July 30^th Daily Notes: The Weekend Update

I would like to apologize to all my readers for not having Daily Notes available Sunday morning or Monday morning. I have been feeling very under-the-weather and fell asleep at my desk while attempting to write the notes. I hope this extra-long notes update helps. Also, I will separate all injuries from the news and notes (strong or poor performances) from the weekend. Also, since Saturday and Sunday’s box score performance updates are going to be dated at this point, I will use this opportunity to use specific performances as a gateway to a much larger discussion on the overall value of that player going forward, as well as analysis of his performance to date.

Hitting News and Notes:

Saturday:

San Diego Padres first baseman Yonder Alonso went 3-for-5 on Saturday with four RBI. Alonso has had an injury plagued season so far, with just 263 plate appearances. He’s on pace for much better numbers (per plate appearance) than last year. His power seems to be slowly lessening each year in correspondence with his impressive strikeout rate decline. At 14.4 percent, Alonso’s strikeout rate is lower than even his most recent stop in Triple-A where he racked up a 14.7 percent strikeout rate in 409 plate appearances in 2011. Over the last ten games Alonso has five multi-hit performances and is hitting .287 on the season. He remains a great option for batting average in deeper leagues. Alonso also has a surprising three steals in his last ten games as well.

Toronto Blue Jays first baseman/third baseman Edwin Encarnacion followed up his 3-for-4, three run, two home run, and five RBI game on Friday night with a 4-for-4 performance on Saturday with one RBI. Edwin is very interesting heading down the stretch, as he’s a career .313 hitter against off-speed pitches, but is only hitting .230 against them this year with an unchanged strikeout rate against those pitches. Edwin has seven walks against just ten strikeouts on off-speed pitches in 61 at-bats against those pitches in 2013. Edwin is hitting .278 now after his back-to-back superb performances but he has room for even more batting average improvement as the season trudges along. I have him ranked higher than Prince Fielder and Joey Votto for the stretch run. He could even surpass Chris Davis (who is second in my first base rankings behind Paul Goldschmidt).

Minnesota Twins first baseman/designated hitter Justin Morneau went 2-for-4 with a home run against the Seattle Mariners on Saturday. This was Morneau’s first home run since July 8^th, and just his eighth on the season. Morneau is hitting a disappointing .180/.270/.348 this month (a .618 OPS). This is not the follow-up Morneau and the Twins were hoping for after his June performance in which he hit .298/.341/.476 (.821 OPS). Some note-worthy news for Morneau is that according to the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, the Twins and Orioles have been engaged in trade discussions that could send Morneau to the Orioles to play DH. Morneau would see a significant value increase playing in that lineup and that ballpark. Fantasy owners looking for any sort of needed boost in the standings, would do well to trade for Morneau in a speculative move.

Boston Red Sox shortstop and gate-keeper of the disabled list, Stephen Drew went 3-for-4 with three runs scored, two home runs, and five RBI on Saturday as helped the Sox power past the Orioles 7-3. This night for Drew is irrelevant in the grander scheme, but it does allow me an outlet to discuss the oft-injured shortstop. Drew has increased his strikeout rate up to 26 percent this season, a career high by an immense margin. Drew has a .185 isolated power (slugging minus batting average) which is the highest since his excellent 2008 season when he hit 21 home runs and batted .291 with a .333 on-base percentage. Drew has really gone with more power and less batting average this season it hasn’t changed his overall impact. In Drew’s last full season he had a .315 wOBA and 92 wRC+. This season he has a .316 wOBA and a 94 wRC+. The point of all this is that Drew hasn’t rebounded. Fantasy owners would be wise to give up on him for good at this point.

San Francisco Giants second baseman Marco Scutaro gets a lot of love in the fantasy community for his impressive batting average skills. Scutaro went 2-for-4 on Saturday in what was his third straight multi-hit game. Scutaro has a .313 batting average (best in the past three seasons) thanks to a steady three-year decrease in strikeout rate. His strikeout rate is all the way down to a career low level of 6.2 percent which is quite frankly, absurd. Even better, is that his walk rate is back up to 8.5 percent where it was in 2011 with the Boston Red Sox. The problem for Scutaro is that he just hits for such an empty batting average. He only has two home runs this season in 388 plate appearances after seven in 683 in 2012 and seven in 445 plate appearances in 2011. The 37-year-old middle infielder has definitely aged better than a fine wine or cheese, but he just isn’t as valuable as some people think. How empty is Scutaro’s batting average help? Eighty-nine percent of Scutaro’s ESPN.com player rater value has come from his contributions to your batting average. For players with a positive player rater value, only the White Sox Gordon Beckham has more of his value coming from batting average. Beckham has achieved 103 percent of his player rater value from his batting average so far. Additionally, Scutaro has just a .250 batting average against breaking balls this year and his strikeout rate against those pitches has doubled over last season. Scutaro hit .293 against breaking balls in 2012 and .300 against them in 2011. Trade him away in NL-only leagues for someone like Junior Lake of the Chicago Cubs, who has much more upside but much less of a track record. And in overall deep mixed leagues, take a look at Houston middle infielder Jonathan Villar who has speed to burn and decent on-base skills.

Colorado Rockies catcher Wilin Rosario went 2-for-4 with a three-run home run on Saturday. It was just number 14 on the season for Rosario as his isolated power is significantly down from last season (.191, in 2012 it was .260). There is some hope though for the young catcher to turn it around, as he has improved his plate approach against sliders (in what is albeit a small sample). In 2012 Rosario hit .162 with a .389 OPS against the pitch from right handers. In 2013 from right handers he has hit .286 with a .822 OPS against the slider. That is a very marked improvement. Overall, Rosario has half his home runs against breaking pitches and half of them against hard stuff. This is compared to 23 of his 28 home runs coming off the hard stuff last season. Ideally, Rosario will improve on his 4.7 percent walk rate at some point as he continues to mature as a hitter. If not, being the Mark Trumbo of catchers isn’t such a terrible thing.

Baltimore Orioles outfielder Nate McLouth went 2-for-4 on Saturday with a double. Unfortunately for McLouth owners, he has suddenly stopped stealing bases lately. He’s still hitting the same .284/.355/.420 that he was hitting earlier in the season (albeit with slightly less power), but he has just one stolen base this month on just one attempt. This is extremely surprising because McLouth came into the month of July with 24 stolen bases on 20 attempts, an excellent success rate. With just 17 RBI this season, McLouth must be running in order to keep his fantasy value above the 10-team mixed league threshold. He’s a borderline hold right now in those shallow leagues. If he doesn’t begin running soon though, he needs to be dropped.

Pitching News and Notes:

Saturday:

New York Yankees starting pitcher Ivan Nova pitched seven strong innings against the Tampa Bay Rays but was outdueled by fellow young-gun Chris Archer as the Yankees lost 1-0. Nova struck out eight and walked just three as he gave up one earned run on six hits. Nova has been absolutely excellent this season in terms of peripherals. He has increased his strikeout rate by an extremely impressive margin over the past three seasons. In 2011 it was 13.9 percent, in 2012 20.3 percent, and now in 2013 it’s 23.8 percent, all while maintaining a more than respectable 7.8 percent walk rate in each of those seasons.

Nova’s improvements over the past few seasons have been thanks to the development of his curveball. With two strikes on hitters in 2011, Nova had just a 45.12 percent strikeout rate with the hook. Additionally, batters hit .195 against it with two strikes. In 2012 and 2013 however, Nova has recorded a 66.02 percent and 67.14 percent strikeout rate respectively with the pitch in two-strike counts. In the past two years batters are hitting .081 (14-for-173) against his curveball with two strikes.

Here is a look at Nova’s overall whiff/swing rate (the percentage time that a batter swings and misses on a pitch as a function of all swings on such a pitch).

Nova must be owned in all formats, including 10-team mixed leagues. His 22.3 percent ownership rate in ESPN.com standard leagues is just way too low.

Washington Nationals Pitcher Dan Haren was excellent against the Mets on Saturday. He gave up just three hits and one earned run in seven strong innings. It was just the fourth time all year that Haren made it seven innings. As has been the story for Haren all year long, it was once again in a good start that he didn’t allow a home run. When he’s bad, the home runs are what do him in. In seven starts this season in which he has not allowed a home run, Haren has a 2.76 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. The problem of course is that his good starts are wholly unpredictable, as his overall numbers sit at a 5.49 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. For what it is worth, Haren has allowed just two home runs this month, compared to seven, six and six the previous three months. It needs to be noted however that his starts this month have come against the Phillies, Marlins, Mets and Pirates.

New York Mets pitcher Dillon Gee was shelled for four runs on six hits in seven innings against the Nationals on Saturday. Gee allowed three home runs, the most he’s allowed in a game since June 22^nd against the Phillies. In his past ten starts before this game (a very selective endpoint) Gee had a 2.39 ERA and more importantly, Gee has 55 strikeouts and just 18 walks in those starts, a 3.08 strikeout to walk ratio. The problem though, is inconsistency. An inconsistency has been prevalent all throughout his career and this season. In July and April Gee has a 2.88 ERA and 5.96 ERA respectively. Ironically, in those months he has nearly identical strikeout to walk numbers: 17 strikeouts to 11 walks in July, and 18 strikeouts against nine walks in April.

In June and May, Gee has a 2,73 ERA and 5.46 ERA respectively. Ironically once again, his strikeout to walk numbers in these months are also nearly identical. In June, Gee recorded 28 strikeouts against seven walks and in May, he racked up 31 strikeouts against just eight walks. Gee has shown problems with consistency regarding how hittable he is, making too many mistake pitches (home runs), and control (strikeout to walk ratio). He is too inconsistent to be worth my time and yours as well.

Chicago Cubs young lefty Chris Rusin pitched well Saturday and has now done so in back-to-back starts. In his past two starts spanning 12 innings, Rusin has allowed just five hits and two earned runs. However, he has struck out just seven and walked four. Fantasy owners in deep leagues should pick up Rusin now in case he’s the next Jeff Locke. Shallow league owners should wait a bit longer in case this is just a flash in the pan. Rusin has shown strand rate issues in the minors, as evidenced by his 68.3 percent career strand rate. Rusin will be fortunate to not run into this problem should he continue to limit hits, but I remain somewhat skeptical.

Toronto Blue Jays starter Josh Johnson got clobbered for the third straight game, this time at the hands of the pitiful Houston Astros. Johnson has given up 19 earned runs in his past three starts and needs to be dropped in every single format. His fastball has been clobbered this season to the tune of a .333 batting average and a .976 OPS. Opponents hit .280 with a .799 OPS against the pitch in 2012, .232 with a .636 OPS in 2010, and .240 with a .649 OPS in 2009.

Hitting News and Notes:

Sunday:

Washington Nationals shortstop Ian Desmond went 4-for-4 with three runs scored and two RBI on Sunday in a 14-1 drubbing of the Mets. Desmond looks to be on pace for another great season but there’s even more important growth signs here. In 2012, 71.67 percent of Desmond’s extra- base hits came against hard stuff. In 2013, just 50 percent of his extra-base hits have come against hard stuff, so Desmond is showing an ability to recognize more pitches and hit them harder. This is despite an increased strikeout rate up to 23.7 percent. His increased walk rate (now up to 7.0 percent) supports the theory though. Assuming Desmond doesn’t fall off the wagon the rest of the season, this needs to be counted as a growth year for Desmond even if his batting average and slugging percentage come in at a lower number than 2012.

Washington Nationals outfielder Denard Span also had an exceptional game on Sunday in their big win over the Mets. Span went 4-for-4 with three runs scored, three RBI and a home run. It was the second straight game with a home run for Span, as he has really turned it on as of late. Span’s biggest issue that has plagued him this season has been exaggerated struggles against left handed pitching. Span is hitting just .146 against lefties this year after hitting .301 against them in 2012 and .240 against them in 2011. Span doesn’t really have a career platoon split as he hits .275 against lefties and .285 against righties in his career. If Span can get back on track against lefties, his chances for continued improvement throughout the remainder of the season is likely.

New York Yankees shortstop and captain Derek Jeter homered in the first pitch he saw against Matt Moore in Sunday’s game. Overall, Jeter went 2-for-4. Jeter is a middle tier middle-infield option for the remaining duration of the season. He won’t steal many bases, (maybe five or six at best), but he should still be fine in terms of batting average.

Pitching News and Notes:

Sunday:

San Francisco starting pitcher Tim Lincecum resumed his maddening march of inconsistency on Sunday, as he pitched seven great innings. He gave up just four hits (two solo home runs) while walking just two and striking out 10. He now has 34 strikeouts against just seven walks in three of his past four starts. Of course, the one in between his no-hitter and this past start was an eight earned run blowup extravaganza in just three innings where he struck out just two and walked one. Lincecum remains a very risky option in fantasy but he continues to show signs of life.

Boston Red Sox starter Jon Lester was incredibly impressive on Sunday, striking out eight and walking just two while yielding just four hits and two earned runs against Baltimore. Lester has now been excellent in back to back starts. Lester used mostly fastballs (two seam and four seam) and changeups, getting away from the cutter and breaking ball. Lester has been known to struggle at time with the consistency of his delivery, and right now it looks like everything is clicking for Lester.

Houston Astros starter Jarred Cosart continues to limits runs and hits despite an absurdly bad strikeout to walk ratio. Cosart was at it once again on Sunday as he gave up just four hits and one earned run despite five walks and only one strikeout against the Toronto Blue Jays. Cosart has a quality start in each of his three major league starts and faces the Twins on the road next on Saturday. Eventually Cosart will blow up should he continue these poor strikeout to walk numbers. Start him with caution next week.

Tampa Bay Rays starter Matt Moore finally snapped his streak of quality starts as he gave up five earned runs on eight hits in just five innings against the New York Yankees on Sunday. He allowed two home runs. One to Alfonso Soriano and the other to Derek Jeter (both went to right field and both were barely home runs). Hopefully this isn’t the start of another rough patch for the young left hander.

Phil Hughes was victimized big time by Wil Myers on Sunday. Myers hit two home runs off of Hughes, accounting for four of the five earned runs given up by Hughes on the day. Myers first home run was a mammoth shot on a hanging breaking ball that came on the heels of a poor inning by Matt Moore of the Rays. Hughes is the human home run torch of the AL East right now, and often times makes Heath Bell look like he limits home runs well.

Monday Injury Notes:

Cincinnati Reds outfielder Shin-Soo Choo was left out of the lineup on Monday with a sprained ankle after he was hit by a pitch on Sunday. Choo is denying the seriousness of the injury, but this has the makings of a disabled list stint. Keep your eyes peeled as fantasy owners, cause this could be the big break Billy Hamilton has been waiting for.

According to Andy Masur of the San Diego Padres broadcast, Carlos Quentin was scratched from Monday’s lineup because of a “tweak of his left knee”. No surprise for the oft-injured outfielder, as he seems to spend half of every season on the disabled list. We will monitor the situation, hopefully he doesn’t need to hit the disabled list, but it could mean temporary playing time boosts to both Will Venable and Chris Denorfia (whom would both lose value should they have to play against same-handed starting pitchers as well).

Stream-Em- Tuesday

Scott Kazmir | CLE | vs. CWS | 32 percent owned

Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | vs. HOU | 32.5 percent owned

Juan Nicasio | COL | @ ATL | 5.0 percent owned

Jake Arrieta | ChC | vs. MIL | 0.0 percent owned

Leave-Em:

Jake Peavy | CWS | @ CLE | 89.7 percent owned

Yovani Gallardo | MIL | @ ChC | 59.8 percent owned

*This is a reminder that the “Leave-Em” portion is for pitchers owned in more than 50 percent of leagues that should be sat. All other probable starters not listed in the “Stream-Em” category that fall below the 50 percent ownership threshold, are not streamer worthy in shallow leagues*