I recently posted my top 10 catchers for 2014. Our next stop around the diamond is first base. Historically, first base has been a haven for 30-40 home run mashers. We all know that offense is down in the current era; for a multitude of reasons. In 2013, only 5 first basemen hit 30 or more home runs – I’m not counting Adam Dunn because he rarely plays the field. Compare that to ten years ago; 10 first basemen hit 30 or more home runs in 2003. The position isn’t what it once was, but then again neither is the game itself. We have to adjust our expectations accordingly.

Last year we saw veterans scuffle (Pujols & Fielder) and young guys realize a little more of their potential and begin climbing their way up the ladder (Freeman & Hosmer). Is the youth invasion going to push some of the older fellas out of the top 10 in 2014?

Goldy sitting at number one shouldn’t shock anyone. I ranked him higher than Davis in my overall top 10 as well. The reasoning for that is that he adds value where Davis doesn’t. An extra double digit steals producer is a huge asset. I also believe he’ll be more of asset going forward in both average and OBP – whichever your league uses. Davis’ batted ball profile and swing and miss flaws lead me to believe that he’s more of a 40+ homer type guy going forward rather than 50+.

Edwin Encarnacion is one of my favorite players to watch hit. I may take some flak for placing him over Votto, but I can’t ignore his power. For the second season in a row E5 (he still has 3B eligibility in some leagues!) surpassed 35 homers while tossing in at least 7 steals. The most remarkable improvement in Encarnacion’s game though, has been his new approach. In the past two seasons he’s walked roughly 13% of the time. The increase in walks has allowed for him to post extremely good OBP’s of .384 and .370 in the past two seasons. He may seem older than he is, but fear not he’s only entering his age 31 season.

I’m not passing on that mammoth amount of power for anyone else at first base.

I can’t write much that hasn’t already been said about Joey Votto. He’s quite possibly the best pure hitter in the majors not named Miguel Cabrera. He’s definitely the most cerebral.  No one has a better idea of what to do at the plate than Joey Votto and no one uses the field like he does.

How is it even possible to slug .820 while going the other way? Joey Votto is amazing. Anyways, I’m not too worried about the RBI total. I’m fairly sure he’ll drive in close to 90 runs in 2014 just by being himself. The power outage, however, concerns me and that’s why he’s fourth on my list. I simply can’t choose him over guys that have a much better chance – at the moment – to hit 35+ homers.

Freddie Freeman is one of the best young hitters in the game. He’s improved in nearly every category since his second place ROY finish worthy 2011 campaign. He was able to finish 2nd at first base in 2013, due in large part to his success with runners in scoring position. I love Freddie, but hitting .443 with RISP isn’t exactly repeatable. The only things holding Freeman back from moving further up my rankings are his power numbers. While, he’s not yet in his “peak power years” his production has still seemingly plateaued in the low twenties for the moment. I believe there is more power in the tank – as does his batted ball distance. However, his batted ball profile isn’t necessarily the profile of a quintessential 30+ home run guy. Until something changes, this where he resides for me.

Ahh, Prince Fielder. One of the safest picks in any fantasy draft for the past 3 years. Prince had a down year in 2013; at least by standards we’ve grown accustomed to holding him to. I won’t get into the mental aspects that may have played a factor during 2013 because we have no way of quantifying how it affected him. However, we do know that he’s been in a power decline for the past few years.

As you can see, Fielder’s 2013 doesn’t appear to be an aberration. It appears that he’s simply in decline. There’s also this terrifying aging curve, courtesy of Fangraphs’, for players with, for lack of a better description, Fielder’s “body type.”

If you believe in that research, and I do, then it isn’t hard to form a somewhat confident conclusion that the old Prince Fielder might never return again.

I’ll admit that Hosmer has burned me in the past. He’s a hard player to pin down, but long story short I believe in his talent. Hosmer does two things very well offensively: he hits for average and he’s an efficient base stealer (27/32 in 2012 & 2013). The main knock on Hosmer’s offensive ability has been question marks surrounding his power. He’s never been a tremendous flyball heavy hitter, but he did make improvements as the months went on in 2013.

Hosmer’s FB% increased every month – save September & October – after it bottomed out in May. It was easily noticed in his overall production considering how much better he was in the second half as opposed to the first half. Hosmer’s problem is getting the ball in the air, once he gets the ball in the air he has plenty of power to get it out of the yard. In fact, according to ESPN’s home run tracker Hosmer’s average true distance on his homer runs was roughly 418 feet. If he had swatted one more out of the yard that would have placed him second in average distance, behind noted baseball God Mike Trout. If Hosmer pairs more flyballs with his ability to add value on the bases we’re looking at a top tier 1B.

I feel like I’ve read about Adrian Gonzalez ad nauseum over the years and I’m sure you have as well so I’ll save some of your attention span. His power isn’t what it used to be, but he’s still an extremely safe bet to hit around 20-25 homers and drive in nearly 100 runs while hitting .300. What ya see is what ya get with Gonzalez.

Albert Pujols‘ contract is a terrible terrible thing for the LA Angels. He’s not worth the money anymore and he definitely isn’t worth the fantasy investment it used to require to have him on your team. Despite all of bad effects of aging he’s still stayed productive – fantasy wise – over the past few seasons. Steamer has him projected to put together a season that would comprise of: 29 homers, 81 runs, 91 RBI, a .282 batting average, and a .357 OBP. That seems about right, if he’s able to stay on the field, which hopefully isn’t a problem after having such a long offseason.

I couldn’t decide between Buster Posey and Anthony Rizzo at 10. I won’t write much about Posey here because, if he’s on your team you’re likely starting him at catcher. Rizzo, like Hosmer, has a special place with me. I, like everyone else, was extremely disappointed with the 2013 season that Mr. Rizzo put up. I even wrote about it here.

Steamer’s 2014 projections for Mr. Rizzo still make me absolutely giddy. I realize some of you may wonder why I would pick Rizzo over guys like: Allen Craig, Mark Trumbo, and Brandon Belt. The reason, for me, is simple: Rizzo has more power upside than all of them – save Trumbo. Rizzo’s floor – at least hopefully – was 2013. As a result of his power upside, I believe is ceiling is higher than anyone else left on the board at this point.

Deeper Down The Board

Brandon Moss singled handedly saved one of my teams in 2013.  He provided my utility spot with a tremendous amount of power during times of need. In fact, I started out basically plugging him in every so often to starting him nearly every day by the end of the season. You might have done the same, considering that Moss finished at the 13th best first baseman in fantasy for 2013. Moss definitely has some of the most impressive power at first base, but he also has some huge flaws.

Moss is essentially worthless versus LHP. He doesn’t belong in any fantasy lineup when the A’s are facing a LH starter; they’d likely by better off by not playing him as well. Despite all of that, if you’re in a deeper league and/or a league that allows you to stash players on your bench, Moss could be extremely beneficial to your team. If you were to pair Brandon Moss with another under the radar option such as: Adam Lind, Nick Swisher, or Chris Carter (if you’re into huge power) you could form a very formidable platoon at 1B and use your early round draft picks on other spots in your lineup.

What’s your top 10?