The First Pitch:

Opening Day has come and gone. Well, not the real Opening Day. Just some made for TV Opening Day. We got to see the Battle of Texas. Today is the real Opening Day. It’s time to play hooky from work – call in sick and plant yourself in front of the TV or at your local watering hole. Watch games all day long. What else do you have to do? That spreadsheet will be there tomorrow.

The Miami Marlins decided to start their shenanigans early this season and promote top prospect Jose Fernandez to the starting rotation after shelving Nate Eovaldi and Henderson Alvarez with surprise shoulder injuries. Fernandez is clearly the gem of the pitching prospects in the Marlins system (and certainly one of the top five in all of baseball). However, the Marlins’ don’t seem to understand the basic rules of managing the arbitration and free agency clocks of young players.

The Marlins have other options – both right handed (Jacob Turner) and left handed (Brad Hand) who have MLB experience already. It’s not that Fernandez can’t succeed. I give him a better than 50% shot to be a bit better than league average over the entire season. That’s not the point. The Marlins aren’t going to win a lot of games this year. Fernandez isn’t going to help them make the playoffs. And when he can help, he’ll probably be too expensive for the Marlins to keep. This is a failure of the Marlins front office to acquire enough AAA pitching depth to protect their young pitchers and to understand basic baseball economics.

We’ve seen some big extensions over the last week with Justin Verlander, Buster Posey and Adam Wainwright signing big deals. This is on top of Felix Hernandez’s big deal early in spring. This looks to be the new market inefficiency; the new “Moneyball”. All four of those extensions carry risk. Inherently, pitchers carry more injury risk. There has already been smoke around King Felix’s elbow this offseason. Both Verlander and Wainwright should be into their decline period a couple of years before their extensions complete. And a lot of Buster Posey’s value is locked up in his ability to stay at catcher. If he has to move off of catcher to first base (perhaps?) then Posey loses a significant chunk of his value.

Rick Ankiel took the major league lead in HRs with his pinch hit three run homer off of a fading Derek Lowe. That Ankiel is still plying his trade at the major league level is a tribute to his work ethic, mental fortitude and his otherworldly talent at playing baseball. In perhaps even more stunning news, the Astros took the game 8 to 2 over the Rangers. For a day, they sit atop the standings for all of baseball to see.

If Ron Washington is going to rely on Derek Lowe in high leverage situations, it’s going to be a long year for the Rangers. Yes, they lost Josh Hamilton, but perhaps more importantly they lost a good bit of a very successful bullpen from last season. It will be interesting to see if they can solidify their bullpen quickly.

DraftKings.com Team of the Day:

Today we’ll be playing the $20K Opening Day contest over at DraftKings.com. There is also a free roll available from DraftKings – sign up and give it a try for nothing. Here are the best values we found plus a player to avoid and a deep play for the risk takers out there. Don’t forget to claim your deposit bonus!

Justin Verlander | P | Tigers | $11,600 – Thanks to Aaron Gleeman for the tip. Verlander is 7-1 with a 1.70 ERA since 2010 against the Twins. Also, Verlander is quite good at baseball.

Brett Anderson | P | Phillies | $7,600 – There are a lot of pitchers to choose from (Stephen Strasburg, Jon Niese, Jeff Samardzjia) who all have great records against their opponents. That’s one of the reasons they are Opening Day starters. So, let’s dig a little deeper and take a starter that isn’t on everyone’s radar – Anderson is 7-3 with a 1.76 ERA over 81 2/3 IP against the Mariners. It is likely that few players will be on Anderson as he faces off against King Felix.

Nick Hundley | C | Padres | $2,700 – If we are going big at pitcher, we need to go small elsewhere. Hundley is a hunch based on his hot spring (1.064 OPS). He has struggled against lefties in the past so he is certainly a risk, but no guts, no glory.

Ryan Howard | 1B | Phillies | $4,000– Most people will probably dismiss Howard after his awful season last year. However, he’s had great success against Braves starter Tim Hudson. He’s got seven HRs over 65 ABs versus Hudson (who is not the biggest strikeout pitcher). Howard also looks to have dropped a lot of weight in the offseason so maybe good things are in line for him this season.

Howie Kendrick | 2B | Angels | $3,300 – Second base is a wasteland (see below) for Opening Day. So, we’ll go with another gut call and hope that Kendrick’s hot spring carries over for at least one more day.

Will Middlebrooks | 3B | Phillies | $3,800 – Middlebrooks pounded left handers in his MLB debut last year to the tune of a .906 OPS. He gets a lefty in CC Sabathia who I expect to struggle this season.

Alexei Ramirez | SS | Phillies | $3,100 – The Cuban Missile is 9 for 23 against Royals Opening Day starter James Shields along with two HRs.

Shin-Soo Choo | OF | Phillies | $4,300 – Not many Reds have faced Angels starter Jered Weaver. However, Choo knows him from his time in the AL. Choo owns a 1.105 OPS versus Weaver in 29 ABs.

Andre Ethier | OF | Dodgers | $3,700 – I don’t expect a lot from Ethier this season, but I do expect something from him on Opening Day against Matt Cain. Ethier carries a .career 456 batting average against Cain. He hasn’t shown a lot of power in those appearances, but should be a solid addition to your squad.

Giancarlo Stanton | OF | Marlins | $4,800– Stanton will be my stud hitter. He faces a stud in Stephen Strasburg, but he’s got a career 1.363 OPS at Nats Park in 91 PAs and has five hits in 13 ABs against Strasburg.

Stud to Dud

Robinson Cano | 2B | Yankees | $4,700– Cano has faced Jon Lester 57 times. He’s managed just four doubles and nine singles. He’s compiled a 228/274/298 line in those 57 ABs. He’s the most expensive 2B – stay away.

Dud to Stud

David Ross | C | Red Sox | – $3,500 – This is a deeeeep play. Ross has power and kills lefties. If the Red Sox decide to start him, I’d take a chance. He’s got two HRs in 13 career ABs against Yankees starter CC Sabathia.