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2014 Fantasy Baseball: The Rookie Report, June 24

Philadelphia Phillies v St. Louis Cardinals

There haven’t been a ton of changes on the rookie front, of late. Mostly, the rookie class is performing to expectations.

Name Team PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Jose Abreu White Sox 266 39 21 57 0.270 0.320 0.598 0.388
George Springer Astros 258 32 13 38 1 0.241 0.345 0.459 0.355
Rougned Odor Rangers 112 12 3 17 1 0.291 0.321 0.466 0.342
Chris Owings Diamondbacks 250 26 6 21 7 0.282 0.319 0.466 0.342
Xander Bogaerts Red Sox 305 36 6 19 2 0.264 0.348 0.401 0.335
Yangervis Solarte Yankees 262 26 6 29 0.263 0.345 0.404 0.334
Josmil Pinto Twins 158 19 7 16 0.222 0.323 0.407 0.326
Nick Castellanos Tigers 252 20 5 27 1 0.269 0.306 0.406 0.312
Billy Hamilton Reds 266 36 4 23 31 0.273 0.309 0.396 0.310
Jon Singleton Astros 74 10 4 10 1 0.200 0.284 0.415 0.303
Mike Olt Cubs 174 15 10 25 0.149 0.230 0.364 0.263
Kolten Wong Cardinals 171 14 1 16 9 0.228 0.282 0.304 0.263

As expected, Jose Abreu and George Springer are pacing the field. And they’re doing it in completely different ways. Springer doesn’t swing as often as Abreu does – 48% versus 55.6% – but he also makes much less contact – 71.6% versus 86.0%. Abreu’s swing percentage is that much higher, despite the fact that he sees 7% less fewer pitches in the zone than Springer. So far, Abreu’s gotten by on contact ability, while Springer’s lived off of making hard contact. Different approaches. Good results on both sides.

Springer’s teammate, Jon Singleton resides somewhere in between Springer and Abreu. He takes the bat off of his shoulder more frequently than Springer, and his contact rate is a little higher, although it’s nowhere near Abreu’s. At this point, Singleton has very much been “all-or-nothing.” His production should even out a bit going forward, but his strikeout rate – which sits at 33% – is worrisome.

Lastly, Billy Hamilton has actually been better than expected in 2014; at least, in my opinion. I wasn’t sold on Hamilton’s bat. My opinion doesn’t matter to Hamilton, however. Since April 7 – ignoring Hamilton’s horrid opening week – he has slashed .288/.321/.416, smashing four homers and stealing 31 bases. Hamilton’s largest question mark coming into 2014 was his ability to get on base. It’s fair to say he’s answered that question pretty well.

Name Team G GS IP K% BB% K-BB% ERA FIP
Dellin Betances Yankees 31 42.0 45.2% 7.1% 38.1% 1.50 0.92
Masahiro Tanaka Yankees 15 15 106.2 28.5% 4.1% 24.5% 2.11 2.76
James Paxton Mariners 2 2 12.0 30.2% 4.7% 25.6% 2.25 3.59
Collin McHugh Astros 11 11 65.1 26.8% 9.3% 17.5% 2.76 2.96
Yordano Ventura Royals 14 14 84.1 20.7% 7.1% 13.6% 3.20 3.36
Roenis Elias Mariners 16 16 98.2 21.0% 8.4% 12.6% 3.74 4.03
Jake Odorizzi Rays 15 15 77.2 27.4% 9.0% 18.4% 4.29 3.15
Carlos Martinez Cardinals 32 2 43.2 19.7% 10.4% 9.3% 4.33 3.48
Trevor Bauer Indians 8 8 47 23.2% 8.9% 14.3% 4.4 4.51
Marcus Stroman Blue Jays 9 4 28 17.8% 4.7% 13.2% 5.14 3.69

Heading into 2014, I wasn’t a fan of Jake Odorizzi. He lacked the ability to miss bats. He had a good strikeout rate at Triple-A, but according to scouts that was mostly due to his polish, not the quality of his stuff. And so, upon promotion, his strikeout rate plummeted from 25.2% to 18%.

Odorizzi threw all of that of the window. Riding three pitches with swinging strike rates greater than 11%, he’s striking out over 27% of the batters that step in the box – the sixth highest rate among qualified starters.

In April, Odorizzi was having a ton of trouble turning over lineups, which, not coincidentally, wasn’t allowing him to go very deep into games. He’s been much better since the calendar turned to May, though. In ten starts, he’s thrown 54 innings, which is a little less than we hope for, but still an improvement. In those ten starts, Odorizzi has a 3.17 ERA, which is backed up by a 2.61 FIP. He sure looks like he’s going to prove quite a lot of people wrong, myself included.

Last on the list today, Carlos Martinez. Martinez was forced into the rotation thanks to injury concerns in St. Louis. I’ve remarked before on Martinez’ struggles versus left handed batters. In the bullpen, Mike Matheny – when he wants to – can limit the amount of lefties Martinez faces. He can’t help him with those matchups when he pitches as a starter, so Carlos could be exposed a little going forward if he stays in the rotation for a little while.

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