Lee | $5,900 – Lee has made the cut in each of his three starts at the TPC of Louisiana including a T8 in 2012. Course history is all we have as his profile is awful for the course and his form is just as poor.
Zach Wright | $5,600 – He’s a senior at LSU so he’s certainly familiar with the area.
Tim Yelverton | $5,500 – Has played three times on the Web.com Tour and never made a cut. Is a teaching pro at Old Waverly in Mississippi.
Good luck this week! Head over to DraftKings to choose your squad for this week.
DraftKings Scoring
Roster size: 6 Golfers
POINT SCORING
Golfers on each team will accumulate points as follows:
- Per Hole Scoring
- Double Eagle (DBL EAG): +20 PTs
- Eagle (EAG): +8 PTs
- Birdie (BIR): +3 PTs
- Par (PAR): +0.5 PTs
- Bogey (BOG): -0.5 PTs
- Double Bogey (DBL BOG): -1 PT
- Worse than Double Bogey (WORSE DBL BOG): -1 PT
- Tournament Finish Scoring
- 1st: 30 PTs
- 2nd: 20 PTs
- 3rd: 18 PTs
- 4th: 16 PTs
- 5th: 14 PTs
- 6th: 12 PTs
- 7th: 10 PTs
- 8th: 9 PTs
- 9th: 8 PTs
- 10th: 7 PTs
- 11th–15th: 6 PTs
- 16th–20th: 5 PTs
- 21st–25th: 4 PTs
- 26th–30th: 3 PTs
- 31st–40th: 2 PTs
- 41st-50th: 1 PTs
- Streaks and Bonuses
- Streak of 3 Birdies of Better (MAX 1 Per Round) (3+ BIR STRK): +3 PTs
- Bogey Free Round (BOG FREE RD): +3 PTs
- All 4 Rounds Under 70 Strokes (ALL 4 RDS UND 70): +5 PTs
- Hole in One (HOLE IN ONE): +10 PTs
Scoring Notes: Ties for a finishing position will not reduce or average down points. For example, if 2 golfers tie for 3rd place, each will receive the 18 fantasy points for the 3rd place finish result. Playoff Holes will not count towards final scoring, with the exception of the “finishing position” scoring. For example, the golfer who wins the tournament will receive the sole award of 1st place points, but will not accrue points for their scoring result in the individual playoff holes.
Player Lock Notes: All golfers lock at the time the first golfer tees off on day 1 of an event.
Full rules are located here for DraftKings Daily Fantasy golf.