In today’s separated at birth, we aren’t necessarily looking at similar players. As much as I would love to do that, there are some positions where there aren’t compelling comparisons on that level. Instead, we are looking at two young shortstops from different parts of the jungle. Xander Bogearts is about as highly touted as they come. As recently as last season, he was rated among the top five shortstop prospects in all of baseball. His counterpart today, Jonathan Villar, was barely among the top five shortstops in the Astros organization.

MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo rated both Carlos Correa and Nolan Fontana above him. Despite that, the Astros brought Villar up last season and are giving him the first crack at the shortstop position. Naturally, you would expect Bogearts to be the better of the two and things might turn out that way, but we will go through the Player A and Player B game again to discover that for ourselves. One of the things we will notice are the various layers of performance that we have to sift through.

On the surface, Bogearts might still be the better prospect and when we look at things through a sabermetric lens, it might still turn out that way. Still, we have to look at things through a fantasy lens and when we look at things through that lens we might end up seeing something different. After all, sabermetrics are great, but sometimes they get in the way of achieving ultimate success. Let’s take a look at how each one is doing at the quarter pole. Again, we will disguise the two players for the fun of it.

PA        AVG        HR         Runs        RBI          SB          BB

Player A            140       .220          5              16              13           10             9

Player B            153        .260          1              15                 5             1            19

A frequent reader asked me if it is was time to give on Bogearts. I was flabbergasted by the question. No matter which player he is, I wouldn’t give up on him. Yet, when we look at these numbers we see quite clearly where sabermetrics and fantasy baseball separate. Player A has a lower batting average AND fewer walks than Player B. That is a nasty combination and it gives him an OBP lower than .300. In real production terms, that’s damn near terrible. Yet, when you look at the rest of the numbers across the board you’ll notice that he is more productive in each of the other four categories. That makes this a slam dunk in fantasy terms.

Since these two guys are not particularly similar, it probably is impossible to keep their identity a secret until the end. Still, we will keep us the charade for appearances sake. The plate discipline data will give us more insight into what is to come for each of these guys. The early going seems somewhat troublesome for both guys (for different reasons), but the plate discipline data may end up telling us a different story.

BABIP         SO%           BB%             Oswing%           Contact%

Player A             .291            30.7             6.4                 27.4                   70.4

Player B             .355            24.2           12.4                 23.5                   72.4

Here, we see Player A with a bit of a comeback. His BABIP is not abnormally low, but it is a bit below average given the amount of speed that player has. The reality is that we should probably expect him to carry a BABIP between .310 and .320. Player B has less speed and yet is carrying an abnormally high BABIP. That will probably end up regressing as the season moves forward. If both players regress to the mean we might end up looking at similar batting averages.

Both players have similar rates on swings outside the zone and on contact. So, the only major difference comes in the walk rates. That is the main reason why I am bullish on Player B as an overall offensive performer, but in terms of fantasy value, we simply cannot ignore the production that Player A gives us in all of the categories. The funny thing (like in the third base edition) the lesser player is the player that was drafted higher. It’s always interesting how these things turn out. Even with the production, Player B is still owned at a 69 percent rate as compared to Player A’s 53 percent rate.

ISO        SecA         LD%         GB%          FB%          HR/FB

Player A                .205        .346        17.5           53.8           28.8              21.7

Player B                .099       .237         23.4          39.4           37.2               2.9

Ask all 30 general managers which player they would rather have and they would all answer Bogearts. Yet, if you ask every fantasy owner who they would rather have right now it would be Player A (Villar). It’s funny how this works, but you can see it in the secondary average. Secondary average measures a player’s contribution through his patience, power, and speed. Bogearts (Player B) has a built in advantage in patience and he still is lagging behind Villar. Naturally, the question in the long-term is whether Villar’s lack of plate discipline will catch up with him. It’s hard to carry anyone with a sub .300 OBP for very long and this is particularly true given the presence of Fontana and Correa in their system. Yet, if Villar improves in that area, he may end up forcing Correa to shift to third and Fontana to shift to second (or become a utility guy). One thing is for sure, he gives you every other category under the sun.