2014 Fantasy Baseball: Potential Pitching Sleepers
Note: This article is simply a preview of content that was originally published in TheFantasyFix.com’s 2014 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide. Average draft position and other data have not been updated since. You can find the draft guide here.
All ADP data is courtesy of ESPN. Steamer projections are used, except in cases where playing time projections were sparse.
Dan Haren (LAD) – ADP 264 overall: Vintage Dan Haren decided to make an appearance last year after returning from the DL. After returning from the DL on July 8, Haren compiled a 3.29 ERA over 87.1 innings. His 3.29 ERA over that time frame was filled out nicely by a 24% strikeout rate. He’s headed to pitcher friendly Chavez Ravine in 2014. Jump aboard.
Steamer Projection: 173 IP, 12-10, 7.37 K/9 (19.7%), 1.87 BB/9 (5.0%), 1.16 WHIP, 3.54 ERA, 3.55 FIP
Alex Wood (ATL) – ADP 278 overall: My love for this Braves’ starter is well documented by now. Wood’s ability to strike out opposing batters, limit walks, and get a ton of ground balls is a fantastic mixture. Similar to Salazar, he’ll likely have somewhat of an innings limit, but the innings he throws – think ~170 – should be very good. His projection below only projects for 83 innings due to the time he spent in the bullpen in 2013, so pay more attention to his rate stats.
Steamer Projection: 83 IP, 6-4, 8.71 K/9 (23.0%), 3.31 BB/9 (8.7%), 1.24 WHIP, 3.44 ERA, 3.36 FIP
Ivan Nova (NYY) – ADP 308 overall: Nova seems like he has been around forever. Maybe he has. Maybe your league will be full of people who are tired of giving him chances and have forgotten about him. If so, good for you. Nova changed his repertoire in 2013, which allowed him to keep his strikeout rates in line with his 2012 numbers and groundball rate back up to 53.5%. Nova’s decidedly post-hype at this point, so a handsome discount is likely.
Steamer Projection: 189 IP, 12-11, 7.18 K/9 (18.7%), 2.93 BB/9 (7.6%), 1.31 WHIP, 4.01 ERA, 3.70 FIP
Nathan Eovaldi (MIA) – ADP 393 overall: He throws hard; really hard. No one in the majors had a fastball that was, on average, faster than Eovaldi’s 97 mph mark in 2013. His secondary pitches leave a little to be desired, but it’s hard to ignore heat like that. When you couple his fastball with his home ballpark, there is plenty to like about Eovaldi in deeper leagues for 2014. His projection (below) seems a little light to me. I expect him to be able to have a much better season as far as run prevention is concerned.
Steamer Projection: 173 IP, 9-13, 7.06 K/9 (18%), 3.71 BB/9 (9.5%), 1.39 WHIP, 4.35 ERA, 3.99 FIP