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2014 Fantasy Baseball: Break the Streak

Rick Porcello
Photo Credit: Roger DeWitt

It has been 15 or so years since I paid attention to the sports wrestling entertainment industry. But thanks to the Twitter Universe, I learned that the Undertaker’s streak at Wrestlemania has ended. It spanned 20-plus years and saw him rack up 21 victories. Granted, we are talking about orchestrated outcomes (usually), but his shocking loss still created some wonderful GIFs (this too), and isn’t that what really matters?

Fantasy baseball and real-life baseball have its number of streaks as well. Plenty of them aren’t important, but they are occasionally brought up. There can be a distinct number of reasons to bring up a streak, but in the case of fantasy baseball analysis, they are usually used to justify a player or situation. I say let’s try to stop always banking on the past and try to determine the future. Much like the Undertaker setting up his fall to Brock Lesner, these following fantasy and real-life baseball streaks are ready to end.

Jay Bruce Does Not Make it 30 Home Runs

Bruce is looking to make it a fourth straight season with 30 homers or more and I am here to draw a line in the sand. It won’t happen. I recently covered Bruce here at the Fix, and when you notice his trends in K-rate, BB%, and take into account new age curve data, he will not be headed for a breakout season. And I am actually buying into a small decline in offensive production. Much like Hulk Hogan kicking out a split second too late versus the Ultimate Warrior, Bruce will come up short by a dinger or two, or perhaps a few. And with that, the streak is over.

Brandon Phillips Does Not Hit 18 Home Runs

Sticking with the Cincinnati Reds team, you hear plenty of fantasy analysts discuss Brandon Phillips and his year in and year out consistency. But all I see is a player in decline. Some expect the 32-year-old second baseman to have a fifth straight year with exactly 18 home runs. This prediction isn’t really about putting the kibosh on what is already an unlikely occurrence, but instead, this prediction is here to say that Phillips will have a steep decline in offensive production in 2014, making him a fringe top-12 fantasy second baseman. His ISO, OBP, and wOBA are all in multi-season decline. His stolen bases fell off big time last season (just five), along with his Speed Rating. Even Phillips’s strikeout percentage increased in 2013. No thanks.

Rick Porcello Gets His ERA Under 4.00

For a guy who has trouble delivering results, Porcello still manages to be quite the topic of fantasy baseball conversation every season. He hasn’t produced an ERA under 4.00 since his rookie season in 2009. We are talking about four straight seasons of just straight out blah. On a positive note, his peripheral numbers indicate his results should be better. In 2014, the defense is a lot better too. Not perfect (get well soon Jose Iglesias), but better. However, Porcello has to be good for it to matter. And in 2013, he improved. The K-rate spiked and the walk rate remained low. He still has some issues against lefty hitters, but last season showed modest improvement. The reinvention of his curveball is likely the biggest reason for that success. Considering all the positive changes from last season and the defense entering this year, Porcello is primed to break his streak of 4.00 ERAs.

Robinson Cano Will Not be the Number One Second Baseman Drafted in 2015

This will be the final season Cano is the first second baseman off the board. His reign as the consensus number one 2B began in 2011. But his time is over now. Safeco Field isn’t as bad for hitters as it used to be, but the projections expect Cano’s dingers to drop into the low 20’s. Batting average is never easy to predict, but as long as it isn’t otherworldly for Cano, Jason Kipnis will be giving him a good run for his money at the position this season. Kipnis has 20-20 upside (or even 30 for SBs) and although his strikeout percentage saw a spike last season, his IFFB percentage was a ridiculously low 1.5%. Line drives are fickle, but Kipnis has a 23% line drive rate for his career and has shown above average distance on his flyballs and home runs. It appears he hits the ball hard. All hail the new king.

Jonathan Papelbon Falls Short of 29 Saves

Since 2006, Papelbon has recorded at least 29 saves each season. If he was able to get that done in 2014, it would be his ninth year in a row. He won’t. The velocity continues to decline and is currently hovering at 90 miles per hour. His release point appears to be significantly lower too, and that has been a red flag of sorts for me. He also has barely thrown is slider so far in 2014. Things are definitely not right and it may be only a matter of time until the long-time closer cannot get the job done anymore. It looks as if that time is now.

Kevin Siegrist Finally Gives Up a Run at Home

St. Louis Cardinals lefty reliever Kevin Siegrist has yet to surrender a run at Busch stadium. He has pitched 21 regular season innings at home and is still unscored upon. He has been pretty great overall for the Cardinals, but he has shown a tendency to walk a few batters in his MLB career and that may eventually come back to bite him. It is only a matter of time until the inevitable, but let’s rumble Siegrist. I’ll take the Hitman, you can have the field.

Ben Revere’s Homerless Streak Ends

In over 1,400 plate appearances, Revere has zero dingers. Yet he is just one bad outfield play or gust of wind away from doing the improbable, hitting a home run. Eventually, something has to give, right? If you look at Revere’s hit charts, he has come close to delivering a homer a few times in his career and has actually hit five in the minors. Despite the lack of power, he still brings plenty to the fantasy table with plus average and plus steals. Drafting him around pick 200 didn’t hurt either. Think of it this way, someone else selected Billy Hamilton around pick 50. ‘Nuff said.

 

You likely have heard about the Ultimate Warrior passing away Tuesday evening. Although I wasn’t the biggest wresting fanatic as a young kid, I was an Ultimate Warrior fan and I did watch my fair share of WWF/WCW on Saturday mornings, Monday nights, and Pay-Per-Views. I was four years of age when I saw the Ultimate Warrior beat Hulk Hogan at my grandfather’s house for the world title. I still have glimpses of the small room and television. When I was about five or six, I received a wrestling buddy (Million Dollar Man) from my parents after undergoing a surgical procedure. I was not a happy 10-year-old when Bret Hart lost to Shawn Michaels in their famous Iron Man match. Thinking about it now, there are plenty of small happy memories that I can attribute to wresting. We may outgrow the loves of our past, but that doesn’t mean the moments they gave us are forgotten.

Today, instead of watching the WWF WWE, I tune in to a lot of MMA and boxing. But wrestling started it all and was the first “sport” that made me care. It introduced the competitive spirit and fandom that is still with me now. Wrestling was there before my beginning interests in basketball at age seven, and baseball at age eight. But unless I have a child who falls for the WWE theatrics, my days of watching Wrestlemanias are over. After all, streaks are meant to be broken.

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