The first 2014 breakout player I wrote about this offseason was Carlos Carrasco. He wasn’t the only once-well-thought-of prospect to bloom last year as Jake Arrieta did so in the Senior Circuit for the Cubs. The one time Baltimore Oriole and former top-100 prospect per both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus, opened the year on the 15-day disabled list and pitched in five minor league games before getting a promotion to the Show in early May and dazzling for much of the year.

Arrieta’s late start to the season kept his innings just short of qualifying for the ERA title, but setting the innings minimum at 150 (he pitched 156.2) nets him lofty ranking on the leaderboards. Regardless of your preferred advanced measure of pitching performance, things came up roses for the 28-year old hurler. He ranked second in FIP (2.26), sixth in xFIP (2.73), seventh in SIERA (2.83), and 10th in ERA (2.53). I include his rank in ERA to illustrate there wasn’t a big gap in actual performance and ERA predictors like players such as Ricky Nolasco have previously suffered from. In other words, his strong underlying stats resulted in sterling results.

Speaking of those strong underlying stats, Arrieta’s strikeout talents were exemplary. His 27.2% strikeout rate was tied with Felix Hernandez for the seventh best, and it was supported by his ability to miss bats. His 10.2% swinging strike rate, per FanGraphs, ranked 25th among starters and easily bested the league average of 9.4%. He overwhelmed hitters with a power arsenal according to Brooks Baseball’s PITCHf/x data, leaning heavily on both a fourseam fastball and sinker as well as two breaking balls, a curveball and slider, while tossing his changeup just 5.62% of the time. His changeup usage came primarily against, you guessed it, opposite handed (left-handed) batters as Brooks Baseball credits him using it 9.98% of the time against lefties compared to just 1.39% of the time against right-handed batters. His pitch mix worked brilliantly to neutralize same-handed opponents who posted a lowly .234 wOBA against him as well as lefties that managed just a .251 wOBA facing him.

Digging a little deeper into Arrieta’s repertoire, he had three pitches that resulted in a whiff percentage north of 14% as Brooks Baseball has his changeup generating a 14.07% whiff rate, 14.74% on the slider, and 18.27% on his curveball. Two of three of those secondary offerings ranked well on the Baseball Prospectus PITCHf/x leaderboard in whiff/swing%. Because he threw fewer than 200 changeups, I dropped the minimum number thrown to 100 for qualifying, and his 34.55% whiff/swing rate on the changeup ranked 35th out of 135 qualified starting pitchers last year. He used his curveball and slider more frequently, so I bumped the qualifying pitch minimum to 200. Arrieta’s curve was one of the filthiest bat missers in the game last year, and his 42.62% whiff/swing rate ranked fourth best out of 105. When hitters did manage to get wood on the pitch, it induced a 54% groundball rate on balls in play. The slider wasn’t nearly as effective tallying a 25.94% whiff/swing rate that ranked 71st out of 95, but it did provide him a pitch with different break to confound hitters with and resulted in a solid 47% groundball rate on balls in play.

Arrieta is more than a junkballing pitcher relying on secondary pitches to tie up hitters. He’s a flame throwing beast whose 94.60 mph average on his fourseam fastball ranked 26th out of 178 in average velocity, and his 94.50 mph average on his sinker ranked even higher with him checking in 14th out of 139. His premium cheddar was too much for most hitters as he ranked 28th in whiff/swing rate (21.39%) on his fourseam fastball and coaxed a 49% groundball rate on balls in play. His sinker was no slouch either and his 12.59% whiff/swing rate ranked 49th, and predictably, was hammered into the ground at a high rate on balls in play (55%).

Unlike many hard throwing pitchers, Arrieta controls his deep and heat packed arsenal well. He walked just 6.7% of the batters he faced last year (7.6% was the league average according to FanGraphs). The total package from Arrieta is tantalizing. He threw a total of 176.2 innings in 2014 when you account for his 20 innings in the minors, and expecting the Cubs to allow him to reach the 200 inning plateau this season is reasonable. Arrieta enters this season ranked as a fantasy ace by me, ranking 12th on my preliminary starting pitcher rankings (coincidentally one spot behind Carrasco). He’ll be one of my favorite pitching targets as he’ll come cheaper than the more established stars at the position.